When the Smoke Clears
NEED TO KNOW
When the Smoke Clears
LEBANON
Above the hills of Beirut, the marble halls of Baabda Palace, where the Lebanese president resides, have been silent for two years.
Lebanese lawmakers have tried – in dozens of attempts, the last being 18 months ago – to select an occupant, a successor to President Michel Aoun, after he stepped down in October 2022. But politics, the particularly complex politics of Lebanon’s sectarian system along with the powerful external patronage of its players, kept getting in the way.
On Jan. 9, however, lawmakers managed to do what seemed impossible – they put aside their differences and elected Gen. Joseph Aoun, the head of the Lebanese military, as their new president.
And just like that, the country turned a page.
“A new phase in the history of Lebanon begins today,” President Aoun said, as fireworks went off in the streets and horns blared around the capital in jubilation.
The election of a new president shouldn’t have been such a big deal, not least because the position is mainly a ceremonial post. But the symbolism of the election of Joseph Aoun in this devastated country wasn’t lost on anyone – or how much has changed in the past few months.
For two years, Lebanon existed in a political stalemate: the powerful Shiite group Hezbollah and its allies wanted one candidate, a man close to the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad, while almost everyone else wanted Joseph Aoun. Neither side could advance.
But after the 14-month war with Israel, which ended on Nov. 27 in a ceasefire, Hezbollah was not only leaderless with the death of Hassan Nasrallah, it lost influence. The group was blamed by a large part of the Lebanese population for dragging the country into a conflict that killed about 3,800 people and inflicted $8.5 billion in damages and economic losses on an already broken country.
Then in December, the Syrian regime collapsed. Long a force that controlled Lebanon in one way or another, the implosion next door freed the Mediterranean country, said analysts. Because with the collapse of the Syrian regime and the diminishment of Hezbollah, the dominance of Iran also ended: Almost overnight, Lebanon saw its default membership in the “axis of resistance” canceled.
“It’s a new political reality,” Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told the New York Times. “It will take time for this new reality to unfold but what we’ve seen so far is enough to show us that the tide has turned.”
While many Lebanese may feel joy and hope at the turn of events, Joseph Aoun and the new prime minister, Nawaf Salam, who was appointed last week against Hezbollah’s wishes, still have a momentous task ahead of them in stabilizing and rebuilding the battered country.
For example, Lebanon has been in an economic crisis for the past five years, has seen its economy contract by one-third, and its currency collapse in that period, according to the World Bank. Now it is desperate for money to rebuild after the war with Israel. The new president said it would be his priority to usher in economic stability and root out the correction that has played a large role in preventing its growth.
And the election of the new president, which was attended by the ambassadors of the US, Saudi Arabia, and elsewhere, signals a positive change in Lebanese politics, which means the unlocking of aid from donors, and begin fulfilling the terms of a 2022 bailout package from the International Monetary Fund.
Meanwhile, the 60-day ceasefire agreement with Israel ends later this month and it’s been shaky from the start. Aoun has promised to disarm Hezbollah, which is why he has support from the West, the Gulf states, and Israel. “The specter of renewed war is still on the horizon,” wrote Kim Ghattas, a fellow at Columbia University’s Institute of Global Politics, in an op-ed for the Financial Times. “Lebanon needs a president and a government that can negotiate the next phase.”
This week, with the selection of the new prime minister, the president signaled strongly that he wants to move the country forward, and quickly.
Some Lebanese desperately want to believe him.
“We hope that this will be a new phase for Lebanon,” one Beirut resident told France 24. “We hope this president can lead us toward becoming a country that is liveable for our children.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Tango for Three
ISRAEL/ WEST BANK & GAZA
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday said Israel’s security cabinet would meet later in the day to sign the ceasefire agreement with Hamas, the BBC reported, following a delay on Thursday to agreeing the long-awaited deal hoped to halt the 15 months of conflict in the Gaza Strip.
Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement following months of months of negotiations brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States on Wednesday.
Set to begin Sunday, it will consist of three phases including the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, as well as allow critical humanitarian aid to reach displaced civilians in Gaza.
The deal will also see the withdrawal of Israeli forces from most populated areas in the Palestinian enclave.
But Netanyahu delayed agreeing the deal Thursday because Hamas reneged on parts of the ceasefire agreement, NPR reported. He said the Palestinian armed group called for a “last-minute concession”, without specifying what that was. Israel earlier said Hamas was trying to dictate which Palestinian prisoners should be released in exchange for the Israeli hostages.
Hamas officials rejected Netanyahu’s accusations, saying that the group was “committed to the ceasefire agreement, which was announced by the mediators.”
While the deal is now set to be agreed, pressure remains from Netanyahu’s far-right allies who oppose any deal with Hamas. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionist party warned Thursday that it would leave Netanyahu’s coalition if the agreement led to a permanent end of the war, according to the Financial Times.
The departure of far-right parties would spell the end of the ruling coalition and lead to early elections, which would likely end Netanyahu’s government, wrote Haaretz.
Even so, Netanyahu’s administration could operate as a minority government and potentially pass the deal with the help of opposition parties in parliament.
The war in Gaza began on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas and its allies launched an attack on southern Israel that killed about 1,200 people and saw around 250 others kidnapped. About 400 Israeli soldiers have died during the war.
Israel’s response resulted in a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with more than 46,000 Palestinians killed to date, according to Gazan health officials. Research published in the Lancet medical journal this week estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war is about 40 percent higher than the estimates by Gazan health officials, the Guardian reported.
Since the ceasefire was signed, Israeli strikes have continued to hit Gaza, with almost 80 people killed in strikes on Gaza City overnight Thursday, Reuters reported.
