Shuffling the Deck
NEED TO KNOW
Shuffling the Deck
RUSSIA
A statue of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the deceased leader of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, was recently unveiled in Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic (CAR).
President Faustin-Archange Touadéra was honoring the man and his fighters whom he had invited to the CAR in 2018 to help fight rebels seeking to overturn his authoritarian regime, the BBC explained. Prigozhin died in a plane crash in 2023 after staging an unsuccessful mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The statue is an ironic symbol of Russia’s ambitions in Africa, one of the country’s key spheres of influence since the West slapped sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine, and Syrian President Bashar Assad fled his country in ignominy in December.
Assad’s fall could now cost Russia its foothold in the Middle East by eliminating a crucial supply hub, Responsible Statecraft added, even as Russia’s clout in Africa might also be weakening.
This summer, for example, Wagner troops – who now operate under the name “Africa Corps” as Le Monde noted – suffered a major defeat in northern Mali. Ethnic Tuaregs seeking to create an independent state and al Qaeda-affiliated jihadists tracked down and killed dozens of Russian mercenaries in the remote desert.
That attack wasn’t surprising because some locals want to end Russia’s influence in the region, the Associated Press wrote. Citing Human Rights Watch, the AP detailed how Russian mercenaries and Malian troops have killed innocent civilians, kidnapped others, and burned down villages where they believed rebels fighting the regime of Malian President Col. Assimi Goïta are taking refuge.
Despite the setback, Russia has been trying to expand its power in the country and on the continent, the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted. Payments to the Africa Corps in the form of Malian gold, a vital resource that would help finance Russia’s war in Ukraine could be one reason why.
Still, the possible loss of Khmeimim air base and Tartus naval base in Syria, that Russia has been using to send personnel, fuel, and supplies to the military juntas ruling Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger would stymie that goal because they make up the network that fuels Russian operations in Africa. This has allowed Russia to expand its military, political, and economic power on the continent, wrote Bloomberg.
The Khmeimim air base, in particular, serves as an air bridge that has enabled Russia to rebuild some of its Cold War-era clout in Africa, particularly in places like the CAR and the Sudan.
“Without a reliable air bridge, Russia’s ability to project power in Africa collapses,” Anas el-Gomati, director of the Sadeq Institute, a think tank based in Libya, told the financial wire. “Russia’s entire operational strategy in the Mediterranean and Africa is hanging by a thread.”
Russia could develop a Plan B by turning to its allies in Libya, Cameroon, or Congo-Brazzaville to supply the landlocked CAR’s operations. CAR officials have already said they, in turn, would help to supply the Sahel operations.
But Libya could thwart those plans.
Russia has assisted military commander Khalifa Haftar, who holds sway in eastern Libya, the seat of the Government of National Stability, since a failed attempt in 2019-2020 to take Tripoli, where the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord is based. Now Russia wants to move its armaments from Syria to Libya, to the four bases it uses in the country. But these bases can’t easily replace the Syrian ones because they are too far from Russia given restrictions on flying through European airspace.
Meanwhile, that plan might be in jeopardy anyway if Libya successfully moves toward creating a unity government and elections as it pledged to do last month. At the same time, the government in Tripoli has ruled out any Russian weapons being placed in Libya, the Guardian noted.
Russia faces other challenges in Africa, too.
In late October, police in Chad arrested Wagner group operative Maxim Shugaley under mysterious circumstances, according to Voice of America. Shugaley is a notorious propagandist who has advanced Russia’s interests around the world.
Shugaley might have been seeking to undermine French interests in Chad. France historically has deep diplomatic ties in the region and stationed troops in the country – until they were asked to leave in mid-December. His arrest might show that African nations are “growing weary of Russian meddling,” wrote the Africa Defense Forum.
And Ukraine has also been taking its fight against Russia to Africa, noted World Politics Review. Ukrainian forces are now in Sudan to fight against Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, whose so-called Rapid Support Forces are seeking to overthrow the government with the help of the Africa Corps, the Kyiv Independent reported.
Ukrainians have also implied that they were instrumental in the losses suffered by Russia in Mali: Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said that the Malian rebels had received “all the information they needed, which allowed (them) to carry out their operation against the Russian war criminals” and Malian troops.
