Going South

On Jan. 14, two police officers were driving on a rural road in southern Thailand when a homemade bomb detonated under their truck and killed them both, the Bangkok Post wrote.

That bombing in Narathiwat province came a day after another detonated outside of a police station in Pattani province and injured nine Thai security officials.

The two bombings were just the latest flare-up of violence by Malay separatists in those southern provinces as well as Yala and Songkhla near the border with Malaysia. Here, Malay rebels have fought the Thai state for decades to win autonomy.

But this time, the bombings came just ahead of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s visit to the region.

“These incidents show that the government must urgently address this issue and prioritize returning peace to the people in the area,” she said on X.

But analysts say the main obstacle to peace is the government itself.

This region of southern Thailand became part of the Kingdom of Siam in the late 1700s before being incorporated into a Malay sultanate named Patani. In the early 20th century, the region became part of the Thai state after a treaty with the United Kingdom. Since then, the region’s Muslim-majority Malay residents have remained marginalized in Thailand’s largely Buddhist society, living in a poor, underdeveloped region of the country.

For the past few decades, rebel groups, mainly the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), but also some smaller groups have been fighting for independence. The insurgency has killed more than 7,000 people and injured almost 14,000 over the past 20 years, according to Deep South Watch.

About five years ago, the Thai government and the BRN began new peace talks, but progress has been slow despite a roadmap to peace agreed to by both sides in 2023.

Part of the problem is that the Thai government is hindered in making any real concessions regarding autonomy to the south by the military, which could – and has – toppled Thai governments and taken over the country when it is displeased with its agenda.

As peace talks continue to falter under the Pheu Thai government, rebels in southern Thailand appear to have grown increasingly frustrated: Violence has risen since early last year with more than a dozen attacks in the region in that period, wrote World Politics Review.

The prime minister during her visit toured infrastructure projects intended to develop the region, particularly boosting trade and tourism.

However, looking to the future doesn’t solve the grievances over the past, say analysts.

One main issue is the 2004 Tak Bai massacre. On Oct. 25, 2004, security personnel from the Thai army and police units moved to disperse Malay-Muslim protesters in front of a police station in Tak Bai district in Narathiwat province. Seven protesters were shot dead, while 78 others were crushed to death as they were being transported to an army detention facility. About 1,200 people were held in army custody for several days without appropriate medical attention. As a result, many protesters suffered severe injuries that required the amputation of their limbs.

In December 2004, the fact-finding committee appointed by the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the father of the current prime minister, concluded that the methods used to disperse the protesters were inappropriate, wrote Human Rights Watch.

No one has been held responsible for the deaths and injuries. As a result, victims’ families have tried to get justice through the courts. In the most recent attempt last year, the defendants didn’t show up and faced no repercussions for doing so. The statute of limitations ran out in October.

The lack of justice, meanwhile, attracts new recruits to the separatist groups. “When they use the Tak Bai incident, this is something that they don’t really have to tell people so much (about) because it’s still vivid in their memory, so it’s easy … to encourage people to join the movement,” Rungrawee Chalermsripinyorat of Prince of Songkla University in southern Thailand told Voice of America.

Analysts say the lingering grievances, along with the securitization of the region could hinder development plans for the region and peace negotiations.

“Moving the Deep South forward also means addressing the wrongs of the past, something that previous governments have been reluctant to do,” wrote Mark Cogan of Kansai Gaidai University in Osaka, Japan, in the Diplomat. “Her own apology for Tak Bai was too little, too late.”