A Country, a Business
NEED TO KNOW
A Country, a Business
TAJIKISTAN
Starting on March 2, Tajik voters will go to the polls to choose their new lawmakers. And although there are multiple candidates, no one believes the election will change anything in the country that has been ruled by authoritarian leader Emomali Rahmon for more than three decades.
Instead, the buzz these days here is about succession, specifically when the president’s son, Rustam Emomali, will succeed him. Many believe it could be this year.
The rumors of regime change have been flying around for years. But now, observers point to a recent uptick in the harassment of civil society groups and opposition politicians, and a purge of government officials – including members of the leader’s own family – and say that is Rahmon clearing the road for his son.
“The vast extent of the personnel moves has political tea-leaf readers in Dushanbe thinking that Rahmon is clearing the way for his son to assume the leadership of the country, removing potential opponents to the dynastic transition, and installing more pliable figures in their place,” Eurasianet noted.
Since independence in 1991, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan has never held a free and fair democratic election. Anyone perceived to be a threat to the leadership, including opposition politicians and journalists, has been sidelined, persecuted or jailed. And since rising to the top job in 1992, Rahmon has expanded his hold on the country, extending his presidential term by amending the constitution: In 2016, the Tajik parliament amended the constitution to formally give Rahmon the title “Leader of the Nation” and the right to run for president as often as he likes. He won his fifth term of seven years in 2020.
As a result, Rahmon is now Central Asia’s last true Soviet dictator, say observers, outlasting his counterparts in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. And now Tajikistan is the last of the so-called “Stans” to undertake a leadership transition.
And to do so, the government has been going after friends and foes alike, say analysts.
For example, on Feb. 5, a court in the capital Dushanbe, in a closed-door trial, sentenced multiple officials for organizing a “coup d’état.” Those accused included the leadership of the opposition Social Democratic Party, as well as former lawmakers and government officials such as an ex-foreign minister and a previous chairman of the Supreme Council (parliament). They were found guilty of crimes against humanity and sentenced to prison terms ranging from 18 to 27 years.
All the defendants denied the charges. They are mostly in their 60s and 70s, and most of them have spent their lives serving the state as loyalists of the regime, noted the Diplomat, adding that “the case seems strange.”
Even odder, said observers, was that the government was targeting politicians who had long supported Rahmon’s government. “Indeed, some of those arrested and detained in 2024 are supporters of the government, and if they were critical, it was very mild,” Hugh Williamson of Human Rights Watch said in an interview with RFE/RL’s Tajik service.
But others say the implications are clear. “It’s hard to imagine … that the ‘coup’ has no connection to the regime’s preparations for the transition of power,” wrote Carnegie Politika.
Still, it has been clear that Rahmon has been positioning his son as the country’s new leader. For example, after he was appointed as mayor of Dushanbe, the Tajik constitution was amended in 2018 to lower the age of eligibility for the presidency to 30 to accommodate Rahmon’s son’s age, who was then just 31.
Then, in 2020, he was elected to chair the upper house of the legislature. If Rahmon died tomorrow, under the constitution, Rustam would become president.
Now, Rustam is building his own team for this transition, say observers.
To date, there aren’t many other clear successors. That’s partly because the president’s family, which includes seven daughters and two sons, has the country locked up. His eldest daughter, Ozoda, is chief of staff, and her husband is number two in the central bank, while his other daughters and their spouses hold key positions in the government or in various sectors of the economy, such as transportation, media, banking, pharmaceuticals, and mining.
“Many countries are led by an authoritarian elite … But few are as dominated by a single ruling family as Tajikistan,” wrote the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP). “Anything of value in the country – from mining licenses to driving schools and even to medicinal plants – is quickly snapped up by President Emomali Rahmon and his relatives.”
Still, observers say the president has been reshuffling government agencies while also firing or reassigning family members, suggesting that not all are on board with his choice of successor.
That’s because a new president could lessen the influence and the funds the current family members – and regional elites – have access to.
Regional analyst Galiya Ibragimova says it’s the president’s own legacy of authoritarianism, nepotism, and greed that is threatening his succession.
