Mix and Match
Listen to Today's Edition:
Turkey has always straddled Europe and Asia. Reflecting that geopolitical reality, the country is now moving to mix its allegiances and capabilities as it pursues its new strategy of so-called strategic autonomy.
“In a period when our region is constantly on edge, establishing new equations in foreign policy is not just a choice but a necessity for Turkey,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently in a speech, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Erdoğan’s next moves don’t necessarily need to be peaceful or stabilizing, however, at least from a Western point of view. Erdoğan and his conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) have dominated Turkish politics for more than 20 years. Still, elections earlier this year were a shock: The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), surpassed Erdoğan’s AKP on a national scale, capturing 38 percent of the vote and shifting local power dynamics – also outside of urban areas that made up the opposition’s traditional base, the Conversation wrote.
Now, as Turkish politicians prepare for the end of Erdoğan’s tenure in 2028 when new presidential elections are held, the party is likely to consolidate power further while pursuing more aggressive policies abroad, argued World Politics Review.
Such foreign commitments – like Turkish involvement in the Syrian Civil War – serve to empower the government, render the elimination of dissidents easier, declare emergency powers, and otherwise eat away at democratic institutions and the rule of law, argued War on the Rocks.
Turkey, for example, recently asked to join the genocide case against Israel being considered by the International Court of Justice in the Hague, Netherlands, the Associated Press reported. “Emboldened by the impunity for its crimes, Israel is killing more and more innocent Palestinians every day,” posted the Turkish foreign minister on X.
The move was an indicator of Turkey’s interest in joining the so-called BRIC nations, added Bloomberg. The BRICs – named after its founding nations Brazil, Russia, India, and China but now including many other countries – represent a non-Western bloc, a counterweight to American, European, and other Western forces in a new multi-polar world order, explained Deutsche Welle.
Turkey is still a member of NATO, though, putting it in the Western camp allied against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. Ultimately, wrote Foreign Policy magazine, Turkey is attempting to maintain a balancing act between good relations with the West and forging new alliances and opportunities with new coalitions like BRICs – for example, Erdoğan recently attended the BRICS summit.
Erdoğan is happy to mix and match his allegiances on different levels of the game of chess he is playing. Turkey and Russia have expanded tourism and commerce along their Black Sea coasts since Russia invaded Ukraine more than two years ago, for instance, reported Reuters. At the same time, Turkey officially opposes the invasion and has provided Ukraine with attack drones.
Meanwhile, even as Erdoğan has exerted influence or deployed forces in northern Syria, Libya and elsewhere, he has moved to mend fences with Egypt, too, Voice of America wrote.
The Turkish leader has reached new diplomatic and commercial deals with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, too, wrote World Politics Review. Currently, Turkey and the Gulf Cooperation Council are working on a free-trade agreement, which, if finalized, would create one of the world’s largest free-trade areas, measured in market value, at $2.4 trillion.
This push to mend fences, create alliances, and, critically, generate trade and investment, is not coming quickly enough for Turkey’s economy, which has been “on the brink” for the past year, with high-double-digit inflation and low growth, the Financial Times wrote. As a result, the business community is “running out of patience.”
For example, this summer, restaurants at usually bustling tourist hotspots in Turkey were half-empty after inflation reached 91 percent, noted Fortune. “(This sent) tourists and locals flocking to neighboring Greece.”
Subscribe today and GlobalPost will be in your inbox the next weekday morning
Join us today and pay only $32.95 for an annual subscription, or less than $3 a month for our unique insights into crucial developments on the world stage. It’s by far the best investment you can make to expand your knowledge of the world.