The Holy Grail
NEED TO KNOW
The Holy Grail
VANUATU
Last spring, Vanuatu’s voters approved new measures in a referendum to take effect this year that would forbid lawmakers from party hopping – a practice known locally as “jump-jump” that occurs mid-term.
It was among the changes that proponents hoped would bring political stability to the small, Pacific island nation.
Because here, political stability has become “the holy grail.”
The country has had four prime ministers in the past three years. Now, the country is about to get its fifth when voters go to the polls on Thursday in a snap election to choose their new lawmakers. And they are not happy about it, say observers.
“To be honest, nobody expected (this),” Mike Esrome Kaun, who worked on the campaign for the “yes” vote for the referendum, told the Australian Broadcasting Commission. “This is disappointing, a stumbling block that has affected life here.”
The election follows the dissolution of parliament in November, a preemptive move by Prime Minister Charlot Salwai to head off yet another vote of no-confidence by disgruntled lawmakers unhappy with the leader.
“Such motions have in recent years come to define Vanuatu’s creaky democracy,” wrote Agence France-Presse. For example, the newswire noted that Vanuatu changed prime ministers four times between November 2022 and October 2023, usually because of successful no-confidence votes.
Salwai will run again for his seat as will former prime ministers Ishmael Kalsakau and Bob Loughman. They will join more than 180 candidates in 52 constituencies slated to take part.
Vanuatu is one of the more democratic states in the region, according to the Global State of Democracy Initiative. But this democratic vigor comes at a price – the frequent turnover of government, the highest rate in the region.
“The impacts of disrupted leadership and political instability are highly visible,” Anna Naupa, a scholar from Vanuatu, wrote in BenarNews, a regional news service. “Government decision-making and service delivery is grindingly slow.”
That’s especially a problem right now, say observers.
On Dec. 17, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake that struck off Vanuatu killed at least 14 people, injured hundreds more, and caused widespread damage across the archipelago, the Associated Press reported.
It toppled buildings in the capital of Port Vila. Recovery is expected to cost a quarter of a billion dollars, according to Hawaii Public Radio. That is money the country doesn’t have.
Meanwhile, the earthquake has caused a significant economic hit, with some businesses announcing that they will not open until later this year.
Still, businesses in the country are used to recovery from disasters because of the country’s frequent tropical cyclones: Vanuatu is one of the world’s most disaster-prone nations because of sporadic eruptions from the Manaro Voui volcano as well as devastating cyclones and frequent earthquakes.
Still, the biggest problem, say locals, is that the government turnovers delay addressing big issues such as economic development or now “an evolving economic emergency,” according to Peter Judge of the Vanuatu-based Pacific Consulting Limited, writing in Devpolicy Blog.
He notes that the economy has contracted by 3 percent since 2019 while income per capita declined 11 percent in that period. “There is no country at this income level which provides core government services to an acceptable quality,” said Judge.
Vanuatuans know this already.
Locals have been grappling with a lack of services, poor educational and economic opportunities, and high inflation for years. Businesses, meanwhile, have faced increasingly tough conditions, particularly with inter-island transport and air connectivity – Air Vanuatu collapsed in 2024. Meanwhile, the youth unemployment rate is at 10.7 percent and rising even as the country faces a skills drain, the IMF said.
Community leaders say the country’s problems need a stable and effective government to solve these problems as well as prepare for the looming “climate emergency.” Voters hope the new measures approved by last year’s referendum that will come into play after this election will help. They say it won’t be soon enough.
“At this point,” said community leader, Georgilla Worworbu, “enough is enough.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
A Small Sliver of Peace
ISRAEL/ WEST BANK & GAZA
Israel and Hamas reached a long-awaited ceasefire agreement Wednesday that will temporarily halt more than 15 months of brutal conflict in the Gaza Strip, a move that will facilitate the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and allow critical humanitarian aid to reach displaced civilians, ABC News reported.
The breakthrough came after months of negotiations in the Qatari capital Doha brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
Set to begin Sunday, the first phase of the agreement includes a six-week ceasefire, during which Hamas will release 33 hostages, including women, children, and the elderly, in exchange for Israel freeing around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.
