A Tale of Two Countries
NEED TO KNOW
A Tale of Two Countries
LIBYA
Anyone interested in learning about how failed states survive might consider the story of Sadiq al-Kabir, the former governor of the Central Bank of Libya.
Libya can pump more than 1.2 million barrels of oil per day, generating significant revenues deposited in the Central Bank. From the bank’s red-and-white striped building topped with two turquoise cupolas in the western capital of Tripoli, al-Kabir controlled around $80 billion worth of foreign reserves from oil sales.
Appointed after the late dictator Muammar Qaddafi was ousted in 2011, al-Kabir survived two civil wars and six prime ministers, using the oil revenues to finance Libya’s two governments – the internationally-recognized Government of National Accord based in Tripoli, and the other one based in the eastern city of Tobruk run by the House of Representatives, wrote the Economist.
Al-Kabir funded warlords throughout the North African country, sometimes paying people to attack cities that he was also paying people to defend. He also ran complicated oil deals that lined the warlords’ pockets – while reducing his influence over them as they grew richer.
In August, al-Kabir blocked payments to the Tripoli government under Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who then seized control of the Central Bank. Al-Kabir fled to Turkey, the Guardian wrote.
The incident worried Gen. Khalifa Haftar, who runs the Libyan National Army, a fighting force that is essential to the survival of the Tobruk government. He ordered key oil fields in eastern Libya shuttered to end the flow of black gold and the 95 percent of the country’s revenues they represented for everyone involved in Libya’s fragmented state.
That in turn caused the production of oil to fall by 60 percent.
Banks around the world began to refuse transactions with the Central Bank. That led to banks in Libya closing, the Libyan dinar’s value falling and inflation spiking. Civil servants and militias worried about being paid. Others worried about Libya’s ability to pay for imports, such as food.
Analysts worried about Libya plummeting “into economic collapse, resulting in severe food shortages and possibly popular protest and an outbreak of militia violence,” wrote the Crisis Group.
As the threat of violence grew with competing militias clashing in Tripoli, the Libyan National Army began a westward advance, spiking fears of a new civil war breaking out. The United Nations stepped in and struck a deal to calm the situation.
Meanwhile, as the old divided order resumes in Libya, foreign influence is confusing things as alliances begin to shift.
The Americans have long supported the Tripoli government. However, recently, US Africa Command General Michael Langley met with Haftar at an undisclosed location in Libya, for example, in the search for allies, concerned about growing Russian influence, the Middle East Monitor reported. Russia is vying for favor with Haftar, with Russian mercenaries in Libya making inroads, according to the Atlantic Council, with an eye toward receiving a naval port on the Mediterranean.
Turkey attempted to provide significant support to the government in Tripoli, but failed to make much lasting impact or gain diplomatically from its investment, Carnegie Europe concluded. Egypt, on the other hand, is an ally of the Tobruk government and previously supported Haftar during the civil war, which ended in 2020. Europe’s interests, meanwhile, mean greater demand for energy from Libya, especially since Germany and other nations are seeking to dramatically reduce their consumption of Russian oil, reported TRT World, a Turkish government broadcaster.
Still, good news recently emerged from this chaos. The Central Bank has a new leader and a new board of directors following the successful negotiation of a deal between the two governments by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya, the Libyan Express reported. Also, Libya’s National Oil Corporation – another public entity that operates relatively autonomously of the two governments but is also in their service – will begin pumping oil again at full tilt, reported Africa News.
That means everyone will get paid again. The status quo, which the UN calls “unsustainable” is back. Until the next crisis.
“For now, Libya may have avoided a turn for the worst,” wrote World Politics Review. “(Now), unified international efforts will be essential to support (UN) initiatives and pressure Libya’s elites across both rival governments and all major state institutions to engage in a stabilization process.” Otherwise, wrote WPR, “Libya will likely find itself trapped in a cycle of political and economic uncertainty.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Sending a Message
ISRAEL/ IRAN
Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Iran over the weekend, marking its first openly acknowledged strike on Iranian soil, with targets including missile production facilities and air defense systems in a move aimed at crippling Tehran’s missile program but reducing the risk of a region-wide war, the Washington Post reported.
The strikes, carried out over approximately four hours, destroyed about 20 strategic targets, including 12 “planetary mixers” essential to Iran’s ballistic missile production, as well as four S-300 air defense batteries protecting key areas in Tehran and surrounding sites.
Israeli officials said the operation was intended to weaken Iran’s military infrastructure and limit its ability to replenish missile stockpiles for both itself and its regional allies, notably Lebanon-based Hezbollah.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) framed the strike as a response to Iran’s missile barrage on Israel earlier this month, part of the ongoing, shadow conflict between the two nations, Axios added.
The Biden administration – briefed prior to the strikes – urged Israel to restrict its target scope to avoid nuclear and oil facilities and reduce the risk of civilian casualties.
Following the Israeli operation, the reaction in Iran was subdued, according to NBC News.
State media reported limited damage and four military fatalities, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps downplayed the attack’s impact on military operations, stating that most affected sites were already under repair.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei suggested that the strikes should neither be exaggerated nor minimized, while Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the strikes as a violation of its sovereignty and reiterated Iran’s right to self-defense under international law.
Meanwhile, Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia condemned the strikes as a destabilizing move, while urging restraint among all parties.
Analysts said the strikes could have major regional implications, as Israel’s targeted destruction of missile production equipment impedes Iran’s ability to restock its ballistic missile arsenal and affect its capacity to supply proxies, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.
Others also noted that the limited scope of attack could also serve as an end to the direct conflict between the two rivals.
