Freedom Fighters, Beware

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The South West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO) led the fight against South Africa, then under Apartheid, for Namibia’s independence in 1990. It has led the country since.

Now, that might be changing.

As University of Pretoria political scientist Henning Melber argued recently in the Conversation, SWAPO presidential candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, known as NNN, is running after a series of elections in which Namibian voters have expressed their dissatisfaction with SWAPO’s unfulfilled promises for economic growth, its corruption scandals, and other issues.

NNN, who if elected would become the country’s first female president, wants to reduce Namibia’s dependence on diamonds. Namibia’s uranium mining industry, for example, could generate more revenues, the Diplomatic Courier wrote. SWAPO officials believe the country could double its economic growth to 8 percent annually through offshore oil and gas exploration, too, the Financial Times reported. Chevron, ExxonMobil, Galp, TotalEnergies, and Shell are operating in Namibia now.

But NNN has also pledged to protect those resources for future generations – reflecting how many Namibians might be skeptical of her claims. Her closeness with business leaders as SWAPO’s endorsed candidate might seem like cold comfort to many voters who have yet to see the reforms they want. Angola and Nigeria have oil riches but have still struggled to lift many of their citizens from poverty, too.

At the same time, Panduleni Itula, a former SWAPO official and the founder of a new opposition party, Independent Patriots for Change, appears to be giving NNN a run for her money. Itula has pledged to create jobs while investing in housing, sanitation, electricity, and water for the approximately one million Namibians who now lack those services, Channel Africa noted.

Itula and other opposition figures have also successfully sounded alarm bells about the unfair fundraising practices and connections that have helped SWAPO retain power over the past decades, added the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.

This efforts come as trust in SWAPO has fallen from 42 percent in 2014 to 17 percent in 2021. The coup de grȃce in this downward plunge was the so-called “fishrot scandal,” which involved SWAPO leaders diverting fishing quotas from local companies to foreign ones for millions in kickbacks.

SWAPO is facing a downward momentum that other liberationist political parties in Botswana, Zambia, Mauritius, South Africa, and elsewhere also are, mainly because they have failed to live up to their pledges for growth as governing political parties, noted Nyasha Mcbride Mpani of the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation based in Cape Town, South Africa, in the Mail & Guardian.

Namibia is on the brink of change, he added.

Namibians, having witnessed the possibility of ousting a liberation movement, now see this as their opportunity to push for change,” he wrote. “(SWAPO) must confront its vulnerabilities by addressing corruption, reconnecting with its grassroots base and offering tangible solutions to Namibia’s economic problems. Its liberation struggle credentials, while significant, may not be enough … The outcome will not only determine SWAPO’s future but also signal whether Namibia will follow the regional trend of rejecting liberation movements in favor of change.”