Soon after, Mali and Niger broke off relations with Ukraine.
Still, Ukraine might have won anyway this time because its assistance could lead to a rethink by Mali and other countries about how they deal with Russia, with Wagner forces being placed under greater state control, “much like the process currently underway in Libya,” Samuel Ramani, Russia-Africa relations expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies.
He added that “it might also give Burkina Faso and Niger, which are allowing small contingents of Russian advisers to operate in their countries … second thoughts about entrusting Russia more broadly with counter-terrorism missions.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Guayaquil Grief
ECUADOR
Ecuadoran officials identified four charred bodies as the remains of four boys who went missing in early December near a military base, in a case posing a challenge to President Daniel Noboa and his war on criminal gangs, the Guardian reported.
The boys, all of them Black and between the ages of 11 and 15, were residents of Las Malvinas, a poor district of the country’s largest city, Guayaquil. The children were returning from playing soccer on Dec. 8, when they were allegedly beaten and taken into custody by soldiers from the nearby Taura air base.
After being apprehended, the four were allegedly released 26 miles away, late at night, in an unfamiliar area.
Their remains were found on Christmas Eve.
The Ministry of Defense, which initially denied involvement, later said the boys were apprehended because of their involvement in a robbery, a claim prosecutors say lacks evidence.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense has also suggested that the boys could have been victims of organized crime after being released by the military. Public prosecutors are now investigating whether the military is responsible for the deaths. More than a dozen soldiers are in custody.
The incident has led to widespread outrage in Ecuador, where kidnapping, extortion, and murders have become commonplace, CBS News reported. Hundreds of people have protested, demanding the soldiers be prosecuted.
This incident comes amid attempts by Noboa to defeat criminal gangs that have gained in power and have been terrorizing the country over the past few years.
However, analysts say the case is a test of the president’s hardline policies – he came to power last year on a pledge to bring security back to Ecuador.
The Stranglehold
EUROPE
Ukraine halted the flow of Russian natural gas to Europe at the start of the new year, bringing an end to decades of energy transit via Soviet-era pipelines and raising fresh concerns about energy security across the European Union, CNBC reported.
The move followed Kyiv’s refusal to renew a five-year gas transit deal with Moscow amid the ongoing war, cutting off one of the last remaining links between Europe and Russia’s once-dominant energy network.
The deal, brokered by the EU in 2019, allowed Moscow to transport natural gas through Ukraine to European markets.
Under the agreement, Ukraine received transit fees of up to $1 billion annually, while Russia’s Gazprom maintained access to its European customers.
Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko described the decision as a “historic event,” signaling a blow to Russia’s revenue stream.
Moscow is expected to lose up to $6.5 billion annually in gas revenues, while Ukraine will be deprived of $1 billion a year in transit fees, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Observers noted that the gas transit cut-off marks a significant shift in Europe’s energy landscape, with Russia’s dominance over European energy markets further eroded.
Some analysts said that the impact on Europe’s energy security is limited due to extensive preparation, including diversified suppliers and reduced gas demand.
EU officials have insisted that the bloc was prepared for the stoppage, citing high gas storage levels – being 73 percent full across the EU, and at nearly 80 percent in Germany – and extensive efforts to diversify supply.
Since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe has drastically reduced its reliance on Russian gas, which accounted for 45 percent of imports before the war – but by 2023, only 10 months after Russia’s invasion, dropped to 15 percent. European countries have increased imports of liquified natural gas (LNG) from the United States and Qatar, as well as pipeline gas from Norway, Azerbaijan, and Algeria.
Still, some analysts warned that the cutoff will affect a number of European countries that are heavily reliant on Russian gas.
While Austria has emphasized its readiness for the stoppage, other EU countries, such as Slovakia and Hungary, have expressed frustration over the halt.
Slovakia, which imported approximately 3.2 billion cubic meters of gas in 2023, described the impact as “drastic,” with Prime Minister Robert Fico warning it could destabilize the EU while leaving Russia relatively unscathed, Euronews added.
Fico – who visited his ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, last month – has also accused Ukraine of exacerbating the EU’s energy challenges and suggested Slovakia might reconsider its emergency electricity exports to Kyiv.
