Chainsaw Politics
NEED TO KNOW
Chainsaw Politics
ARGENTINA
Students, workers from all sectors, LGBTQ folks, pensioners and women have all marched in the streets of the Argentine capital Buenos Aires this year to protest President Javier Milei’s conservative policies, including cuts to universities, suppression of wages and pension hikes, and the abolition of ministries that focused on women and discrimination, xenophobia, and racism, as World Politics Review wrote.
In late October, for example, Argentina’s largest public-sector union held a 36-hour strike, protesting in Buenos Aires to demand better wages, wrote the Spanish newswire, EFE.
The protests are the new norm in Argentina since Milei won office in November 2023 and inherited an economic disaster. A populist and anarcho-capitalist who vowed to take a chainsaw to the country’s socialistic government bureaucracy, which he says has long hampered the South American country’s economy and geopolitical power, he is making good on his promises.
Railing against career politicians, labor activists, journalists, celebrities, academics, corporate leaders and banks as “miserable rats,” “dirty asses,” “degenerate prosecutors,” and “filthy leftists,” he has cut the country’s deficit by a whopping 30 percent in that year since he won office, El País explained.
He has also reduced inflation, where inflation in the triple digits has been the norm, and made other welcome market-friendly economic changes, added the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.
But as the annual inflation rate dropped from the forecasted 300 percent in April to 123 percent by the end of the year, the poverty rate rose from 42 percent to almost 60 percent, the highest rate since 2023, when the country was reeling from a catastrophic foreign debt default and currency devaluation, the Associated Press wrote.
As a result, this has caused desperation, with many ordinary Argentinians struggling to eat: “We are feeling it in the fridge, empty and unplugged,” María Claudia Albornoz, a community worker in the country, told the Guardian. “Money is really worth absolutely nothing. We have three jobs and it is not enough.”
Meanwhile, his political shifts have been noteworthy, too. Contrary to many leftist South American leaders who portray American influence in the region as negative, Milei recently sacked his foreign affairs minister, for example, for voting in favor of lifting the US embargo of Cuba in a United Nations General Assembly vote.
“The country is going through a period of profound changes and this new stage requires that our diplomatic corps reflect in each decision the values of freedom, sovereignty and individual rights that characterize Western democracies,” said Milei.
The new foreign minister, Geraldo Werthein, is a Jewish businessman and former ambassador to the US who notably swore his oath with one hand on the Torah, reported the Jewish News Agency. Importantly, only Israel joined the US in voting to reaffirm the Cuban embargo.
As the strikes and protests suggest, Milei has alienated many of his constituents. Whether he can continue to make reforms might depend on how he deals with other challenges on the horizon.
American and European investors, for example, have been battling Argentina to pay them for years. As the Financial Times wrote, court decisions in these cases are coming due. If Milei is ordered to pay billions, as many expect, he might need to hit pause on his plans until he can pay the country’s bills.
It’s a race to see whether the outsider can win – for better or for worse, say analysts.
While reforms are on track, and Argentina achieved its first budget surplus in two decades, the forecast is for the country to go into recession – one Milei hopes is short-lived – but which economists believe won’t be, pushing even more people into poverty and desperation – and possibly energizing the center-left to block Milei’s programs.
Right now, Argentina is currently “teetering on the edge of a cliff,” Benjamin Gedan, the director of the Latin America Program at the Wilson Center, told Foreign Policy.
“Most people agree that … everything is either going to collapse or, somehow, (Milei is) going to survive politically long enough to show the benefits of his policies,” Gedan said. “But just sputtering along on the verge of a crisis doesn’t seem to be possible anymore.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
The Peacemaker Quits
ISRAEL/ WEST BANK & GAZA
Qatar officially withdrew from its role as mediator between Israel and Hamas, citing frustration with both parties’ refusal to negotiate in good faith, even as Israelis including the families of hostages protested over the weekend in Tel Aviv to mark 400 days since their loved ones were taken hostage, NPR reported.
On Saturday, Qatar’s foreign ministry said it had informed both Israel and Hamas of its intention to withdraw from the mediation efforts unless an agreement was reached.
Officials added that Doha would resume negotiations only when both sides demonstrate “seriousness” to end the “brutal war” and alleviate humanitarian suffering in the Gaza Strip.
Israel and Hamas have been locked in a conflict since last year that has expanded across the region to include Iran and Lebanon. The war began shortly after Hamas and its allies launched an attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 others hostage.
Qatar and Egypt have been engaged in mediation efforts aimed at reaching a ceasefire and securing the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas. But negotiations have repeatedly stalled amid mutual distrust and uncompromising positions from Israel and Hamas.
The Gulf nation played a critical role in November 2023, when it helped broker a temporary ceasefire that secured the release of more than 100 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian detainees in Israel.
A US official noted that Qatar’s mediation had been invaluable for securing past deals.
However, the Biden administration has recently communicated to Doha that Hamas’ presence in Qatar was “no longer viable or acceptable” after the group’s repeated refusals to negotiate seriously on hostage releases, the Financial Times added.
Qatar’s exit comes as pressure continues to build on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to secure a hostage exchange.
On Saturday, hundreds gathered outside the Israel Defense Forces’ Tel Aviv headquarters, demanding that the government prioritize a deal to return the hostages still in Gaza.
