The Emperor’s New Clothes

French troops will soon complete their exit from Chad, their last foreign deployment in the Sahel region, ending what some interpreted as colonial meddling in the West African country, if not a tilt toward instability.

President Mahamat Déby has chosen to turn his attention diplomatically from the country’s former colonial master and instead foster closer relations with Russia, Turkey, and other countries, wrote Deutsche Welle. He is also taking a big risk saying goodbye to a rich and powerful, democratic partner in favor of countries that are facing significant problems in their own neighborhoods, however.

French fighter jets, for example, have frequently stopped rebels from reaching the capital of N’Djamena. “French policymakers have long viewed their presence in Chad as a fundamentally stabilizing element in a broadly unstable region,” wrote World Politics Review. “Explicitly or not, this view has been shared by successive Chadian regimes.”

The move was arguably one of the most significant since Déby took office three years ago after the death of his father, Idriss Déby, who served as Chad’s president from 1996 to 2021, when rebels killed him in northern Chad. The military installed the younger Déby in office, then organized an election in May that aimed to legitimize his rule but came under criticism for election irregularities, Agence France-Presse reported.

Legislative elections in late December, meanwhile, cemented Déby’s hold on power. Opposition figures boycotted the vote, saying they did not offer people a real choice. Some political dissidents called for voters to remain home in order to avoid potential violence that many feared might flare up, Voice of America added.

But some Chadians casting ballots were hopeful Déby and his allies were at least holding a vote and giving people the chance to make their voice heard. “This is the first time that I am voting for three candidates at the same time – for the legislative, provincial, and municipal elections,” Moussa Ali Hissein, 27, told Reuters. “I hope that these candidates will keep their promises to young people. I especially need a job.”

Almost 45 percent of Chad’s people are impoverished, according to the World Bank.

Before he can improve the economy significantly, though, Déby will need to fix the instability in the country, especially outside the capital. Rebel group Boko Haram, an affiliate of the militant terrorist group Islamic State, is active in the Lake Chad region, noted Al Jazeera. Rebel groups seeking the downfall of Déby are also still active.

The leader also faces a French judicial probe into clothing he purchased in Paris for Eur 900,000 ($1 million) that French prosecutors say was paid for with embezzlement public funds and other “ill-gotten gains.”

According to Le Monde, Déby is furious over the probe.

Meanwhile, as the French troops departed, Chadian officials are looking toward Russia, China the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey to help. That might be in vain, wrote the Associated Press.

“(Déby) would not have made this decision if he did not have security guarantees from another actor,” Will Brown, a senior policy fellow at the European Center for Foreign Relations, told the AP. “We know he’s received serious support from the United Arab Emirates, who are very interested in what’s going on in neighboring Sudan and Darfur. We know that Turkey also made some outreach.”

Still, the newswire added, kicking out French troops and replacing them with Russian mercenaries paid with local funds hasn’t worked out so well for Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso – they saw an uptick in violence over the past two years.