Long History, Short Memories
NEED TO KNOW
Long History, Short Memories
ISRAEL/ WEST BANK & GAZA
European Union foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell recently told Israeli newspaper Haaretz that Israel’s right to defend itself had a limit. He also decried the “catastrophic level of killing, destruction and starvation” that Israel has caused in the Gaza Strip in response to Hamas’ attacks on Oct. 7 that killed more than 1,200 people in Israel, Politico added.
That’s quite a turnaround for the EU official and other leaders in Europe who echo him these days. After Oct. 7, European leaders moved to ban peace rallies or pro-Palestinian protests, often violently, cracked down on student sit-ins and even barred Palestinian speakers at academic conferences in an attempt to show unwavering support for Israel.
But over the past six months, that has changed. Now, Borrell’s comments reflect how many Europeans are growing increasingly frantic and even angry over Israel’s attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.
“Israel’s ties with the EU are under unprecedented stress at this point in time,” Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy fellow at the Berlin-based European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank, told CNN.
Many German leaders don’t share Borrell’s views – or at least not publicly. Many, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz, view their pro-Israeli stance as the bedrock of their country’s foreign policy and their sacred duty due to their genocidal history during World War II, World Politics Review explained. Still, even that resolve is cracking as polls show that the German public is almost evenly split in its support of Israeli operations in Gaza.
Meanwhile, many Germans are upset by International Court of Justice (ICJ) decisions this year that have found fault with Israel’s policies before and after Oct. 7. And they were shocked by Nicaragua’s request to the ICJ to order Berlin to stop supplying weapons to Israel that were reputedly enabling the alleged genocide in Gaza.
“The war in Gaza brings two pillars of German identity into contradiction: the pillar of ‘never again’ and the historical responsibility to Israel, and the pillar of international law and human rights,” German Institute for International and Security Affairs expert Peter Lintl told the Economist.
Israel has killed more than 42,000 people in Gaza, according to Gaza health officials, while crippling the tiny region’s infrastructure, setting the stage for a humanitarian crisis that will last for years. On Friday, United Nations officials warned that the situation in the northern Gaza Strip is “apocalyptic”. “The entire Palestinian population in North Gaza is at imminent risk of dying from disease, famine and violence,” said the heads of UN agencies, including UNICEF and the World Food Programme.
In response, European leaders have called for an end to weapons exports to Israel, condemned Israeli for banning the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) for allegedly aiding and abetting Hamas, and criticized Israeli forces for firing on European soldiers deployed as UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. As CNN reported, French President Emmanuel Macron, for example, said Netanyahu “must not forget that his country was created by a decision of the UN.”
The EU has also increased sanctions on settlers and is considering targeting more Israeli officials.
Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris even called for the EU to reconsider its trade deals with Israel, noted the Jewish News Service, even as EU officials have resisted efforts to ban Israeli products in European shops.
Meanwhile, protests erupted in European cities such as Stockholm, Amsterdam and Vienna over the weekend, with demonstrators voicing outrage against Israel’s military actions in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.
More than a year after war broke out in Gaza, this time European officials did nothing to stop them.
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Playing With Fire
EUROPE
European security officials are investigating a suspected Russian plot to place incendiary devices on cargo flights bound from Germany to other European destinations, viewing it as a trial run for future attacks targeting aircraft flying to North America, the Washington Post reported.
Authorities first uncovered the plot in July when a package – disguised as an electric massager but containing magnesium-based flammable material – ignited at a DHL cargo hub in Leipzig, Germany.
Another similar device caught fire in Birmingham, England.
German authorities tested replicas of the devices and reported that the magnesium fires would be difficult to extinguish with standard aircraft firefighting systems. If ignited mid-flight, especially over the ocean, these devices could result in a catastrophic crash.
They described the discovery of the package as a “lucky coincidence,” saying the device ignited on the ground and spared the aircraft from a potential disaster, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Investigators suggested that the incendiary devices were part of a covert plan to test the feasibility of smuggling dangerous materials onto flights destined for the United States and Canada. They added that some packages without incendiary components had successfully reached North American addresses as part of a trial run for a wider attack.
The revelations come more than a week after Polish authorities arrested four individuals connected to the plot and are trying to locate two more suspects. Meanwhile, Lithuanian police detained a man initially identified as Igor Prudnikov, who turned out to be Alexander Suranovas, suspected of acting as a Russian intelligence proxy.
Officials now believe the operation is part of a larger sabotage campaign by Russian intelligence operatives aimed at disrupting Western infrastructure as tensions grow between Russia and NATO over the war in Ukraine.
In response, the US Transportation Security Administration has implemented heightened security measures for US-bound cargo flights.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has launched its own probe into the Birmingham fire and is coordinating efforts with European law enforcement.
British intelligence officials have publicly condemned Russia’s increasingly “reckless” actions, but the Kremlin has dismissed the allegations as “Russophobic hysteria” and denied any involvement.