Michael Milshtein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at Tel Aviv University’s Dayan Center, told NBC News that Iran may now feel “less reason” to escalate.
Yossi Mekelberg of analyst group Chatham House added that downplaying the damage will allow Tehran to symbolically “settle scores.” He added that this shift could open paths from military confrontation to diplomacy, though he cautioned that whether both nations pursue this remains uncertain.
A Dream, Dashed
GEORGIA
The ruling Georgian Dream party won parliamentary elections over the weekend, a victory that dashed hopes for a closer relationship with Europe and one that opposition parties swiftly disputed, citing irregularities at the polls, Reuters reported.
With nearly all precincts counted, the Central Election Commission said Sunday that Georgian Dream had secured more than 54 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, the main opposition parties, the Coalition for Change and the United National Movement (UNM), won 10.8 percent and 10.1 percent of the vote, respectively, according to CNN.
Georgian Dream founder and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili celebrated the results as an “exceptional success” and claimed they reflect the people’s choice for peace and stability.
However, opposition parties disputed the outcome, alleging that the ruling party stole the vote and describing the results as “a constitutional coup.” Competing exit polls showed opposition groups with a majority, fueling claims that Georgian Dream had manipulated results.
Reports of election violations also stoked tensions: International monitors, including the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), documented instances of voter intimidation, ballot-stuffing and incidents of violence at polling stations, the BBC noted.
The opposition has threatened to hold mass protests, with analysts noting that the results will have critical implications for Georgia’s future.
The former Soviet Republic aspires to join the European Union, with polls showing that more than 80 percent of Georgians support joining the bloc.
In 2023, Georgia received candidate-accession status, but the EU froze Tbilisi’s bid to join the bloc earlier this year citing Georgian Dream’s increasingly authoritarian policies.
While the governing party – in power since 2012 – remains officially committed to EU membership, it has pushed the country closer to Russia in recent years: Recently, the Georgian Dream-controlled parliament passed a “foreign agents” law targeting organizations that receive Western funding – legislation that critics said resembles Russian laws passed in 2022.
Georgia Dream has also campaigned to keep Georgia out of the Ukraine war and has accused the opposition of being part of a “global war party.”
Meanwhile, voting was also marred by concerns of Russian interference after a Georgian monitoring group warned of a Moscow-backed campaign aimed at influencing the election.
The Kremlin denied the allegations, countering that Western governments are trying to incite unrest.
A Death in Lisbon
PORTUGAL
Thousands of demonstrators marched in Lisbon over the weekend to protest police violence and demand justice following the fatal shooting of a man of Cape Verdean origins by police, after spiking tensions and several nights of unrest in immigrant neighborhoods last week, Euronews reported.
Protesters marched in central Lisbon, waving Cape Verdean flags and chanting slogans, such as “No peace without justice” and “Police violence, colonial heritage.”
Cape Verde, an island nation off the west coast of Africa, is a former colony of Portugal.
Saturday’s demonstration came a week after the fatal shooting of 43-year-old Odair Moniz in the early hours of Monday morning in Lisbon’s Cova da Moura neighborhood.
Police said Moniz was shot by an officer after allegedly attempting to flee and attacking officers with a knife. The officer has since been charged with manslaughter, but the official account is being disputed by residents who question the circumstances of the shooting, Agence France-Presse noted.
Many of Saturday’s demonstrators linked Moniz’s death to broader issues of racial violence and discrimination in the country.
Days after the shooting, Portuguese authorities recorded over 100 incidents of public disturbances in Lisbon, leading to more than 20 arrests and several injuries.
Lisbon rarely experiences such levels of unrest, said observers, adding that the riots underscore the deep frustrations in immigrant-heavy areas with police.
Meanwhile, the far-right Chega party held a counter-protest of about 200 people in support of the police. Chega leader André Ventura defended the officer’s actions, stating that the officer “should be decorated, not indicted.”
DISCOVERIES
Being Water
Cats are often agile and elusive, with the ability to squeeze into impossibly small spaces and slip under doors like a liquid.
Now, a new study led by biologist Péter Pongrácz has found that the animals may indeed behave more like liquids than solids – and that the determining factor is body awareness.
To test the cats’ body size awareness, Pongrácz visited the homes of 29 cat owners in Budapest, Hungary.
He explained to Science Magazine that cats are notorious for avoiding labs, so he set up a “portable lab” in the homes by fitting doorframes with cardboard panels featuring cutouts of varying widths and heights.
The experiment presented cats with two types of challenges: One with decreasing hole widths and another with decreasing heights.
In a previous experiment with dogs, he noticed that canines hesitate to go through openings too small for their bodies. But the cats were different, he said.
He found that when the hole’s height became low, 22 out of 30 participating felines hesitated before passing through, indicating they might be calculating their body size to avoid getting stuck.
However, when faced with narrower openings – even those barely half their width – only eight cats paused before attempting to pass through.
“They don’t use body awareness in this case – they’re basically like liquids,” said Pongrácz. “(And) unlike dogs, cats never stop trying.”
Ivan Khvatov, a psychologist at the Moscow Institute of Psychoanalysis in Russia who was not involved in the research, noted that body flexibility could explain this behavior.
“Dogs have a less flexible body,” he pointed out, meaning they’re likely more aware of their own dimensions in tight spaces.
While the question as to whether cats are aware of their body size is still unclear, the study also hints at feline survival instincts, according to Science News.
Pongrácz suggested that the animals hesitate with low openings as a “self-preservation strategy” in nature, where they might be vulnerable to threats if they can’t see what’s on the other side.