Mediators confirmed that humanitarian aid will flow into Gaza during this period and displaced Palestinians will be allowed to return to northern areas of the enclave, most of which lies in ruin.
The deal also requires the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas in Gaza.
However, Israel’s presence in key strategic zones, such as the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border, will be discussed in later negotiations. Mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the US will monitor the implementation of the ceasefire to ensure compliance from both sides.
The second phase of the agreement will focus on the release of remaining hostages and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces, while the third phase will address the return of the remains of deceased hostages and the reconstruction of Gaza. The United Nations has pledged to support rebuilding efforts and expand humanitarian relief for Gaza.
The conflict began on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas and its allies launched an attack on southern Israel that left about 1,200 people dead and saw around 250 others kidnapped. Israel’s response resulted in a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with more than 46,000 Palestinians killed to date, according to Gazan health officials.
Israel confirmed that 405 soldiers died during the war.
As news of the agreement spread on Wednesday, celebrations erupted across Gaza and Israel, with families of hostages and displaced Palestinians expressing relief and disbelief, wrote CBS News.
US President Joe Biden hailed the deal as a significant diplomatic achievement, emphasizing its potential to reunite families and alleviate Gaza’s humanitarian crisis. Biden also confirmed that Americans are among the hostages set to be released in the first phase.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement that the last details were still being ironed out and that it hoped they “will be finalized tonight” And that he would comment on the deal when it was “sealed.”
Hints of obstacles remaining came early Thursday when Netanyahu said Hamas’ insistence on determining which Palestinian prisoners would be released was backtracking on the deal, the Associated Press reported, while the newswire listed praise from governments and aid agencies worldwide for the agreement.
Netanyahu’s reticence may be connected to domestic politics: His governing coalition depends on the support of two hardline factions whose leaders have threatened to quit the government over the planned release of Palestinian prisoners and only the partial release of the hostages. Although opposition leaders have vowed to support the ceasefire deal, the loss of his allies could lead to the collapse of the coalition and trigger early elections.
Meanwhile, Hamas said in a statement that the ceasefire was “the result of the legendary resilience of our great Palestinian people and our valiant resistance in the Gaza Strip.”
Crime and Punishment
SOUTH KOREA
Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested early Wednesday on insurrection charges stemming from his controversial Dec. 3 declaration of martial law, signaling an intensifying political crisis that has divided the nation, NPR reported.
The dramatic arrest, the first of a sitting president in South Korea, followed a pre-dawn raid on Yoon’s presidential residence in central Seoul, involving more than 3,200 law enforcement officers.
Led by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO), Wednesday’s operation comes nearly two weeks after a failed attempt to detain Yoon on charges of insurrection.
During the earlier raid, Yoon’s security detail resisted law enforcement, creating a five-hour standoff that ended with police retreating.
On Wednesday, police dismantled barricades and used ladders and wire cutters to breach the compound, while anti-Yoon protesters and his supporters gathered outside in freezing temperatures.
After a two-hour negotiation, the embattled leader surrendered. He later released a video in which he called the investigation “illegal” but said he complied to avoid violence between his security detail and police.
The charges against Yoon stem from his brief imposition of martial law last month when he deployed troops to the National Assembly in what lawmakers called an unconstitutional attempt to arrest opposition figures. Parliament overturned the declaration hours later and lawmakers impeached Yoon on Dec. 14.
Analysts say Yoon’s arrest has intensified public and political divisions in South Korea.
A recent Gallup Korea poll found that 64 percent of respondents support his impeachment, with younger South Koreans particularly critical of what they say is his authoritarian overreach. Many have participated in protests demanding his removal.
However, Yoon’s conservative supporters warned that his detention threatens the country’s stability, with his party’s approval rating rising to 34 percent, its highest since mid-2023.
Now, the CIO has 48 hours to question Yoon before seeking an additional arrest warrant or releasing him.
Having been taken to and held overnight at the Seoul Detention Centre, Yoon was to refuse to attend further questioning Thursday, Reuters reported his lawyer as saying. But even if he is released, Yoon remains impeached and acting President Choi Sang-mok will continue to retain control of the government, according to the Washington Post.
