Before the Avalanche
NEED TO KNOW
Before the Avalanche
MOZAMBIQUE
Cyclone Chido blew through Mozambique last month. The storm’s 160-mile winds and the 10 inches of rain that fell within 24 hours killed at least 94 people and displaced more than 620,000, the BBC reported.
Some say the storm was a physical manifestation of the tempestuous forces now rocking the African country.
Protesters over the past month have taken to the streets and torched police stations, courthouses, and other symbols of the state’s authority. The violence reflects the rage that erupted after election officials confirmed that Daniel Chapo of the ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) political party won 65 percent of the vote in the country’s Oct. 9 presidential election, despite widespread allegations of vote rigging. More than 100 people have died in the unrest.
“There is total madness, people are burning everything that represents the state,” said Adriano Nuvunga, who leads the Centre for Democracy and Human Rights in the capital Maputo, in an interview with the Financial Times.
Frelimo has denied any wrongdoing. But European Union observers complained of the “unjustified alteration of election results” in the process.
Election officials said opposition candidate Venȃncio Mondlane of the Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos) won 24 percent of the vote, wrote Al Jazeera. Mondlane rejected that tally, however, saying he would hold his own inauguration this month because, he claims, he and his party really won 53 percent.
Mondlane had been in hiding since two of his key aides were assassinated in October as they prepared to challenge the election results in court. But on Thursday, Mondlane returned to the country, arriving to applause from workers at the airport, the Associated Press reported. In the arrivals hall, he knelt with a bible in his left hand and said, “I want to fight within this country and I will, until the very end, keep fighting for this country. I’m not willing to accept election results if they are the same as those announced up until now.”
As he spoke, security forces fired tear gas at hundreds of his supporters who had gathered near the airport to welcome him home.
Researchers say the instability and violence rocking the country doesn’t surprise them.
“The current crisis in Mozambique did not occur in a vacuum but is intertwined with historical grievances stemming from the country’s violent past,” wrote Radio France Internationale.
Since gaining independence from Portugal following a decade-long revolutionary war led by Frelimo, Mozambique has struggled with instability and internal conflict.
Initially, it became a one-party Marxist-Leninist state under the Frelimo government, which then faced an insurgency from the anti-communist Renamo party that began in 1977 and continued until the early 1990s.
Frelimo, which won the country’s first multi-party elections in 1994, has maintained tight control over the country since then as complaints about corruption and brutality have grown.
Part of the problem, wrote World Politics Review, is the mood of the country has changed: “While Mozambican voters were generally looking for change, Frelimo relied on old tricks to ensure an overwhelming victory, perhaps not appreciating the public’s reduced tolerance for such methods,” it wrote.
Meanwhile, young Mozambicans – 56 percent of the country’s population is younger than 19 – have no memories of Frelimo’s role in independence, say analysts. Instead, they say they have little future in a country where, despite its mineral riches, deep poverty and corruption are rampant, job opportunities few, and stability rare, especially because of a violent insurgency in the north that has displaced almost 600,000 people, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Now the increasingly repressive government tactics since October are fueling support for the opposition: The police have fired live bullets to suppress demonstrations, killing at least 100 people. The government also shut down the Internet and public transportation to suppress organizing. Even so, the leaders of the country are losing control of it.
Still, observers say Mondlane’s insistence that he should be president may or may not work as a political ploy. But it may not matter, wrote the Economist.
Throughout Africa, the young are frustrated and in some places, such as Botswana, Ghana, and Senegal, angry voters in 2024 threw out parties that had governed for decades.
“Where that option was unavailable, such as in Kenya, they have taken to the streets,” the magazine wrote. Still, in Mozambique, “a protest against vote-rigging has turned into a social revolt.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
A Defiant Coronation
VENEZUELA
Nicolás Maduro began his third term as Venezuela’s president over the weekend, despite widespread allegations of electoral fraud and mounting international condemnation and sanctions that have further deepened the country’s political, economic, and migration crises, the Washington Post reported.
On Friday, Maduro was sworn in even as the US, the United Kingdom, and the European Union imposed new sanctions, Reuters reported. The US also increased its reward by $10 million to $25 million for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Maduro on drug trafficking charges.
The US, meanwhile, also issued a $25 million reward for Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and a $15 million reward for Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, as well as new sanctions against eight other officials including the head of state oil company PDVSA, Héctor Obregón Pérez.
The sanctions follow the inauguration that came after a disputed election this summer that saw Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE), dominated by Maduro loyalists, declare him the winner but without providing evidence.
Opposition candidate Edmundo González presented verified voting tallies showing he won with 67 percent of the vote over Maduro’s 30 percent. Independent observers, including the Carter Center, have confirmed the opposition’s findings.
Maduro’s controversial victory sparked demonstrations in the country, prompting the government to launch a crackdown that saw hundreds of protesters and opposition figures arrested.
Days before the inauguration, Venezuelan officials released 146 protesters, bringing the total number of prisoners freed to 1,515 ahead of Maduro’s inauguration. However, human rights groups estimate that at least 2,000 people were detained during post-election unrest and 23 protesters were killed.
On Thursday, opposition leader María Corina Machado was briefly detained after leading a protest in the capital Caracas, the Associated Press reported.
Meanwhile, González – who is currently in exile – has vowed to return to Venezuela to restore democracy.
In a video message on Friday, he described Maduro’s inauguration as a coup d’état, in which Madura was “crowning himself as dictator,” the Guardian noted.
The US, Canada, Argentina, and Peru have recognized González as the rightful president-elect.