Meanwhile, Moldova is also facing a heightened risk of shortages as the country declared a 60-day state of emergency over energy security in December.
Energy analysts cautioned the halt will further strain European energy markets, particularly if demand spikes due to cold weather or unforeseen supply disruptions.
New Year, Old Story
MONTENEGRO
Montenegro is observing three days of national mourning after 12 people, including two children, were killed on New Year’s Day in a rare mass shooting in the town of Cetinje, according to BBC News.
Authorities said the suspect, 45-year-old Aco Martinović, had been drinking heavily all day and got into an argument with another guest at a restaurant on the evening of Jan. 1.
Following the argument, Martinović went home and later returned to the restaurant with a gun, killing several people, including the owner of the restaurant and his two children, ages 10 and 13. Martinović then drove to five other locations in the Cetinje area and shot several more people, including members of his own family.
Afterward, the alleged shooter fled but was located and surrounded by police after an hours-long manhunt. He died en route to hospital after shooting himself in the head, Interior Minister Danilo Šaranović said, according to the Associated Press.
This is the second incident of a mass shooting in the town, Montenegro’s historical capital, in the past three years. Another man shot and killed 10 people, including children, following a family dispute in 2022, reported the AP.
After the latest shooting, the government has declared three days of national mourning and canceled all planned New Year’s festivities throughout the small Balkan country. Prime Minister Milojko Spajić said the shooting had “shrouded our country in black.”
The prime minister also said that the country’s security council would hold an emergency meeting on Thursday to “urgently consider all options” to protect the public from similar events, including a complete ban on weapons.
He added that “because we must ask ourselves after this who should be allowed to have guns in Montenegro,” according to the wire.
While mass shootings are still relatively uncommon in Montenegro, the nation has a strong gun culture, and many individuals possess weapons.
DISCOVERIES
Maternally Speaking
Many parents want their children to speak multiple languages. They devise plans to raise their kids in a bilingual setting, for example, one parent may speak only in Spanish to them while the other only uses English.
However, a new study has challenged that traditional approach.
New research shows that mothers have twice the impact on language exposure as fathers, the study showed, with bilingual families living in Montreal adopting an alternate approach in which both parents speak both languages to their children.
“This made sense to us, because there are a lot of adults in Montreal who are actively bilingual,” Andrea Sander-Montant, the study’s lead author, said in a statement. “It’s also telling us that families are using approaches that they feel comfortable with, despite traditional advice given to parents about raising bilingual children.”
The study was conducted with researchers analyzing data from questionnaires filled out by hundreds of families between 2013 and 2020. The researchers identified four main strategies employed by the parents: one-parent-one-language, both-parents-bilingual, one-parent-bilingual, and one-language-at-home.
Despite the parents detailing these strategies, the researchers found that what was reported may not have been actually going on at home.
“We found that none of these strategies told us much about what the children actually heard at home,” explained Krista Byers-Heinlein, a professor in the Department of Psychology at Concordia and the study’s supervising author, in a statement. “There was very little association between the strategies used and how much they were hearing of either language.”
When looking at the individual parent’s language use rather than the family’s overall strategy, the study authors found that mothers had up to twice the impact on language exposure compared with fathers.
“In the average family, if the mother is speaking only French, for example, the child will hear a lot of French,” said Byers-Heilein. “If the father is the only one speaking French, the child will hear a lot less.”
The influence of mothers was especially clear in heritage-language families. Among the 300 families studied, there was a subgroup of 6o families who were using a community language (either English or French) and a third heritage language at home. The study found that mothers were typically the parent transmitting the heritage language to the children, even if both parents spoke that third language.
“We think this may be the case because mothers still spend more time at home than fathers,” said Sander-Montant. “There may also be cultural factors at play, where mothers feel it is their responsibility to transmit the language.”
The researchers believe that this study has real-world implications for policymakers, healthcare workers, and professionals who give advice to bilingual families. They added that the research shows the need for flexible, case-by-case, and family-centered recommendations to support bilingual development.
“We estimate that young children need 20 to 30 waking hours weekly hearing each of the languages they are acquiring,” said Byers-Heinlein. “Rather than stressing about using this or that strategy, families can make a calculation of who is spending time with the child and then work backward to figure out how the child can receive enough experience in each language from fluent speakers.”