No Way But Down
NEED TO KNOW
No Way But Down
UKRAINE
In what feels like another life, Anton Yaremchuk was a cinematographer making movies. But since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, he has raced from town to town in eastern Ukraine, helping people escape the ever-changing front lines of a war no one here wanted.
“Bringing people to safety is essential,” he said, convinced that it is important to “leave no one behind” as the logo reads on his high-vis jacket.
A few weeks ahead of the third anniversary of the invasion that began on Feb. 24, 2022, Yaremchuk and his colleagues at his small non-profit, BASE UA, were in Pokrovsk, in the east, trying to save some of its remaining residents. The Russian army was only about a mile from the town.
Over the past few weeks, the industrial city and key supply hub has been bombarded daily. Its streets are deserted. Its houses are boarded up. There is no gas, no water, no electricity, and no authorities in the town anymore. There is little sign of life except for a few elderly inhabitants who wait for rescue or refuse to leave because everything they have ever known and everything that has ever mattered to them is in this town, which is slowly being eviscerated.
“I have to stay,” one elderly woman told Yaremchuk, in a report by the BBC. “My son has died, and I need to be near his grave.”
“I don’t think he would want this,” Yaremchuk replied, trying to convince her to leave.
A world away, the powers that be, Russia and the United States, are deciding the fate of this bowed but unbroken country. After shocking the Ukrainians – and Europeans – by bluntly telling both parties that they would not be invited to the negotiating table to discuss peace, US President Donald Trump blamed the Ukrainians for starting this war and labeled the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a “dictator” while calling for elections.
The Ukrainian elections were due to be held in 2024 but were postponed because of the war, a decision even Zelenskyy’s opponents agreed with. Analysts say that holding a fair election is impossible with the Russians occupying 20 percent of the country and millions escaping abroad.
Over the past few weeks, US pressure on Ukraine has risen. Earlier this month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv. He had a contract in hand for the Ukrainians to sign, which would turn over the rights to their mineral wealth, a maneuver the Economist called, “shakedown diplomacy.” Zelenskyy declined to sign because of a lack of security guarantees, saying, “I cannot sell our state.”
Meanwhile, last week, Reuters reported that the US is refusing, for the first time, to co-sponsor a draft United Nations resolution that backs Kyiv’s territorial integrity and condemns Russian aggression. Instead, the US wants it replaced with a “toned-down” version that many believe is overly sympathetic to the Russians.
The Ukrainians, who have lost more than 12,500 civilians and an estimated 80,000 soldiers since early 2022, and have seen almost seven million more of their compatriots displaced outside of the country and another four million people displaced inside, are bewildered and scared by such US statements and actions, the abrupt about-face of their biggest ally. Many say they feel betrayed.
Some Ukrainians like Zelenskyy believe that Trump has fallen for Russian misinformation. Others suggest he’s playing hardball to get both sides to the table to end the war. Regardless, everyone agrees the rules of the game have changed in the past month.
A year ago, the Ukrainians thought they could hold out for a peace deal that would see Russia return their territory – including Crimea which Russia took in 2014. In exchange for peace, Russia wants the territory it has captured plus guarantees that Ukraine won’t join NATO and all Western sanctions lifted. It said it was acceptable that Ukraine joined the European Union.
But now, Ukraine’s bargaining power is weak. Its forces are struggling to hold back Russian advances in the east, where they are vastly outnumbered. Ukraine’s chances of retaking occupied Russian territory are slim even as they hold onto Russian territory – they captured a portion of the Kursk region in western Russia last summer.
The Russians are in a stronger position, but just barely. The war of attrition can’t be decisively won by Russia either, analysts say, but they could easily last another year or two in spite of experiencing tremendous losses, both in lives and in weapons – an estimated 200,000 soldiers fighting for Russia have been killed since 2022. Sanctions continue to bite and inflation is sky-high while exports are falling. Almost a million Russians have fled the country, to avoid conscription or a crackdown on dissent by the government.
In regions close to the Ukraine border such as Belgorod, or in Buryatia, one of the poorest parts of Siberia, the economy is booming because of the conflict even as the war is felt mainly in terms of losses – many of the soldiers fighting the war hail from these areas.
Still, most Russians overall say they don’t really feel the war much. Dmitry, a father of two in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, told RFE/RL that it’s been a “nuisance” in his life more than anything else.
The IT professional said he’s seen business revenue hurt by Western sanctions, prices for some goods like cars surge, and frets over how his son is exposed to the government’s “dangerous nationalistic propaganda” at school. But on the whole, life hasn’t changed that much since 2022, he says.
