The War over Peace
NEED TO KNOW
The War over Peace
SOUTH SUDAN
More than 30 top hotels recently filed a lawsuit against the government of South Sudan because it failed to settle bills worth $60 million that it accrued from hosting peace talks delegations years ago.
The problem is, South Sudan is broke.
It’s so broke that in December, the East African country was scheduled to hold an election, the first since it won independence from Sudan in 2011, but was forced to postpone it to 2026, partly because it has failed to execute a constitution or a census – but mostly it couldn’t pay for it.
That’s not surprising considering the young country is facing the worst economic crisis since independence, according to the International Rescue Committee. As a result, civil servants and state employees, including soldiers and teachers, haven’t been paid in a year.
And now, in spite of a peace agreement that mostly halted a civil war in 2018, some worry that the economic crisis will lead the country to again explode into conflict within itself when the peace deal expires in February.
“When you remove the glue, it can all break down,” Daniel Akech of the International Crisis Group told the Economist.
Two years after winning independence in 2011, civil war broke out after the president, Salva Kiir of the Dinka ethnic group, and the vice president, Riek Machar of the Nuer group, began feuding. About 400,000 people died in the conflict, more than 2.4 million people fled the country, and another 2.3 million were displaced internally.
Much of the fighting stopped after the peace agreement in 2018 which divided power between the two sides. Still, not all groups that eventually got involved in the conflict signed on to the agreement, which is why peace talks are continuing in fits and starts, the Associated Press reported.
Meanwhile, the situation in the country is dire: It’s facing one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, with about 80 percent of the population experiencing a “high level of food insecurity” in November, an increase of 7 percent over 2022, the World Bank reported. At the same time, the population faces devastating droughts and flooding, worsening the food security situation, ruining livelihoods, causing disease outbreaks, and contributing to displacement.
Alongside this, the country of 11 million is grappling with 800,000 refugees that crossed the border from Sudan after war erupted there in 2023.
The war in Sudan is a big reason why South Sudan is broke: It has cut off most cross-border trade and more critically, closed its main oil pipeline that carried two-thirds of South Sudan’s oil exports to the Red Sea coast. Oil exports make up as much as 98 percent of government revenue. As a result, the economy shrank by more than a quarter in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund, while inflation rose to 120 percent – among the highest rates in the world.
Now, to turn things around, Kiir’s transitional government says it wants to diversify its economy and capitalize on its mineral riches, and maybe even bypass Sudan by working with China to build an alternative pipeline to Djibouti via Ethiopia, Bloomberg noted.
None of this, however, will alleviate the economic crisis in the short term, analysts say, or the security crisis that is brewing.
Besides a rise in kidnapping and extortion by gangs and unpaid soldiers, an armed insurgency in the south threatens civilians and endangers the peace process, the Council on Foreign Relations wrote. There has also been a rise in violence stemming from community-based militias and civil defense groups, driven by border disputes and sectarianism, according to the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect.
Writing in the Conversation, South Sudan expert Steven C. Roach said the country won’t be able to get on track in its current trajectory and with its current leadership. For example, he believes the multiple delays in holding elections over the years are likely due to President Kiir’s fear of the consequences of losing power: He would likely be tried by a war crimes court due to be set up by the 2018 peace agreement.
He also detailed how Kiir has used his political and economic power to divide the opposition and repress civil society groups, journalists, and the opposition while having allowed corruption to run rampant to keep the elites on his side.
“Kiir steered South Sudan to independence,” he wrote. “However … he has to answer for sowing division and fostering violence and corruption that has diminished hope for long-term peace, democracy, and national unity.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Testing the Waters
ISRAEL/ WEST BANK & GAZA STRIP
A long-awaited ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect Sunday, halting more than 15 months of brutal conflict that devastated the Gaza Strip, and allowing for the initial release of some of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza and Palestinian prisoners in Israel, CBS News reported.
The truce – brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States – was finalized last week and approved by Israel’s cabinet Thursday after weeks of negotiations. The first phase, set to last six weeks, was to begin Sunday at 8:30 a.m. local time. But there was a delay after the Israeli military said Hamas failed to provide the names of the first hostages. Hamas blamed “technical field issues” for the delay and said it was still committed to the deal.
As a result, the ceasefire took effect at 11:15 a.m. instead. In the interim, rescue services in Gaza said 19 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes, the Los Angeles Times reported.
The ceasefire now dictates a prisoner exchange involving 33 hostages and about 1,900 Palestinian prisoners.
In the initial exchange, three Israeli women – Romi Gonen, Emily Damari, and Doron Steinbrecher – were freed Sunday and taken to Red Cross representatives in Gaza. After medical checks, they were reunited with their families in Israel, ending 471 days of captivity.
The three hostages were taken on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas and its allies launched an attack on southern Israel that killed about 1,200 people and saw around 250 others kidnapped – an assault that sparked the conflict.
Ninety Palestinian prisoners had been released, Al Jazeera reported. Palestinian families began returning to destroyed homes, while around 600 aid trucks entered Gaza on Sunday.
Israel’s response resulted in a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with more than 46,000 Palestinians killed to date, according to Gazan health officials.
The ceasefire deal will allow humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza, with aid trucks bringing much-needed relief to a population suffering from displacement, food shortages, and a lack of medical treatment, USA Today noted.
Under the agreement, Israeli troops will withdraw from populated areas of Gaza while maintaining a buffer zone near its borders.
