Peas in a Pod
NEED TO KNOW
Peas in a Pod
INDIA
The Indian multinational conglomerate Adani Group recently announced an $88.5 billion investment in renewable energy, cement, and logistics projects in the western Indian state of Rajasthan.
Karan Adani, who serves as managing director of Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, discussed the plan at an event attended by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Gautam Adani, Karan’s father and the chairman of Adani Group, reported Bloomberg.
These plans could make the Adani Group the biggest producer of cement in India, the world’s most populous country. They are only one example, furthermore, of the Adani Group’s projects. The company is also building a new airport in Mumbai, the world’s largest solar and wind generating plant on the Pakistani border, a new shipping port in Kerala, and other infrastructure.
Modi’s presence at the event was important because, a few weeks before, American prosecutors in New York had charged Gautam Adani and other company officials on multiple counts of fraud, including bribing Indian officials, lying to investors about their actions, and wire and securities fraud. Adani and his associates are accused of spending around $265 million on the scheme.
The accused have called the allegations “baseless.”
“The more bold your dreams, the more the world will scrutinize you,” Adani said recently at an awards ceremony in northern India covered by the Associated Press. “In today’s world, negativity spreads faster than facts. And as we work through the legal process, I want to reconfirm our absolute commitment to world-class regulatory compliance.”
But, however valid or not that the claims may be, they are having a big impact on India because of the scale of the conglomerate, “which is so intertwined with government priorities that it is almost synonymous with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s India,” the Economist wrote.
As a result, the fallout has been swift and furious, powering the opposition in parliament, for example, to revive allegations that Modi has favored Adani and blocked investigations that might unveil bribery schemes like the one that American prosecutors have depicted, Reuters added.
The case also raises new questions about judicial and regulatory independence under Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party, and could slow an infrastructure program as well as other initiatives in the pipeline.
It’s not clear if the Americans can get to Adani. Under the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the US claims jurisdiction over anyone who uses the US financial systems or targets American investors. But the US must file a request with India asking for Modi to extradite the chairman, explained Al Jazeera. That request has not yet been issued.
Still, Modi might concur with people like financier Mark Mobius that the US has overstepped its bounds, the Times of India reported. Mobius admitted, however, that he needed to see the American prosecutors’ evidence to know whether they had a case against Adani.
Yet already, the case has impacted financing from abroad as well as deals and investment: For example, Kenya’s President William Ruto cancelled two deals with Adani companies, including one to operate an airport. TotalEnergies of France halted new investments with the company until the charges are cleared.
“For international investors, (the charges) raise new questions about the probity and integrity of Indian regulators and business leaders, while casting doubts on the nation’s preferred narrative of an ascending economy that offers a safe alternative to a corrupt and capricious China,” the Financial Times wrote, adding that the case “puts the reputation of India Inc on trial.”
The biggest fallout might be the warming US-India relationship, analysts said. Already under strain because of an indictment of an Indian government employee in a murder-for-hire scheme targeting a Sikh separatist leader in New York, now there are questions about whether Modi would protect Adani, or if he even has a choice because of how enshrined the company is in Indian economic and political affairs, as the Wall Street Journal noted.
“In theory, Modi could decide to distance himself from Mr. Adani, who has embarrassed the prime minister internationally,” the WSJ wrote. “But it would be difficult for Mr. Modi to cut Mr. Adani loose even if he wanted to.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
A Tale of Two Blocs
WEST AFRICA
West African leaders approved the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) next month, but offered a six-month grace period until July 2025 in a final bid to prevent the bloc’s fragmentation and preserve regional unity, the BBC reported.
During a Sunday meeting in Nigeria, ECOWAS leaders described the decision as “disheartening” but emphasized ongoing mediation efforts led by Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Togo’s Faure Gnassingbé.
However, the three countries’ military juntas have shown little inclination to reverse course, with Niger’s leaders calling their decision “irreversible.”
The withdrawal will be effective on Jan. 29, but ECOWAS officials noted that the trio can be readmitted should they decide to rejoin the community by July 29.
The decision follows the announcement by the three junta-led Sahel nations earlier this year to leave the 49-year-old bloc after refusing ECOWAS demands to restore civilian rule following coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger between 2020 and 2023.
The bloc suspended their memberships, imposed sanctions and even threatened military intervention following Niger’s coup last year.
In response, the three Sahel nations announced their withdrawal and recently formed their own bloc, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
Observers described the departure as a major blow to ECOWAS, which will lose 76 million people and over half its geographical area, undermining efforts to boost regional economic and security cooperation, Bloomberg added.
The Sahel states have also pivoted toward alliances with Russia, Iran, and Turkey, accusing ECOWAS of being overly aligned with Western powers.
Established in 1975, the regional bloc promotes free movement of goods and people among its members. Analysts cautioned that the withdrawal of the three landlocked Sahel nations will be a challenge for trade and integration because they are heavily reliant on coastal ports in countries such as Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Senegal.
Even so, the AES bloc noted that the rights of ECOWAS citizens to “enter, circulate, reside, establish and leave the territory” of the new bloc would be maintained, which signals a willingness to maintain good relations despite their withdrawal.
Stepping on the Cracks
CANADA
Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned Monday from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet, citing irreconcilable differences over fiscal policy, as the government faces declining popularity and a looming economic crisis tied to US tariff threats, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Freeland, who also served as deputy prime minister, said Trudeau informed her last week that she would no longer serve as finance minister, offering her another cabinet position instead.
She described the decision to leave as “the only honest and viable path” forward, highlighting weeks of disagreement over government spending.
Freeland criticized Trudeau’s recent policies, including a two-month sales tax holiday and $175 payments to Canadians. She called them “costly political gimmicks” at a time when Canada faces the threat of a 25 percent tariff on exports from US President-elect Donald Trump. Economists have warned such tariffs could trigger a recession in Canada.
