Hail Mary
NEED TO KNOW
Hail Mary
FRANCE
For French President Emmanuel Macron, the past few weeks have been the best of times – and the worst of times.
Over the weekend, Macron attended the glorious reopening of Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris, which was severely damaged by fire in 2019. Now, there is a more luminous atmosphere in the cleaned and polished interior of the medieval cathedral, which had been darkened by centuries of grime. And the delicate spire that was lost to the flames, rises to the heavens again.
The president, meanwhile, could boast that the massive, impossibly complicated project was completed on time, wrote the Economist. It was a triumph for France, following another in the form of the ambitiously lavish spectacle of the Summer Olympic Games, praised by viewers from around the world.
But while the City of Light could celebrate the medieval landmark’s phoenix-like rising from the ashes, the government was in a state of crisis that observers at the British magazine Prospect feared might end the fifth republic.
For the first time since 1962, a French government collapsed when on Dec. 5 an overwhelming majority of lawmakers approved a no-confidence measure ending Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s tenure, the BBC reported.
Macron appointed Barnier only three months ago after a snap early election that had resulted in Macron’s centrist allies losing seats to left-wing and far-right parties. No party secured a majority at the polls, however, leading Macron to appoint Barnier, a conservative, explained Politico.
The big takeaway though was that Macron’s gambit blew up in his face, CNN wrote, wondering what the president was thinking for having called early elections in the first place.
Despite their differences, however, the left and far-right agreed to oust Barnier, the European Union’s former lead Brexit negotiator, when he used special powers to adopt a budget without the usual vote in the French parliament. This proposed budget, importantly, contained more than $60 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts to decrease France’s deficit, noted Bloomberg. That budget is now defunct.
As president, Macron now faces the task of finding a new prime minister who will oversee a “minority government in a parliament where no party holds a majority,” the Associated Press wrote. Creating the next government will be as tough as “finding a five-legged sheep,” political scientist Benjamin Morel of the University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas told Le Monde.
The political disruption could send ripples throughout France – which is grappling with precarious political and fiscal situations – as well as the region and the world. In Europe, argued a Reuters op-ed, France is a major energy supplier that has supplied its neighbors with cheap electricity at a time when energy costs have been high. The government is central to the industry. But the government must invest heavily, especially in its nuclear power plants, to keep the power flowing.
Also, France’s posture towards Russia today is vital, according to World Politics Review. Macron is scrambling domestically while he is also aiming to lead Europe in a united front against Russian aggression in Ukraine, as Foreign Affairs described. The dissolution of the French government is also coming as its neighbor and lead partner in Europe, Germany, is in a similar situation: Its government collapsed a month ago.
Meanwhile, Chad this month ended its military agreements with France, too, Al Jazeera reported. On Friday, protests broke out in the capital against France in scenes reminiscent of those in Mali and elsewhere in Francophone Africa. The French exit from Chad was the latest in a series of forced pullouts from former colonies in the region that include Mali and Niger.
Writing in the Washington Post, Paris-based columnist Lee Hockstader noted the stark relief of the “miracle” of the resurrection of Notre-Dame de Paris and France’s colossal government “meltdown,” calling the contrast, “A pas de deux for the ages.”
“The rebuilt cathedral … is testament in stained glass, sculpture and masonry to a can-do France,” he wrote, continuing that it “stands in magnificent, maddening counterpoint to a can’t-do France – a succession of floundering, failed and loathed governments in this century that have embittered millions of voters.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
The Thaw
SYRIA
Syrian President Bashar Assad was forced to flee Damascus early Sunday as rebel forces seized the capital, ending more than 50 years of rule by the Assad family in a swift and shocking offensive that toppled one of the Middle East’s most brutal dictatorships, and instantly ended a frozen 13-year civil war, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Assad fled to Russia where he was given asylum, the Russian state news agency Tass wrote.
The fall of Assad marks a dramatic turning point after years of conflict that has killed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions, and drawn in regional and global powers.
It comes more than a week after a Turkish-backed rebel offensive, led by the Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), overran key cities including Aleppo, Homs, and Hama in a matter of days. Over the weekend, the fighters entered Damascus and found little resistance.
The group has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations due to its historical ties with al Qaeda and other terror groups.
However, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has claimed to have severed ties with al Qaeda.
The rapid collapse of Assad’s forces comes amid dwindling support from key allies Iran and Russia. Weakened by conflicts in Ukraine and Lebanon, Moscow and Tehran signaled they could no longer sustain their backing of the Assad regime. Russia, which previously propped up Assad with air power and military bases, called for a peaceful transition but distanced itself from any direct involvement.