Negotiations for the second phase are expected to begin in early February and are aimed at securing the release of additional hostages, including Israeli soldiers, and transition toward a permanent ceasefire.
A third phase will focus on Gaza’s reconstruction and the repatriation of deceased hostages.
Meanwhile, families of hostages expressed relief but remained anxious about the fate of the remaining captives. In Gaza, war-weary Palestinians celebrated the truce but remained doubtful about its sustainability.
The deal also triggered political turmoil in Israel, with the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, exiting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition over the weekend.
Ben Gvir condemned the ceasefire as a “surrender-to-terror deal” and accused Netanyahu of crossing ideological red lines. He vowed to vote independently on critical issues while continuing to support the government on other fronts, according to the Times of Israel.
Broken Promises
GUINEA
Guinea’s main opposition coalition withdrew its members from the country’s legislative body, accusing the ruling military junta of stalling the democratic transition after missing last month’s deadline to begin the process, a delay that sparked protests in the West African nation, the Associated Press reported.
The Forces Vives de Guinée coalition – which includes major opposition parties like the Rally of the Guinean People and the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea – accused the junta of holding the country “hostage.” It called its withdrawal from the National Transitional Council a protest at the government’s failure to meet its commitments.
The council is made up of 81 members tasked with drafting a new constitution and has served as Guinea’s legislative authority since the military, led by Col. Mamady Doumbouya, seized power in 2021.
In 2022, Doumbouya had agreed to launch a democratic transition by Dec. 31, 2024, but failed to meet the deadline. Instead, he said in his New Year’s message that the country would hold a constitutional referendum to begin the transition, without specifying a timeline.
Critics dismissed the announcement as a ploy to prolong military rule.
The coalition’s withdrawal comes two weeks after protests erupted in the capital Conakry.
The anti-junta demonstrations left one protester dead and led to the detention of hundreds, according to opposition figures.
The government has not commented on the unrest, Euronews noted.
The Forces Vives de Guinée coalition and others have been vocal about their dissatisfaction with the junta’s actions. These include the dissolution of more than 50 political parties last year, which the government claimed was necessary to “clean up the political chessboard.”
Human rights groups have also reported increasing crackdowns on independent media, such as frequent suspensions of social media networks and the arrests of journalists.
Judgment Day
IRAN
An armed assailant over the weekend killed two senior Iranian judges at Iran’s supreme court in Tehran who handled espionage, terrorism, and political cases, with authorities calling the incident a “planned assassination,” Al Jazeera reported.
On Saturday, judges Ali Razini and Mohammad Moghiseh were fatally shot by an unknown attacker who later took his own life, according to Iranian judicial officials. A bodyguard was also injured during the attack, which prompted the evacuation of the building.
Razini and Moghiseh held high-ranking judicial roles and were known in Iran as the “judges of death” because of their harsh verdicts against political prisoners, protesters, and regime opponents.
While the motive for the assassination was still unclear, judiciary spokesperson Asghar Jahangir told state television that “In the past year, the judiciary has undertaken extensive efforts to identify spies and terrorist groups, a move that has sparked anger and resentment among the enemies.”
State TV said these cases were related to individuals linked to Israel and the Iranian opposition supported by the United States, Reuters reported.
Razini, 71, was involved in trials related to the 1988 mass executions of political prisoners, according to the Telegraph. He survived a car bombing attempt in 1999 when he was serving as the head of Iran’s judiciary.
Meanwhile, Moghiseh, 68, was under Western sanctions for human rights abuses, including prosecuting protesters following the 2009 presidential elections. He had also served as the head of a court that handled dress code violations.
“He is notorious for sentencing scores of journalists and internet users to lengthy prison terms,” said the US Treasury Department about Moghiseh. “In one case alone, he sentenced eight Iranian Facebook users to a cumulative total of 127 years in prison for charges including anti-regime publicity and insults to religion.”
Investigators said the attacker had no known cases before the Supreme Court nor was a visitor to its branches.
DISCOVERIES
Forget Me
Erasing bad memories has long been a fantasy inspired by films such as “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.”
But now, fiction may become reality after scientists found a promising new approach to wiping such memories and replacing them with positive ones during sleep, according to a new study.
The international team of researchers asked 37 participants to associate random words with negative images, such as injuries or dangerous animals, before attempting to reprogram those associations and replace bad memories.
According to the study, participants viewed 48 nonsense words paired with a unique aversive image, followed by a night of sleep to consolidate those memories. The next evening, participants learned associations between half of the words and positive images.
During a second night of sleep, the recordings of the nonsense words were played during the participant’s non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep phase, which is known to be important for memory storage.
The researchers then monitored the participants the next day and for several days after with questionnaires, finding that the volunteers were less able to recall the negative memories that had been interfered with than those with the positive associations. The answers also suggested that positive memories were more likely to pop into the participants’ heads than negative ones for the words.
“Our findings open broad avenues for seeking to weaken aversive or traumatic memories,” wrote the researchers in their study.
Despite the promising results of this study, further research is still needed.
The team discussed some limitations in their study, writing that the tightly controlled lab-induced emotional experiences of viewing aversive and positive images may not mimic typical traumatic experiences. Finding positive associations within highly traumatic experiences could also be challenging for many people.
Nevertheless, previous studies have also shown the importance of the link between sleep and memory, as the brain saves memories by briefly replaying them during sleep. As a result, the researchers said the study is a starting point for learning how to dampen negative memories and could help those in therapy in the future.