Shaking It Up
PUERTO RICO
Puerto Ricans headed to the polls Tuesday in a historic gubernatorial election that could break decades of political tradition, with a race that pits a pro-statehood party looking to win an unprecedented third consecutive term, and a third-party candidate who could become the first leader of the island outside of its two major parties, the Associated Press reported.
Candidates include Jenniffer González, representing the pro-statehood New Progressive Party (NPP), and Juan Dalmau of the Puerto Rican Independence Party and part of the “Alianza” coalition with the Citizen Victory Movement.
The election marks a turning point after years of economic challenges and voter disillusionment, as frustration grows with the political establishment amid an ongoing debt crisis, natural disasters, and a US-appointed oversight board that has imposed austerity measures on the island, the newswire wrote.
As a result, Dalmau’s coalition has focused on government transparency over Puerto Rico’s political status, appealing to young voters who have grown up during these crises and high unemployment. Running against González and Dalmau are Jesús Manuel Ortiz of the Popular Democratic Party (PDP) and Javier Jiménez from the conservative Project Dignity party.
Alianza’s rise is driven by calls for change following the 2016 debt crisis that left Puerto Rico with $72 billion in public debt and saw the 2016 PROMESA law place the economy under US federal oversight in order to restructure its debts.
This economic strain – coupled with the devastation from Hurricane Maria in 2017 and a series of earthquakes in 2020 – has contributed to record-low voter turnout, the tally already having fallen to 55 percent in the 2016 gubernatorial vote, NBC News noted.
With nearly two million eligible voters and heightened scrutiny on the election process amid fraud allegations, analysts believe that increased turnout among young voters could tip the scales in favor of a non-traditional candidate.
Voters are also casting ballots in a non-binding referendum on Puerto Rico’s political status, choosing among statehood, independence, or independence with free association.
However, the referendum’s result is symbolic and – regardless of the outcome – any status change will require US Congressional approval.
Staying the Course
HUNGARY
Hungarian lawmakers voted this week to extend a state of emergency for another six months, a move that critics say allows Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to rule by decree and erode the rule of law in the European Union nation, Bloomberg reported.
On Monday, Hungary’s parliament – dominated by Orbán’s Fidesz party – extended the state of emergency until May 2025, which will allow the prime minister to issue decrees, overwrite bills without going through the legislative process and allow the government to speed up legal changes.
Observers said that Orbán has employed states of emergency in the past: In 2016, his administration declared a so-called state of danger because of the migration crisis. Four years later, parliament expanded the government’s scope of authority over concerns about the Covid-19 pandemic.
In mid-2022, the justification shifted to citing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, after a constitutional amendment permitted rule by decree in cases such as war in a neighboring country.
Orbán and his nationalist Fidesz party have come under fire from the EU and rule-of-law advocates, who allege that the state of emergency laws have eroded the checks and balances on his power.
The bloc is currently withholding more than $21 billion in funding for Hungary because of rule-of-law complaints.
Meanwhile, Hungary’s parliament on Monday amended a law that had placed senior politicians, including Orbán’s ministers, in control of foundations managing public universities. The new amendment prohibits top officials from holding these positions and sets term limits for trustees.
That law had led the EU to suspend 21 Hungarian universities from the Erasmus Programme, impacting thousands of Hungarian students studying abroad, and barred university researchers from EU-funded projects.
DISCOVERIES
The Rule of Threes
A lot of black holes across the universe are part of a binary system, which means they include the celestial body and a secondary object – such as a star or another black hole.
But a new study on a far-away system has shown that black holes don’t always come in pairs.
Researchers at MIT and Caltech recently identified for the first time a “black hole triple” system about 8,000 light years from Earth.
Known as V404 Cygni, it consists of a central black hole consuming a nearby star while a second star orbits from an astonishing distance, roughly every 70,000 Earth years.
The research team discovered the cosmic anomaly while sifting through the star-tracking data from the European Space Agency’s Gaia mission, which has precisely mapped stars’ motions since 2014.
For decades, astronomers had initially dismissed the far-flung star as an unrelated background object, but the recent analysis showed that it is gravitationally bound to the black hole system, which forms an intricate cosmic trio.
“The tertiary star has actually been hiding in plain sight for more than 30 years … they just all assumed the star was a chance alignment,” co-author Kareem El-Badry said in a statement for Caltech.
Kevin Burdge, a physicist at MIT and the study’s lead author, described the gravitational bond between the black hole and the distant star as a “weak string of gravity,” akin to a kite being pulled by a spider web.
“If you tugged too hard, the web would break, and you’d lose the kite,” he told MIT News.
The study also provided some new theories about how V404 Cygni formed.
Typically, black holes are thought to form from the violent explosion of a dying star, known as a supernova, which would likely eject any loosely bound companions.
But the recent findings suggested that this black hole was born through “direct collapse,” where the star implodes without an explosion, leaving surrounding objects undisturbed.
The authors noted that the study opens a new chapter in black hole research, including questions about how common triple systems are.
“Triples open up evolutionary pathways that are not possible for pure binaries,” explained El-Badry. “People have actually predicted before that black hole binaries might form mostly through triple evolution, but there was never any direct evidence until now.”