On Sunday, Iranian officials said it is now up to Syrians to decide their country’s fate, but added that ties between Tehran and Damascus will continue based on the two countries’ “far-sighted and wise approach,” Reuters noted.
Even so, analysts suggested that the collapse of the Syrian regime is a major setback for Tehran and its regional influence. Former Israeli intelligence chief Amos Yadlin described the development as a “severe blow” to Iran’s axis of influence, which relied on Syria as a key logistical hub to provide weapons to its proxies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, for example, CNN added.
Meanwhile, Russia could lose its Mediterranean naval base.
After the news of Assad’s departure, celebrations broke out across Syria, with video footage of residents in Damascus toppling statues of the leader and members of his family, including his father, former President Hafez Assad who died in 2000.
Inmates poured out of jails after rebels blasted away the locks on their cells, wrote Reuters separately. Reunited families wept with joy as the newly freed prisoners ran through the Damascus streets holding up the fingers of both hands to show how many years they had been in prison. Thousands of people congregated at a main square in Damascus waving and chanting “Freedom.”
Assad’s regime had jailed hundreds of thousands of political prisoners. For Syrians, the fall of Damascus brought a sudden unexpected end to a war that had been in deep freeze for years, with hundreds of thousands already dead, cities pounded to dust, an economy hollowed out by global sanctions, and no resolution in sight, wrote Reuters.
Meanwhile, Assad’s fall may also allow millions of refugees scattered for more than a decade in camps across Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan to finally return home.
Even so, diplomats and observers worry that his ousting will result in a power vacuum in Syria, where dozens of militias with competing agendas operate.
In his Sunday declaration, al-Jolani pledged to hold elections and also to maintain Syria’s institutions, and protect its religious and ethnic diversity, though skepticism remains about his group’s intentions and ability to govern a fractured nation.
Analysts warned the situation could mirror Libya’s chaotic aftermath after the removal of longtime autocrat Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.
Neighboring countries, including Israel and Turkey, are on high alert: Israel deployed troops into the Golan Heights buffer zone for the first time since 1974, citing security concerns.
And international leaders are scrambling to address the aftermath: Russian, Iranian, and Turkish foreign ministers met in Qatar to discuss a diplomatic framework for Syria’s transition. Qatari officials warned of renewed cycles of violence if a political solution is not reached quickly.
At the same time, security analysts highlighted the challenges of uniting a fractured rebel coalition and stabilizing a nation devastated by 13 years of war.
Back to the Polls
ROMANIA
Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the first round of the Nov. 24 presidential election, citing foreign interference and procedural violations, in an unprecedented decision that has plunged the country into political chaos, the Associated Press reported.
Friday’s ruling follows declassified intelligence reports that alleged that Russian state actors orchestrated a coordinated online campaign to boost far-right candidate Călin Georgescu, who had emerged as the surprise frontrunner. Georgescu’s popularity surged on social media platforms such as TikTok and Telegram through a sleeper network activated two weeks before the vote, according to the reports.
The documents also found around $1 million in undeclared funding for his campaign, Euronews noted.
In its ruling, the top court cited the use of artificial intelligence, undeclared financing, and preferential treatment on social media as key factors that distorted the election’s outcome.
It declared that the election must be rerun entirely, including the candidate registration process. That decision postponed a runoff vote to be held Sunday, Dec. 8.
Voting stations abroad, which had already opened for the runoff, were shut down, and a new date for the presidential vote will be set after Romania’s new government is formed.
Georgescu, who claimed zero campaign spending, condemned the ruling as a “barbaric act” and an attack on democracy, while second-place candidate, Elena Lasconi, called the decision “illegal, immoral, and crushes the very essence of democracy.”
Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who finished third, supported the annulment, calling it the “only correct solution” given evidence of Russian interference.
The annulment has sparked fears of unrest in the European Union and NATO member state, with political leaders urging calm amid growing distrust in state institutions.
Late last week, the European Commission requested information from TikTok over its role in the election, emphasizing concerns about the platform’s use in spreading disinformation and foreign propaganda.
Romania now faces prolonged political and electoral chaos, with new elections unlikely before spring 2025.
Walking the Plank
SOUTH KOREA
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol narrowly survived an impeachment motion over the weekend after his short-lived declaration of martial law last week, even as prosecutors investigate treason charges against him, CNBC reported.
Yoon instituted martial law, citing frustration with an opposition-controlled parliament, which he accused of obstructing governance and harboring “anti-state forces.”
