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Bullets and Ballots

MOZAMBIQUE

Catholic bishops in the southern African country of Mozambique recently urged electoral observers to be “truthful and objective in their reporting” ahead of the presidential election on Oct. 9.

The message, reported in the Association for Catholic Information in Africa, reflected how Mozambiquans hope this election will cement the country’s transition to a democracy after years of internal conflict, poor governance and an expanding insurgency.

As the Robert Lansing Institute explained, an important difference between Daniel Chapo of the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo) – the political party that has ruled the country since independence from Portugal in 1975 – and his three opposition candidates is how to handle the Islamic terrorists behind the surging insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado province.

These insurgents – affiliated with the Islamic State – have fought against the central government in the capital Maputo for a decade, killing thousands and displacing millions as they rape, pillage homes, schools and other institutions, wrote World Politics Review.

Three years ago, the jihadists’ attacks compelled French energy giant Total to suspend construction of a $20 billion liquified natural gas project, drawing international attention. Rwandan and other militaries that are part of the Southern Africa Development Community were deployed to bolster Mozambiquan troops.

Meanwhile, the insurgents are expanding their territory and drawing in militants from around the region.

When the insurgents first appeared, leaders referred to them as “bandits” and “evildoers,” wrote the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Now, however, they control swathes of Cabo Delgado and have demonstrated their ability to severely harm the country’s economy, while at the same time, appealing to residents by promoting business and scaling back their abuses.

The government, meanwhile, has been accused of stifling dissent, arresting journalists and members of civil society, and extrajudicial killings.

These days, Chapo is calling for more spending on security forces while he builds better relations with neighboring countries also eager to tamp down Islamic terror movements in their region.

Meanwhile, Ossufo Momade of the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) – a political organization that waged a civil war against Frelimo governments until peace accords were signed in 2019 – has vowed to crush the insurgency, reported the Club of Mozambique.

Independent candidate Venancio Mondlane has argued that curbing corruption would help take the wind out of the insurgents’ sails. Mozambique Democratic Movement candidate Lutero Simango has called for negotiations with the terrorists.

A “photo finish” between Chapo and Mondlane, a former Renamo party member, is highly likely, according to the Africa Report. Mondlane has drawn large crowds with pledges to renegotiate contracts with large foreign energy companies to benefit the country’s poor rather than its Frelimo-connected elites.

Still, the gas revenues will be easier to collect if the bullets stop flying, and that might happen if the next election brings better governance to Mozambique and make the insurgents less attractive to many residents in their territory, wrote the Soufan Center, a think-tank.

The analysis group notes that, even where the South African Development Community peacekeeping mission and Rwandan forces have succeeded in reclaiming territory in the county, “the Mozambican government failed to improve governance and provision of services to the population in these areas, providing ISIS-Mozambique an opportunity to resurge.”

With the elections, it added, there is a chance for that to change.

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