“Things are difficult because of sanctions as Russian software just isn’t as good as US technology,” he said.” But I have enough money to cover expenses – except for a new car, (they) are now very expensive (and increasingly Chinese).”
On the other side of the border, meanwhile, Ukrainians are tired. Tens of thousands of soldiers have deserted, and many are on trial for doing so. The economy is struggling. Its energy infrastructure, repeatedly hit by Russia, is unreliable now. And the graveyards continue to grow.
No one in Ukraine talks about victory anymore as they did a year ago. Some believe that they can’t give in to Russia or it would betray all those who died in this war. But others now say there has been too much death and destruction and it is time for it to stop.
“Of course, Ukraine would want to recapture all land it lost,” Joanna Hosa of the European Council on Foreign Relations told CNN. “However, after three years of this exhausting war, recapturing all land is nowhere in sight. With a heavy heart, Ukrainians are slowly coming to accept this.”
However, Ukrainians worry now that they may lose their country. That’s because no one here believes Russian President Vladimir Putin will stop at having only 20 percent of their territory.
“We need peace,” said a senior Ukrainian official. “(But) … a peace that doesn’t finish us off at the same time.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
South of the Border
MEXICO
Mexico is planning a series of constitutional reforms to better protect the country’s sovereignty, the government announced, after the United States designated Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, the Washington Post reported.
On Thursday, the US State Department upgraded the designation of eight Latin American criminal organizations, including two gangs – MS-13 and Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua – and six Mexican cartels to label them as terrorist organizations.
The designation establishes the cartels as responsible for a “campaign of violence and terror” throughout the Western Hemisphere and for flooding “the United States with deadly drugs, violent criminals and vicious gangs.”
The Mexican criminal organizations dominate the production and importation of fentanyl, a powerful opioid responsible for tens of thousands of deaths in the US each year.
The designation raised alarms among Mexico’s officials because it would allow the US authorities to issue special sanctions and launch military action on Mexican soil – similar to how Washington has dealt with other terrorist groups, such as Islamic State and al Qaeda, according to Newsweek.
Shortly after the designation announcement, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum proposed constitutional reforms, emphasizing that Mexico would not permit foreign involvement in investigations or prosecutions without the authorization or cooperation of Mexican authorities.
“This cannot be an opportunity for the United States to invade our sovereignty,” Sheinbaum insisted, adding that Mexico would collaborate on fighting cartels but would not accept “subordination.”
One planned reform includes prohibiting any “act from abroad that is harmful to the integrity, independence, and sovereignty of the Nation,” including coups and unauthorized foreign interventions in probes and prosecutions.
Another proposal calls for automatic pretrial detention and maximum penalties for anyone – whether a citizen or foreign national – involved in illegal arms trafficking, or for any foreigner who violates Mexico’s sovereignty.
Observers noted the constitutional reforms are likely to pass: Sheinbaum and her ruling Morena party control a majority in both chambers of the legislature.
Her predecessor, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, had already passed laws restricting foreign agents’ autonomy and mandating that Mexican authorities be informed of their activities.
Meanwhile, analysts cautioned that the recent US moves – the threat of tariffs and the designation – could damage Washington’s already tense relations with its southern neighbor.
Staying Local
BULGARIA
Thousands of protesters led by Bulgaria’s far-right Vazrazhdane (Revival) party clashed with police in Sofia over the weekend, attacking the local office of the European Commission in opposition to the Bulgarian government’s plan to adopt the euro currency in 2026, the Associated Press reported.
Demonstrators threw firecrackers, Molotov cocktails, and red paint at the building housing the European Union’s executive representatives, setting a door on fire before being pushed back by police.
Police said around 10 officers were injured and at least six people were arrested, Politico added.
The demonstration was organized by Revival leader Kostadin Kostadinov, who has called for a referendum on eurozone membership and threatened to block the work of parliament if the government proceeds without a public vote.
Protesters waved Bulgarian and party flags while chanting “No to the euro,” and “Yes to the Bulgarian lev.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the attack as “outrageous,” while Bulgaria’s new government, led by Rosen Zhelyazkov from the center-right GERB party, denounced the violence as “unacceptable” and an attack on the rule of law.
The government has made joining the eurozone a key priority, emphasizing that adopting the euro will strengthen Bulgaria’s integration with the bloc and benefit Bulgarians.