The announcement was accompanied by military deployments to parliament, the National Assembly, and marked the first invocation of martial law in more than 40 years.
However, lawmakers unanimously voted to overturn the declaration within six hours, forcing the president to rescind the decree before dawn.
On Saturday, opposition legislators, who hold a majority, introduced an impeachment motion but fell short of the two-thirds majority needed after Yoon’s conservative People Power Party (PPP) boycotted the vote.
Yoon has apologized publicly for the declaration of martial law, promising to take legal and political responsibility while pledging to refrain from such a declaration again.
However, South Korean prosecutors have launched a treason investigation into his move, with former Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun detained Sunday for allegedly recommending the action, CBS News reported.
If found guilty of treason, Yoon could face life imprisonment or even the death penalty. While presidents typically have immunity from prosecution, that does not extend to charges of rebellion or treason.
The political crisis has sparked mounting public fury and massive protests, with police estimating more than 100,000 demonstrators gathered near parliament over the weekend. Yoon’s approval rating has plummeted to almost single digits, further fueling calls for his removal.
At the same time, the opposition has said it would again try to impeach Yoon.
The upheaval also comes at a critical time as the export-driven economy grapples with slowing growth and rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The turmoil has also raised international concerns, disrupting Seoul’s alliances and delaying US-South Korea defense meetings.
In an effort to ameliorate the situation, Yoon’s party has proposed that Prime Minister Han Duck-soo take over state affairs temporarily to facilitate Yoon’s “orderly exit,” though the opposition Democratic Party rejected the move as unconstitutional and vowed to push for his resignation or impeachment, Bloomberg wrote.
DISCOVERIES
Basic Instincts
Throughout history, humans have recorded instances of animals behaving oddly ahead of catastrophic natural phenomena, such as volcanic eruptions or earthquakes, as if these creatures could sense them.
For example, Thucydides, an ancient Greek historian, claimed that rats, dogs, snakes, and weasels left the city of Helice shortly before an earthquake in 373 BCE. Similarly, snakes and rats were observed escaping their burrows in 1975 just before the Haicheng earthquake in China.
A team of scientists who believe this behavior isn’t just a coincidence are now recruiting a wide array of fauna to help them anticipate disasters, tracking their movements from space.
In a program to be launched next year by the International Cooperation for Animal Research Using Space (Icarus), tiny transmitters will be fitted to mammals, birds, and insects, intended to monitor their movements with satellites.
“Ultimately, we hope to launch a fleet of around six satellites and establish a global observation network that will not only provide details of wildlife movements and animal health across the planet but reveal how creatures respond to natural phenomena like earthquakes,” project leader Martin Wikelski, from the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior in Germany, told the Guardian.
The researchers say that this program will not only study how the animals react to natural events, but also provide new insights into migration patterns, the spread of diseases, and the impact of the climate crisis on these animals.
Early experiments have already been conducted on Mount Etna in Sicily. “We have found the behavior of goats is pretty good at predicting large volcanic eruptions,” said Wikelski.
Before an eruption, the goats became nervous and refused to move to higher pastures as they usually do. “They know beforehand what is coming,” he added. “We don’t know how they do it, but they do.”
Dogs, sheep, and other farm animals have also been monitored on the Abruzzo Mountain near Rome. The researchers found that the animals acted in ways that predicted seven out of eight major earthquakes which occurred in the region over the past 12 years.
During the build-up to an earthquake, tectonic plates slide across each other under enormous pressures, and that throws out ions from the rocks into the air. The animals may be reacting to that, researchers say.
The conducted studies and Icarus have only been made possible through the advancement of tagging technology. The tiny digital transmitters included small lithium batteries and cheap minuscule GPS devices, making the tags for the animals only a few grams of weight. This now allows researchers to track most vertebrate species.
This technology can be used not only on how animals react to geological changes, but also for studying wildlife health from space. For example, when attaching electronic ear tags to wild boars, researchers can analyze changes in the behavior of the animals that show if they have been infected with African swine fever.
According to the researchers, knowing when a disease outbreak occurs in the wild can be important to preventing the spread of the disease to farms.
The program will launch next year using a small satellite the team has built called the Icarus CubeSat. Afterward, researchers want to scale up to monitor animals, birds, and insects as they migrate.
They are hoping to figure out which species respond to which events and how reliable they are in their response in order to construct this “animal early warning system,” they wrote. Essentially, harnessing animals’ “seventh” sense to benefit humanity.