The departure is a significant political blow for Trudeau, who has already had several senior ministers leave his cabinet, including Housing Minister Sean Fraser.
Analysts added that Freeland’s exit underscored internal divisions within the Liberal government as it grapples with rising living costs, voter dissatisfaction, and a resurgent Conservative Party, which holds a 20-point lead in recent polls.
They added that losing Freeland, widely respected for her leadership during the NAFTA renegotiations,– could further weaken Trudeau’s authority and deepen doubts about his ability to lead the party into next year’s election, the Associated Press wrote.
Trudeau, who channeled his father’s political legacy to win three consecutive terms, is now facing one of the most challenging moments of his tenure. The Liberals must rely on support from opposition parties to govern, and party members are questioning whether the prime minister should seek an unprecedented fourth term.
Trudeau has repeatedly said he would stay on as prime minister and seek reelection next year.
No Quarter
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO/ RWANDA
Peace talks between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) collapsed this week, further derailing efforts to end the protracted conflict in the eastern DRC, and leaving the region’s escalating humanitarian crisis unresolved, Al Jazeera reported.
On Sunday, Angola – which mediated the talks – announced that the summit between DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame would not take place in the Angolan capital Luanda.
While Angolan officials did not elaborate on why the meeting was canceled, the DRC presidency blamed Rwanda’s refusal to participate in the meeting as the reason for the breakdown.
The government in Kigali, Rwanda’s capital, reportedly demanded direct talks between the DRC government and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels, a largely ethnic Tutsi group that has seized sizeable territory in resource-rich eastern Congo since 2021.
However, the DRC maintains that the M23 is a proxy for Rwandan military forces and has refused direct negotiations without Rwanda’s withdrawal.
Sunday’s talks, mediated by Angolan President João Lourenço under the African Union’s auspices, had been seen as a critical opportunity to broker peace after years of conflict.
Their collapse comes after months of fragile ceasefires and renewed fighting.
A truce brokered by Angola in August briefly stabilized the frontline, but clashes reignited in October.
Last week, the DRC military accused M23 rebels of killing 12 civilians in North Kivu province. The armed group denied the allegation, calling it government propaganda.
M23 is one of about 100 other armed factions that have contributed to decades of violence in the eastern DRC, displacing over seven million people, according to Africanews.
Rwanda has long denied supporting M23 but admitted in February to deploying troops and missile systems in eastern Congo, citing security threats from the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) – a militia formed by ethnic Hutus involved in Rwanda’s 1994 genocide.
Recent negotiations outlined plans for a phased withdrawal of Rwandan forces and neutralization of the FDLR, but no significant progress has been made, according to Agence France-Presse.
Meanwhile, international observers, including the United States, continue to express grave concern over the ceasefire violations.
DISCOVERIES
Lost in Evaporation
It’s hard to imagine a world without the Mediterranean Sea and its coastlines, rich in beauty, history, and culture. But around 5.5 million years ago, almost three-quarters of that glittering sea evaporated into the thin air, a calamity known as the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC).
For years, scientists were puzzled by how such an event could have occurred.
But now, a new study published in Nature Communications has provided new insights into the evaporation process, according to Science Alert.
The international team of scientists found that the extreme evaporation event happened in two phases, and were also able to chart when, where, and how 70 percent of the Mediterranean’s water was lost, by analyzing chlorine isotypes in the salt deposited in the seabed and building numerical models and simulations.
The first phase came after 35,000 years of restricted water flow between the Atlantic Ocean and the sea, in the area now known as the Strait of Gibraltar. The seawater wasn’t being replenished with fresh water from the Atlantic, which led to the deposit of salt and sped up water evaporation in the Mediterranean.
In the following 10,000 years, namely the second phase, the Mediterranean was completely isolated, further accelerating the evaporation process. The researchers found that in some areas, water levels dropped as much as 1.3 miles.
The team suggested that as the water receded during phase two, the underwater ridge across the Strait of Sicily would have been exposed, splitting the Mediterranean Sea in two and forming a land bridge connecting Africa to Europe. This then led to faster rates of evaporation and more salt deposits in the eastern Mediterranean due to the restriction of the flow of water, furthering the problem.
While the exact reasons behind why the Mediterranean became isolated are still unknown, the researchers have acknowledged that the late Miocene era was marked by significant tectonic activity. The MSC itself probably correlated with greater upheaval, with pressure lifted on the surface crust and the surrounding areas drying out.
“The huge size of the Mediterranean depression created by MSC water level drawdown – corresponding to a volume loss of 69 percent of the Mediterranean water body – would have generated planetary-scale climate effects, inducing changes in precipitation patterns, a scenario suggested by rainfall proxy data,” said the authors in the paper.
Meanwhile, the Zanclean megaflood filled the Mediterranean some 5.3 million years ago via the Strait and reversed the impact of the MSC, according to a paper published in Earth-Science Reviews. Still, the researchers of this new study maintain that their findings on the MSC “have broader implications for the biological, geologic and climatic evolution of the Mediterranean realm, and beyond.”
Regardless, the Strait of Gibraltar is nowadays much wider and deeper than it was in phase 1 of the MSC, allowing the continuous inflow of Atlantic Ocean water to replenish the Mediterranean. If it wasn’t for this connection, it is estimated that the sea level would gradually shrink, dropping nearly 20 inches every year, making it smaller and saltier.
Correction: In Friday’s NEED TO KNOW section, we said in our “Yin and the Yang” item that former Brazilian leader Jair Bolsonaro was a former army officer who tortured civilians under the military junta that ruled Brazil from 1964 to 1985. That is incorrect. Bolsonaro, a former military officer, was criticized for extolling those in that period who tortured civilians. We apologize for the error.