Despite González’s claims and Western support, questions linger about whether the military – long a pillar of Maduro’s rule – might shift its support. At Maduro’s inauguration, army and police leaders reaffirmed their loyalty to the president, CNN wrote.
Analysts warned that Maduro’s contested presidency will heighten Venezuela’s isolation and repression, adding that his increasingly authoritarian tactics and the absence of reforms signal a bleak outlook for the country.
The oil-rich South American nation has been grappling with deep economic and social crises, including hyperinflation, food shortages, and the exodus of nearly eight million Venezuelans over the past decade. Observers cautioned that additional sanctions could further strain the collapsing economy.
A Growing Angst
GERMANY/ AUSTRIA
Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of the eastern German town of Riesa over the weekend to block the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party conference, while similar protests erupted in the Austrian capital of Vienna, as citizens voiced their opposition to the growing influence of the far-right in Europe, Politico reported.
In Riesa, an estimated 10,000 protesters chanting “No to Nazis” disrupted roads leading to the AfD venue, delaying its start by two hours.
During the party meeting, the AfD nominated co-leader Alice Weidel as its candidate for chancellor in next month’s federal elections. Meanwhile, Weidel unveiled a platform that included strict border controls, mass deportations, and a return to nuclear and coal energy, alongside the reopening of Nord Stream gas pipelines with Russia, Agence France-Presse said.
Earlier this week, Weidel received a major boost from tech mogul Elon Musk, who hosted a livestream chat with her on his platform X, during which he endorsed the AfD as the only way to “save Germany.”
X also streamed the conference live, garnering over four million views by Saturday evening.
The AfD has become Germany’s second-largest party and is currently polling at around 22 percent. However, Weidel’s bid for power remains weak because all major parties, including the leading conservative Christian Democratic Union, have ruled out coalitions with the far-right group.
Saturday’s demonstrations in Riesa followed one in Vienna Friday in which more than 10,000 people demonstrated against coalition talks between the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) and the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP).
Demonstrators carried placards reading “Nazis out” and accused the FPÖ of threatening democracy and human rights. The FPÖ won 29 percent of the vote in September’s elections and was tasked with forming a government after centrist coalition talks collapsed earlier this month.
Despite past resistance, pro-Russia interim ÖVP leader Christian Stocker has opened the door to a coalition with the FPÖ with Stocker saying he wants assurances from the ÖVP that it would limit Russian influence in the country, according to Reuters.
Analysts say the rise of far-right parties in Germany and Austria reflects growing discontent with the mainstream political parties and their perceived inabilities to counter growing malaise in the countries and region. In Germany, in particular, the AfD has capitalized on fears over rising energy costs and migration, while Austria’s FPÖ has leveraged frustration with inflation and housing shortages.
A Firm Grip
COMOROS
Comoros held its first round of parliamentary elections Sunday amid opposition boycotts and allegations of growing authoritarianism under President Azali Assoumani, raising concerns about transparency and voter participation in the Indian Ocean archipelago, the Associated Press reported.
As voters went to the polls, they were confronted with logistical issues such as a lack of ink or voting booths and some polling stations opened late, Agence France-Presse added.
Regardless, the ruling Convention for the Renewal of the Comoros (CRC) party is expected to dominate the elections after the second round on Feb. 16, with results expected next week, according to election officials.
The CRC secured 20 of 24 contested seats in the 2020 election, which opposition parties labeled a “masquerade” for not being free and fair, and boycotted the poll.
Sunday’s vote faced similar criticism, with opposition groups accusing Assoumani of consolidating power and undermining democratic norms.
Assoumani, 66, called for a “constructive opposition” while dismissing concerns over the vote’s credibility.
He first came to power in a coup in 1999 and has ruled for much of the past two decades. Now his son, Nour, is serving as a de facto prime minister, AFP said.
Comoros, home to 870,000 people, has experienced repeated political instability and military coups since gaining independence from France in 1975.
DISCOVERIES
The Miracles of Predators and Prey
Long before the age of swords and shields, nature hosted its own evolutionary arms race.
Then, around 520 million years ago, a small marine creature fought a predator in duels that in part drove the Cambrian explosion, according to scientists. The period is known for its rapid diversification, explained Cosmos Magazine.
“Predator-prey interactions are often touted as a major driver of the Cambrian explosion, especially with regard to the rapid increase in diversity and abundance of biomineralizing organisms,” wrote study lead author Russell Bicknell of the American Museum of Natural History in the institution’s blog post.
For their paper, a research team analyzed hundreds of shells of Lapworthella fasciculata, a marine creature that is distantly related to modern brachiopods. The shells were collected from South Australia’s Flinders Ranges and ranged in size from a grain of sand to an apple seed.
Researchers were specifically looking for the interactions between the L. fasciculata and the mysterious predator known for punching holes in its armor.
Their findings showed that more than 200 shells bore these telltale circular punctures, likely made by a soft-bodied predator such as a mollusk or worm.
Using scanning electron microscopy, the team uncovered a fascinating pattern: The researchers could see that as more shells were attacked over time, the shell walls became thicker to resist the predators.
The thicker shells suggest that L. fasciculata rapidly adapted to resist predators. But its enigmatic foe was also evolving more effective techniques to pierce through the thicker shells.
The shells not only reveal the intense battles of early marine ecosystems but also highlights how predation fueled evolutionary innovation, the authors noted.
“This critically important evolutionary record demonstrates, for the first time, that predation played a pivotal role in the proliferation of early animal ecosystems,” Russell wrote.
The study also demonstrated how these evolutionary arms races have contributed to increasing specialization in predator-prey relationships. For example, snakes developed venom to kill its prey – but then its prey, such as rodents, developed resistance.