The Politics of Survival
FRANCE
Newly appointed French Prime Minister François Bayrou survived his first no-confidence vote on Thursday, underscoring the fragility of the government’s center-right coalition since elections last year swept President Emmanuel Macron’s allies out of office, France 24 reported.
The French far-left party, France Unbowed, requested the no-confidence vote after a speech by Bayrou laying out his budget priorities for 2025 – in spite of concessions to the left by offering new negotiations on a highly unpopular pension reform plan approved last year, according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, Bayrou also sweetened the pot by offering to scrap a cut in state medical reimbursements, increasing hospital spending by more than previously budgeted and dropping plans to axe 4,000 teachers.
Bayrou also committed to move forward on tax hikes worth Eur 21 billion ($24 billion) that his briefly installed predecessor Michel Barnier had planned, mostly affecting the wealthy and big companies.
As a result of the fragility of the government and those concessions, the Socialists – along with the right-wing National Rally Party – said they would not support the no-confidence motion because they were concerned that France has had four prime ministers in one year and that the work of the government is being stalled. In December, French lawmakers ousted Barnier over the 2025 budget.
Also, numerous parties are worried that such a vote would delay the 2025 budget. The Socialists and center-left parties, meanwhile, are worried that a successful no-confidence vote would open the door to a far-right takeover.
France has been facing political turmoil ever since Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called for early elections last June, following his party’s poor performance in the 2024 European Parliament elections that same month.
However, these snap elections highlighted France’s political divisions with no party or coalition securing a majority in parliament even as the left and the right outperformed Macron’s center allies.
Macron has acknowledged his decision to dissolve the National Assembly had led to “divisions” and “instability.” However, it’s not legally possible to call new snap elections until July.
The Ties That Constrict
UNITED KINGDOM
British Treasury Minister Tulip Siddiq resigned this week after weeks of scrutiny over her alleged ties to her aunt, ousted Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, with authorities in the South Asian country launching an anti-corruption probe against the former leader and her allies, the BBC reported.
Hasina, who led Bangladesh for over a decade, was deposed in 2024 for her increasingly authoritarian tactics and also allegations of far-ranging corruption. The interim government, headed by Nobel laureate economist Muhammad Yunus, has launched investigations into claims that senior officials from Hasina’s administration funneled public funds to acquire overseas properties.
In recent weeks, Bangladeshi authorities named Siddiq in these investigations, alleging that she benefited from such schemes, including a London flat gifted by a developer in 2004 with ties to the Hasina’s Awami League. She had initially said she received the property from her parents.
The former minister has also been accused of helping Hasina broker a deal with Russia for a nuclear power plant to be built at an inflated cost.
Siddiq denies the allegations and asked the United Kingdom Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s standards adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus, to conduct an investigation. Magnus concluded that there was no evidence of financial impropriety or breaches of the ministerial code.
However, he criticized Siddiq for failing to recognize the reputational risks posed by her ties to Hasina, who fled Bangladesh in August 2024 following mass anti-government protests, Politico noted.
In her resignation letter, Siddiq said she stepped down to prevent the matter from becoming a distraction for the government. Starmer accepted her resignation “with sadness,” reiterating that the investigation found no breach of the ministerial code.
Emma Reynolds, a lawmaker of the ruling Labour Party, has been appointed as her replacement.
Meanwhile, the resignation has drawn sharp reactions.
Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch criticized Starmer’s handling of the issue, calling it “weak leadership,” and claimed Siddiq’s position had been untenable for weeks.
In Bangladesh, Yunus suggested Siddiq might have unknowingly benefited from “plain robbery,” while urging accountability.
Siddiq’s resignation marks the second ministerial exit from Starmer’s government in two months, potentially denting public confidence in Labour’s governance. The Labour Party won the elections last year in a landslide.
DISCOVERIES
A Walk Among Giants
In the heart of Britain’s Oxfordshire, researchers recently uncovered an extraordinary “dinosaur highway” filled with nearly 200 footprints dating back 166 million years to the Middle Jurassic Period.
The discovery offers an unparalleled glimpse into the lives of some of the largest dinosaurs to ever roam the Earth.
Quarry worker Gary Johnson came across the highway last year after noticing “unusual bumps” in the clay at Dewars Farm Quarry, NPR reported.
His observation led to a week-long excavation involving more than 100 researchers and volunteers from the Universities of Oxford and Birmingham.
They uncovered five extensive trackways: Four belonging to Cetiosaurus, a colossal, long-necked herbivore reaching up to 60 feet in length, while one was left by Megalosaurus, a 30-foot-long carnivorous predator famous for its sharp, three-toed prints.
“These footprints offer an extraordinary window into the lives of dinosaurs, revealing details about their movements, interactions, and the tropical environment they inhabited,” said Kirsty Edgar from the University of Birmingham in a press release.
Edgar and her colleagues used drone photography and 3D modeling to capture more than 20,000 images and preserve the site in stunning detail. The longest trackway measured nearly 500 feet and revealed intricate mud deformations created as dinosaurs traversed through a lagoonal landscape resembling today’s Florida Keys, according to CNN.
The team also spotted areas where Megalosaurus and sauropod tracks intersected, which raised questions about possible predator-prey interactions or overlapping habitats.
“Scientists have known about and been studying Megalosaurus for longer than any other dinosaur on Earth, yet these discoveries prove there is still new evidence out there, waiting to be found,” Emma Nicholls of the Oxford Museum of Natural History said in the press release.
The new findings build on a 1997 discovery in the same area but go much further thanks to modern technology. While earlier trackways lacked detailed imaging, these new prints enable scientists to analyze dinosaur locomotion and social behaviors with unprecedented accuracy.