The country’s constitutional court is now deliberating whether to uphold his impeachment or reinstate him as president. If the impeachment is upheld, South Korea must hold a new presidential election within two months. Yoon failed to appear earlier this week for the proceedings. They resume Thursday.
A Reprieve
CUBA
Cuba will release hundreds of political prisoners, the government announced this week, after the US said it would remove the Caribbean nation from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, the Associated Press reported.
On Tuesday, Cuban officials said they will “gradually” release 553 prisoners, most of whom were detained after their participation in anti-government protests.
The US and human rights organizations have condemned those arrests as violations of human rights.
In return, Cuba will be removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, which includes Iran, Syria, and North Korea.
The country was first added to the list in 1982 because it supported revolutionary movements and armed groups in Latin America, before being removed in 2015 by President Obama. It was added again to the list in 2021 by then-President Donald Trump.
The release and delisting are part of a Vatican-brokered agreement between the US and Cuba, the BBC wrote.
While not directly linking the release of prisoners with the US decision, Cuba’s foreign ministry said they were pleased to be removed from the list because now, foreign businesses can work with Cuba freely.
Even so, Cuban officials described it as “limited” in scope as the country remains under US sanctions, which has contributed to a severe economic crisis resulting in shortages of fuel, food, medicine, and electricity, France 24 added.
Observers described the moves as a sign of rapprochement between Cuba and the US that could help alleviate the island’s dire economic conditions. Still, others suggested that the president-elect, Donald Trump, will reverse the move after he takes office next week.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel has said his country was prepared for “more difficult circumstances” after Trump’s inauguration.
DISCOVERIES
Lead Astray
Lead pollution is often seen as a modern-day problem.
But new research suggests that widespread pollution in the form of airborne lead was affecting health and lowering IQs during the Roman Empire, according to a new study.
“Human or industrial activities 2,000 years ago were already having continental-scale impacts on human health,” Joe McConnell, lead author of a new study, told NBC News. “Roman-era lead pollution is the earliest unambiguous example of human impacts on the environment.”
For roughly two centuries starting in 27 B.C., Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa had a period of relative stability and prosperity, known as the Pax Romana, fueled by huge mining operations that produced silver for the empire’s currency.
The problem is that this type of mining creates a lot of lead – one ounce of silver produces about 10,000 ounces of lead, researchers said.
And lead is a powerful neurotoxin and exposure is associated with learning disabilities, reproductive problems, mental health issues, and increased risk of hearing loss, among other effects.
McConnell and his team discovered the ancient lead pollution after detecting it in ice layers collected in Russia and Greenland that date back to the Roman Empire, according to the Desert Research Institute. The lead was released into the atmosphere from mining operations for silver, traveled on air currents, and became part of snow in the Arctic, the researchers hypothesized.
While the levels of lead detected in the Arctic were low, the lead concentrations would have thinned out over the long journey from the southern European mines.
The researchers, meanwhile, used powerful computer models of the planet’s atmosphere and made assumptions about the location of the mining sites to estimate the amount of lead originally emitted by Roman mining operations.
“This is the first study to take a pollution record from an ice core and invert it to get atmospheric concentrations of pollution and then assess human impacts,” McConnell said in a statement. “The idea that we can do this for 2,000 years ago is pretty novel and exciting.”
The researchers calculated that between 3,300 to 4,600 tons of lead were being emitted into the atmosphere each year by the mining operations. The researchers then used modern-day data to estimate how much lead would have entered the bloodstreams of those in ancient Rome.
The researchers believe that in ancient Rome, toxic lead was so pervasive in the air that it most likely dropped the average person’s IQ by 2.5 to 3 points.
“Lead is known to have a wide range of human health impacts, but we chose to focus on cognitive decline because it’s something we can put a number on,” study co-author Nathan Chellman, said in a statement. “An IQ reduction of 2 to 3 points doesn’t sound like much, but when you apply that to essentially the entire European population, it’s kind of a big deal.”