But the pro-Russian Revival – currently the third-largest party in parliament – has opposed the move, citing economic concerns such as a surge in prices, Reuters wrote.
While some economists question Bulgaria’s readiness for the euro, others – including the government – believe the adoption will attract more foreign investment and secure credit ratings upgrades that could cut its debt-financing costs.
Bulgaria, which joined the bloc in 2007, has faced political instability in recent years, with a series of parliamentary elections and shifting coalitions.
Eroding the Pillars
HONG KONG
Hong Kong’s oldest pro-democracy party will dissolve, its leaders announced this week, the latest blow to the city’s opposition groups as Beijing continues to tighten its grip on the semi-autonomous territory, the Guardian reported.
Lo Kin-hei, the chair of the Democratic Party, said Thursday the pro-democracy group will work on the legal and procedural steps needed to dissolve.
He and other officials cited the city’s deteriorating political environment, noting that developing democracy in Hong Kong has always been difficult, and “especially difficult in the past few years.”
The Democratic Party was founded in 1994, not long before the city’s British colonial overseers were to hand over control to China in 1997.
Following the handover, the party became the largest opposition force in Hong Kong’s legislature and played a leading role in peaceful protests, as well as pushing for the “one country, two systems” framework – a constitutional arrangement that promised the city a high degree of autonomy and rights protections.
The party saw its influence peak in 2019 after it won a majority of seats in local elections, riding on the wave of anti-government protests that year.
But its fortunes quickly declined after Beijing launched a crackdown against the demonstrations and implemented a sweeping national security law in 2020 on the city. China’s control was further cemented in 2021 after the city’s pro-Beijing government changed its electoral system to ensure that only “patriots” could take office – effectively barring the Democratic Party from participating in elections.
A number of former Democratic Party leaders and figures have been jailed under the national security law, including Albert Ho, a longtime democracy advocate who organized annual vigils to commemorate the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.
When asked if Beijing pressured the party to disband, Lo declined to comment and said he would not disclose details of internal discussions.
The dissolving of the Democratic Party follows that of Hong Kong’s second-largest opposition group, the Civic Party, in 2023.
City officials dismissed the significance of the party’s dissolution and have accused it of “constantly causing trouble inside and outside parliament,” the BBC added. Hong Kong government adviser Regina Ip claimed that the pro-democracy group had reached “a dead end” because it has been losing support in recent years.
The international community, including Western governments, has repeatedly criticized Beijing for dismantling Hong Kong’s democratic institutions.
US and European officials have condemned the national security law for eroding freedoms promised under the “one country, two systems” framework.
However, Beijing insists the measures are necessary to maintain order in the city.
DISCOVERIES
Two to Tango
Coral polyps and the algae living inside them, Zooxanthellae, work together to form the Great Barrier Reef. Algae provide energy to the corals through photosynthesis, spurring them to grow and build the reef.
However, corals are highly sensitive to rising ocean temperatures. During heatwaves, the stress caused by the heat disrupts the symbiotic relationship between coral polyps and algae, leading to coral bleaching, a phenomenon that involves corals expelling the algae. This causes the reefs to be more vulnerable because corals don’t exist in isolation.
In some crabs to the rescue, according to a new study.
Researchers found that crabs protect the coral by cleaning it of macroalgae (seaweed) or parasites that might add additional stress besides the heat. They may also provide nutrients to support the corals when going through difficult conditions.
To test whether observed mutualism – a relationship that benefits both species involved – between corals and crabs could help the corals survive, the researchers used flow-through tanks supplied with seawater drawn from a nearby reef flat to see how common coral-dwelling crabs Cyclodius ungulatus, affect corals, Acropora aspera, wounded by heat.
A marine heatwave coincidentally occurred at the start of the experiment, raising the temperature in the reef flat and, consequently, in the researchers’ tanks, contributing to tissue loss in the coral sample.
The extent of tissue loss depended on the experimental conditions tested, including exposure to potentially harmful macroalgae, physical wounding, and crabs.
Seaweeds carry microbes that can infect coral wounds, while physical wounding – simulating fish predation and tourism damage – triggered corals to release a thick mucus that attracted crabs.
Surprisingly, with crabs around, corals were more than 60 percent less likely to suffer significant tissue loss as the crabs fed on the mucus at the wound margins without harming healthy tissue.
While macroalgal contact increased tissue loss, crabs helped reduce it.
The researchers proposed that wounding might help increase coral resistance to heat stress by attracting mutualistic crabs, which could protect corals from different stressors.