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Walking the Walk: The EU Is Losing Patience With Its Hungarian Problem Child
HUNGARY
In January, when Hungary’s six-month presidency of the Council of European Union ended, the European Union wasted no time in sanctioning the country: It immediately canceled $1 billion in aid because of rule-of-law violations, namely a failure to tackle corruption.
It was only the latest salvo against the country, which has been a thorn in the bloc’s side for years.
“Hungary’s status (in the EU) was downgraded overnight from rotating EU president to EU pariah,” wrote the European Consortium for Political Research. “The EU has investigated Hungary’s potential breach of European values since 2018… It has taken until now, however, for it to impose any costs.”
After the fall of communism in 1989, Hungary joined the EU in 2004 and was a liberal democracy until 2010, say analysts, when Viktor Orbán, who first served as prime minister from 1998 to 2002, returned to power with his conservative Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance party, when he and his party began transforming Hungary into an “illiberal” democracy: His administration has undermined judicial independence, upended civil liberties and press freedoms, cracked down on independent institutions and dissent, and hijacked all levers of power in the country, according to Freedom House.
As a result, the EU has repeatedly threatened fines, legal action and aid to the country. In 2022, it withheld almost $30 billion in aid before partially releasing it to gain Hungary’s agreement to abstain from a vote on support for Ukraine, a situation EU officials call “blackmail” and one that has become increasingly frequent: Hungary blocks more than half of the EU’s foreign policy decisions until it gets what it wants, observers say.
But now that the EU is gearing up to go it alone on Ukraine in the wake of the Trump administration’s lack of interest in defending Europe, it’s increasingly wondering what to do about the sole country that threatens its unified stance.
“The EU is simultaneously facing the biggest external threat to its security since its creation and division within its ranks by member states more committed to their narrow interests and relationship with Moscow than to their responsibilities as EU members,” wrote Carnegie Europe. “By leaving Hungary unpunished …Brussels is normalizing blackmail and asking for more of it.”
Now, the calls to punish – or even eject – Hungary are growing again.
Last week, the majority of EU countries said they want to crack down on Hungary over Orbán’s plan to ban upcoming Pride celebrations in Budapest, Politico reported. At the same time, diplomats told the news outlet they want to deploy the “nuclear option” against Hungary over its obstructionism on Ukraine, namely stripping Hungary of its voting rights on bloc matters.
Some say the bloc should go further.
“It’s high time for the European Union to deal with the one member-state that obviously doesn’t belong in the EU: Hungary,” wrote Alexander Motyl of Rutgers University in the Hill. “It has repeatedly made it clear that it prefers the company of dictators such as Russia’s illegitimately elected president, Vladimir Putin, to that of the ‘degenerate West.’”
There has long been discussion about expelling Hungary from the bloc, with some of it spilling into public view.
The problem, analysts say, is that there is no clear EU procedure to eject the country or any country, unless it wants to leave.
It doesn’t, say observers.
Orbán needs the EU because it allows Hungary to punch above its weight internationally, say analysts. Also, Hungary gets billions of euros each year from the EU that help keep its economy afloat.
“For Orbán, EU money is existential because it keeps him in power,” wrote the Journal of Democracy. “His ability to dole out EU funds through public contracts to loyal supporters solidifies his rule.”
Meanwhile, more than 70 percent of Hungarians support EU membership.
Short of expelling Hungary, EU officials have already found a way to sideline it on certain votes. Now it is seriously considering suspending Hungary’s voting rights, which it can do “if a country seriously and persistently breaches the principles on which the EU is founded,” noted George Kyris of the University of Birmingham in the Conversation.
It has been tried before against Hungary, unsuccessfully. However, there is new momentum to isolate Hungary now.
Still, Orbán says in doing so, the EU is just isolating itself.
“The European Union has isolated itself from the US, isolated itself from China because of the trade war, and isolated itself from Russia because of the sanction policy,” the Hungarian leader said recently. “So if someone is isolated here, it’s the European Union. Hungary has good relations to all three directions, so we are not isolated at all.”
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