We the People
Dear Readers,
Over the holidays, GlobalPost is bringing you special coverage of the key geopolitical issues facing some of the major regions of the world in 2025.
Today, we take a look at Asia.
We wish you happy holidays and best wishes for the New Year.
Your GlobalPost Team
NEED TO KNOW
We the People
ASIA
In December, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol shocked South Koreans and the rest of the world by declaring martial law, only to be forced to backtrack hours later by outraged lawmakers.
That miscalculation by Yoon was a thunderous crescendo to a year that tested democracy across Asia as millions of people went to the polls, faced political crises, repression or even threats to their democratic systems.
In some cases, people power won, and it won big.
Analysts say that 2025 promises more tests, more turmoil, and, possibly, more shows of democratic resilience.
For South Korea, Asia’s fourth largest economy, a bastion of stability, and a key Western strategic partner, 2025 will start out in limbo. Yoon is out, for now, after being impeached in a second attempt by lawmakers in mid-December. Interim President Han Duck-soo, who took over after Yoon’s impeachment, was himself impeached less than two weeks later.
Analysts say that while the country evaded a coup, it’s shaken and the impacts will continue to reverberate in 2025, with the chaos putting the country at “grave risk.” “The political mess Yoon created is one modern history’s worst self-inflicted economic wounds … and left Seoul in disarray,” wrote Forbes.
Currently, the country is in political and economic limbo and will remain so until judges decide Yoon’s fate – it could take six months. Still, the public fury to the martial law announcement showed the resilience of the country’s democratic system, wrote Lauren D. Gilbert of the Atlantic Council.
“The South Korean people fought with blood, sweat, and tears to institute a true democracy,” she said. “South Koreans are very protective of their democracy … (Yoon’s) move was undoubtedly one step too far for the South Korean public and the calls for impeachment were a statement from the population that they will not take a threat to the democratic process lightly.”
Elsewhere in Asia, there were less dramatic if not less consequential political tremors, and overall, the “year of elections” that saw millions of voters going to the polls in India, Japan, Indonesia, Taiwan and elsewhere on the continent, didn’t necessarily strengthen democracy, wrote the Council on Foreign Relations.
In some countries, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, authoritarian leaders used tactics such as electoral fraud, political detentions, and other measures to manipulate the vote and secure their hold on power. In Bangladesh, the opposition didn’t even bother to show up for elections early last year.
In Pakistan, anti-government protests broke out continually in 2024 over the jailing of opposition leader Imran Khan on numerous charges even as candidates backed by his party took a plurality in elections in January in spite of vigorous attempts by the government to prevent such wins. But then Pakistan today, say analysts, is more or less a military state, and far more authoritarian than it was several years ago: “Creeping authoritarianism (in Pakistan) threatens democracy for decades to come,” wrote the South China Morning Post.
Next door, in the world’s largest democracy, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2024 took the most votes overall in an election marked by intimidation of the press, civil society, and opponents, the demonization of the Muslim minority and other measures to create an unfair advantage. Even so, the party lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since coming to power a decade ago. That could have consequences in 2025 as the party tries to implement its agenda, wrote the Economist. Already it has forced some U-turns, and tempered Modi’s Hindu-nationalist agenda and some of his strongman instincts, the magazine added, while emboldening civil society activists and the opposition.
Indonesia, meanwhile, the heavyweight power in Southeast Asia, saw a change in leadership in 2024 that essentially followed a classic horse trade: Popular former President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, once a heralded reformer, traded his endorsement of a disgraced general, Prabowo Subianto, in exchange for his son, Gibran Rakabuming Rakarun, being put on the ticket as Prabowo’s number two. The son, with no political experience, was too young legally to run – until the top court, run by Jokowi’s brother-in-law – changed the rules. Prabowo won handily.
Now, wrote World Politics Review, a few months after taking office, it’s likely that Prabowo and Jokowi in 2025 may also further degrade Indonesia’s democracy, once one of the most vibrant in Southeast Asia.
“Jokowi already badly damaged the country’s democratic institutions by engaging in opaque and dynastic politics, stymieing Indonesia’s anti-corruption commission, reintroducing the military in many areas of domestic politics, and recently taking the helm of Golkar, the dynastic, often-corrupt party that traces its roots back to Indonesia’s former dictator Suharto,” the magazine wrote. “Now the two men seem ready to go even further … (and that) could spell more bad news for the country’s already eroded democracy.”
In some Asian countries, elections meant little when governing institutions moved to block their results even as opposition leaders and civil society activists in 2024 continued to fight for greater openness and representation. In Thailand, for example, the country’s top court, generally opposed to democratic reform, banned the Move Forward party in August, a progressive party that had won the most seats in the country’s parliamentary elections a year earlier but was unable to form a majority.
Move Forward had pushed for reform of the kingdom’s harsh lèse-majesté laws, which impose harsh punishments for speaking negatively about the monarch.
In February 2025, Thais are scheduled to vote in a referendum on a new constitution, one that is expected to deepen democracy. However, the vote is likely to be postponed, wrote the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), again repeating a pattern in Thailand where the establishment quashes any attempt at deeper democratization.
That situation leaves Thailand’s political system at a crossroads, added the think tank, with the continued dominance of the military and conservative elites only perpetuating instability. “The country needs to reform institutional structures that enable the military and elites to hold disproportionate power,” the CSIS wrote. “Opposition forces in both the government and the public have grown stronger, fueled by perceptions of the regime’s illegitimate autocratization.”
In neighboring Myanmar, meanwhile, weapons have replaced the ballot box since a military coup in 2021 usurped power from a democratically elected government. A powerful insurgency, however, is threatening the military junta’s hold on the country. In December, the rebel Arakan Army wrested control of the country’s entire western border in another humiliation for the junta, the BBC reported.