Protesters, including prominent actors, rabbis, and families of the hostages, voiced mounting anger at Netanyahu’s perceived lack of action, with some accusing his administration of deliberately prolonging the war.
Of the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas, around 97 are believed to remain in Gaza, according to the Times of Israel.
Foxes and Henhouses
AZERBAIJAN
A senior official at the upcoming United Nations climate summit sparked controversy this week after a secret recording showed that he offered to discuss fossil fuel investment opportunities while planning the global climate event, the Guardian reported.
The scandal broke just ahead of the 29th annual Conference of Parties (COP29) summit, which opens in Baku, Azerbaijan Monday. The conference brings together global leaders and experts to discuss strategies for limiting and preparing for climate change, with a focus on reducing fossil fuel dependency.
Secret recordings obtained by the human rights group Global Witness showed Elnur Soltanov, Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister and chief executive of the COP29 team, discussing potential deals with a person posing as an investor.
Soltanov – who also sits on the board of Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company Socar – spoke about “investment opportunities” in the country’s oil and gas sector, saying he could connect the investor with Socar executives.
In the recording, the official described natural gas as a “transitional fuel” and suggested Azerbaijan would continue producing oil and gas “perhaps forever.”
Despite COP29’s focus on reducing fossil fuels, Soltanov’s comments appeared to contradict the summit’s standards of impartiality and commitment to fight climate change, sparking calls for greater oversight of officials.
A similar incident took place at last year’s COP28 summit, where officials from the United Arab Emirates reportedly promoted oil and gas deals despite the conference’s climate goals, the BBC noted.
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which oversees COP events, reiterated the “rigorous standards” required of all host countries but did not comment on Azerbaijan’s specific case.
Global Witness and other climate advocates are now urging the UN to ban fossil fuel industry sponsorships and lobbyists from COP events, cautioning that conflicts of interest undermine the integrity of the climate talks.
Three Strikes
BOLIVIA
Bolivia’s constitutional court barred former President Evo Morales from running again for office, a move that could intensify the ongoing political crisis between the leftist leader and his former ally, President Luis Arce, Al Jazeera reported.
The verdict – made public over the weekend – reaffirmed another court’s verdict in 2023 which ruled that presidents were limited to serving only two terms, irrespective of whether the terms were consecutive.
Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous leader, led the South American country between 2006 and 2019 for three terms. After serving two terms, a court ruling allowed him to run for a third time because his first term preceded a constitutional revision limiting terms, according to Reuters.
He attempted to run for a fourth term in the 2019 elections, but later fled the country after mass protests erupted over allegations of electoral fraud.
Morales returned to Bolivia after Arce won the presidency in 2020. But the two leaders have been butting heads since Morales’ return over control of the governing Movement Toward Socialism party (MAS).
Both have been vying to be the MAS candidate as the country prepares for elections next year.
Morales’ lawyer called the decision politically motivated, adding that they would take up the matter with the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights.
The ruling comes amid weeks of political tensions and mass protests by Morales’ supporters, who have blocked roads, taken soldiers hostage and called for Arce to resign. The demonstrations began after Bolivian prosecutors filed statutory rape charges against the former leftist president over his alleged relationship with a 15-year-old girl while in office.
Morales has denied the allegations and has recently accused the government of attempting to assassinate him in late November.
Officials responded by accusing Morales of staging an attack on himself, claiming that shots were fired at his car only after he allegedly tried to evade a police checkpoint.
DISCOVERIES
A Monkey’s Shakespeare
The Infinite Monkey Theorem posits that a monkey pressing keys on a typewriter for an infinite amount of time would eventually write all of William Shakespeare’s works – which are more than 880,000 words.
The theory is used to illustrate the concept of random chance and infinite possibilities and has been referenced in popular culture, such as in the TV series, the Simpsons.
But in practice, it is impossible, according to mathematicians Stephen Woodcock and Jay Falletta from the University of Technology Sydney in Australia.
“The Infinite Monkey Theorem only considers the infinite limit, with either an infinite number of monkeys or an infinite time period of monkey labor,” Woodcock explained in a statement.
In their paper, the researchers sought to re-examine the theory under the constraints of our finite universe.
They estimated the probability of a single monkey or even the entire global population of chimpanzees reproducing the English writer’s works within the estimated lifespan of the universe.
The study used the “heat death” theory for the end of the universe, which theorizes that our universe will end in a googol of years – that’s 10 to the power of 100, or one with 100 zeroes behind it.
The findings showed that even in this universe’s lifetime, it would be impossible for the primates to produce Shakespeare’s poems and plays. It also remains unlikely even in favorable assumptions, such as a typing speed of one key per second and a reduced 30-character keyboard with letters and basic punctuation.
What appeared possible was a five percent chance that a chimp could type the word “bananas” in its own lifetime.
Woodcock and Falletta acknowledged that the Infinite Monkey Theorem is theoretically true, but view the study as a reminder of the disconnect between infinite theoretical scenarios and the practical limits of the real world.
Other mathematicians not involved in the study agreed with the results – although they questioned the need to test the theory.
“It certainly didn’t need debunking. It’s something everyone has known forever,” Martin Hairer, professor of mathematics at Imperial College London, told NBC News. “The universe could die and be reborn millions and millions of times and it still wouldn’t happen.”