The Judicial Wall

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The ruling party in Thailand’s parliament, Pheu Thai, recently nominated Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 37-year-old daughter of billionaire former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, as the Southeast Asian country’s next prime minister.

Usually, such an announcement would signal a resolution to political instability and the start of a new government. But Paetongtarn is taking over after Thailand’s Constitutional Court removed former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from office for appointing a cabinet minister who was a convicted criminal, contravening Thai law, reported Agence France-Presse.

Srettha’s removal also occurred a week after the Constitutional Court disbanded Thailand’s progressive opposition Move Forward Party, wrote World Politics Review. The party, which won the largest share of seats in parliament last year, saw its leaders barred from standing for office for 10 years, CNN noted.

The court disbanded Move Forward because its leaders have proposed amending the so-called “lèse-majesté” laws that outlaw criticism of King Maha Vajiralongkorn or proposing policies that might undermine the king’s authority as the country’s head of state, the East Asia Forum explained.

These moves are unpopular because many Thais feel the court is tipping the scales against Thai voters who want political and economic reforms, while defending military and business elites and the allies of King Vajiralongkorn.

Human rights activists say the court rulings are part of a pattern of unelected officials exercising too much power over elected leaders, the Associated Press reported. Since 2005, military coups, court rulings, or other maneuvers have prevented winning political parties from forming governments. Thavisin was closely affiliated with Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup, for example, wrote Time magazine.

“Elections are held in which voters voice increasingly clear demands for change, only for those to be denied by the royalist old guard that has dominated my country for generations,” argued Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a professor of Thai politics at Kyoto University, in a New York Times op-ed.

That old guard is represented by the court, wrote the BBC. “Thailand’s Constitutional court, which has dissolved 34 parties since 2006, has long been the principal guardian of the conservative status quo – at its heart is the monarchy, protected by a politically assertive military,” the broadcaster said. “Beyond that, unaccountable power is wielded by palace officials, senior judges, business tycoons, and military and police officers.”

Still, Move Forward, a party reborn from its previous incarnation previously Future Forward which was dissolved in 2020, has already become a new party, the People’s Party, the Associated Press reported.

But it faces new headwinds, again: The leaders of Thailand’s newest pro-democracy party are now being threatened by a new probe, one by the National Anti-Corruption Commission, which began an ethics investigation into 39 of its lawmakers that could see them cast out of the National Assembly over similar allegations that saw Move Forward dissolved, VOA reported.

Meanwhile, analysts at the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, were skeptical that Paetongtarn would be able to assert herself or disrupt these trends. They predicted instability, conservative forces retaining inordinate power behind the scenes of electoral politics, and few if any economic or political reforms.

Governance is suffering as a result. Srettha’s government, for instance, failed to enact meaningful legislation to improve the country’s economy by attracting foreign investment, while feuding with the Bank of Thailand over interest rates.

The royalists might want a weak prime minister. But years of repression often lead to trouble boiling over sooner or later, as it has in the past. Meanwhile, the use of the court for political ends won’t end anytime soon, analysts say.

“The issue of the monarchy has been used by those politicians who would like to ensure that they remain in power,” said Verapat Pariyawong, who teaches Thai law and politics at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies. “It’s those people who rely on issues of lèse-majesté to attack parties like MFP or People’s (Party), so that dynamic will continue as long as … the Constitutional Court can rely on lèse-majesté to disband political parties.”