Analysts say they expect to see more losses by the military government in 2025 and possibly peace negotiations because of Chinese and ASEAN pressure on both sides to come to the bargaining table. However, analysts told Voice of America that foreign pressure was unlikely to lead to a ceasefire: “The junta’s refusal to share power remains the primary obstacle,” said Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based expert on China-Myanmar relations. “Peace brought about by pressure cannot last long.”
Meanwhile, the junta has vowed to hold elections next year, but analysts say these are empty promises.
While Myanmar struggles along, Cambodia’s authoritarian leader Hun Sen sealed the deal: In 2023, he passed on rule to his son, Prime Minister Hun Manet, who hasn’t moved to change the cronyism or authoritarianism that marked his father’s 38 years at the helm. Since then, the elder has moved to consolidate his power.
That’s because he has become the ultimate helicopter parent, overseeing his son’s rule and getting actively involved when needed, or not, wrote David Hutt, a research fellow at the Central European Institute of Asian Studies, in Asia Nikkei. While many have incorrectly predicted the dynasty’s fall over the past few decades, he noted the regime is “stuck” and the ruling duo will be under increasing pressure from external forces and internal dissent in 2025.
While many voters in Asia will face a simmering status quo in 2025, others are getting a fresh start, brought about by the shocks administered via a fed-up and impatient electorate.
In Sri Lanka, voters in 2024 kicked out the political establishment and ushered in a left-leaning leader and his party, in a stunning parliamentary and presidential election upset. This promises to dramatically reshape the economy and upend its traditional corruption and cronyism, analysts say.
Now, Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and his leftist coalition have a mandate to fight poverty and graft in the island nation still recovering from a financial meltdown and resulting mass protests that led to the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa of the Rajapaksa dynasty in 2022. The results of the elections are a continuation of those protests that while ousting the country’s leader, still left his cronies in control in parliament, until now, added analysts.
Still, in 2025, the new leaders of the country will be severely tested. “Dissanayake faces high expectations as he has promised to clean up the old politics that got his country into a political and economic mess,” said Tamanna Salikuddin of the United States Institute of Peace. “The enduring economic and financial challenges that Sri Lanka faces are the very reason that many citizens voted for Dissanayake, and yet solving those problems will be his most daunting task.”
Meanwhile, in another shock election in Asia, Japan’s powerful Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has ruled the country for most of the past 70 years, lost its majority in parliament.
Not only did that suggest that the stability-loving, risk-adverse Japanese electorate was getting impatient with political scandals and economic malaise, but that next time around, the opposition may beat the LDP and upend the political landscape completely.
Regardless, in 2025, analysts say Japan will face “a new normal” of uncertainty and possibly instability with frequent changes of government that will undermine its international influence.
“Japanese politics has entered uncharted waters, where the patterns and customs of the past do not apply,” wrote Kazuto Suzuki of Chatham House. “There are now doubts both at home and abroad as to whether (Prime Minister Shigeru) Ishiba, who has a weak party base, will be able to stay on and steer the government.”
Another country facing a serious test is Bangladesh. This summer, people around the world watched one of the most dramatic displays of people power in Asia in 2024. Tens of thousands of protesters, angry at the violent crackdowns, corruption, and cronyism marking the 15-year rule of former Bangladeshi leader Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League, forced her to flee the country.
Soon after, the student-led protesters ushered in a caretaker government led by respected economist and microcredit pioneer, Muhammad Yunus. In 2025, the interim government will continue to attempt to reform the country’s institutions and hold free and fair elections for the first time in many years, the International Crisis Group wrote. The situation is risky, it’s messy, but it has strong momentum, it added. And meanwhile, the protest leaders are watching vigilantly, even as they participate in the rebuilding of their political landscape and country into a robust democracy that serves everyone, and ensures no autocrats can take power again.
It’s moving toward what the students call, “Bangladesh 2.0.,” Yunus told Time, “and it’s something greater than we have ever seen.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
The World, Briefly section will return on Jan. 3, 2025.
DISCOVERIES
Ghoulish Steps
Recent renovations of a 17th-century building in the Dutch city of Alkmaar unveiled a macabre, yet fascinating relic: A centuries-old tiled floor partially filled with bones.
They were cow bones, according to archeologists inspecting the site, and not just any old cow bones but meticulously cut metacarpal and metatarsal bones – leg bones in cows.
“We were very happy to have the chance to see this bone floor with our own eyes,” Alkmaar archeologist Nancy de Jong said per LiveScience, who was part of the team analyzing the floor. “It is always a privilege to uncover something from a long-gone era and add new information to the history of Alkmaar.”
De Jong and her colleagues explained that such bone flooring is rare and only a handful of examples have been found in Dutch port towns, such as Hoorn and Edam.
This type of flooring dates as far back as the 15th century, but the new find has left researchers scratching their heads about its purpose and origins.
The house in Alkmaar wasn’t built until 1609, raising the possibility that the bones were part of an older foundation beneath the existing structure, Newsweek noted.
The reason for using bones is another mystery. Tiles were not particularly expensive at the time, so the choice to fill gaps with cow bones might have served a specific purpose related to the building’s use.
Researchers suggested that the remains could have been a cheap and practical way to fill the gaps.
Alkmaar is home to the Dutch Cheese Museum and is famous for its cheesemaking history – dating back to 1365. Further investigations are planned to determine the extent of the bone floor and whether additional sections lie hidden beneath the structure.
“Discovering this floor is incredibly interesting,” Alkmaar councilor for heritage, Anjo van de Ven, said in the statement. “There are still so many hidden stories waiting for our team of archeologists to come and find them.”