“By directing all the streams of income and control of the country to his own relatives, Rahmon has painted himself into a corner,” she wrote. “Infighting over the succession and growing frustration in the regions could shatter the stability that the president has been building for so many years. Power transitions rarely go to plan in Central Asia, and Tajikistan may be no exception.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
In the Sights
THAILAND
Thailand deported dozens of Uyghur refugees it had kept in detention for more than a decade to China this week, despite widespread warnings from human rights groups about the risks the returnees faced, including torture and death, the BBC reported.
Thai media reported trucks with plastic-covered windows leaving Bangkok’s main immigration center in the early hours of Thursday morning. The Thai and Chinese governments confirmed the transfer of refugees Thursday.
Data shows that 43 Uyghurs were in Thai detention centers, though 40 were confirmed as having been deported. China declined to confirm that the deportees were Uyghurs but said they would be looked after properly.
UN human rights chief, Volker Türk, described the deportation as “a clear violation of international human rights laws and standards.”
Thai Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said that the treatment and deportation of the Uyghur asylum seekers followed Thai and international laws and that China will take care of them because “they are their people,” Reuters reported.
Sources told the BBC that the deportations followed a meeting between the new Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The Uyghurs, a Turkic ethnic group who are mainly Muslims, are native to China’s Xinjiang region. After years of tension with Beijing over alleged discrimination and the suppression of their cultural identity, the Chinese government initiated a campaign of persecution against the minority group, labeling them jihadists. Some Western governments, however, have labeled the Chinese crackdown on the group a genocide.
In 2014, more than 300 Uyghurs escaping from China were detained in Thailand. Some were sent to China against their will, some were sent to Turkey, and some remained in Thai immigration centers seeking asylum, the Associated Press reported.
For more than a decade, Thailand has found itself caught in a diplomatic dilemma over the asylum seekers, balancing its relationship with China, its primary trading partner, and the United States, its traditional military ally.
Western governments, including the US, have consistently raised concerns about Thailand’s deportation of the Uyghurs, warning that they could face persecution, imprisonment, or even death upon returning to China.
To avoid backlash, Thailand had avoided deporting any Uyghurs in the past decade – until now.
No Free Passes
FRANCE
France will review and possibly change a decades-old agreement that facilitates Algerian immigration to the country unless Algeria agrees to take back its citizens facing deportation, a move that exacerbates tensions between the two countries following a deadly knife attack by an Algerian national over the weekend, Reuters reported.
On Wednesday, French Prime Minister François Bayrou said Algeria’s refusal to accept the individuals deported constitutes “a direct attack on the agreements we have with the Algerian authorities and we will not accept it.”
He said the government would take four to six weeks to assess Algeria’s compliance with the 1968 pact and present a substantial list of individuals it expects Algeria to take back. If Algeria refuses, France will consider restricting the advantages granted under the agreement.
Under that agreement between France and its former colony, Algerians enjoy a series of exceptions to French immigration laws that make it easier for them to settle in France.
In 2023, Algerians accounted for 12.2 percent of immigrants in France.
The government’s announcements came days after an Algerian citizen killed one person and injured three others in a stabbing spree in the eastern city of Mulhouse.
The attack added to already heated debates about immigration in France, with officials alleging that Paris had attempted to repatriate the attacker 14 times without success.
French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau has repeatedly called for a revision of the agreement, saying that it hampers efforts to deport Algerians under the “OQTF” (obligation to leave French territory) regime.
In response, Algeria accused France of succumbing to “far-right orders” and warned of “immeasurable consequences” for bilateral relations, Politico wrote.
The Algerian Foreign Affairs Ministry expressed “surprise and astonishment” over new travel restrictions France placed on certain Algerian officials, adding that Algiers had not been informed in advance.
Relations between Paris and Algiers have worsened in recent months, exacerbated by Algeria’s failure to crack down on Algerian influencers accused of attempting to incite violence in France, and France’s recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.
The move angered Algeria, which supports the Polisario Front that is seeking an independent state there.
‘Total Paralysis’
GUINEA-BISSAU
Guinea Bissau’s opposition called for nationwide strikes Thursday amid a dispute over the expiration of the presidential term of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, Agence France-Presse reported.
Embaló was sworn in for a five-year term on Feb. 27, 2020, following a disputed election. The opposition claims that his term was expected to end Thursday, but the country’s supreme court previously ruled that it ends on Sept. 4.
Tensions flared in the West African country earlier this week after Embaló announced that the country’s presidential and parliamentary elections would be postponed to November, according to Africanews.
On Wednesday, the coalition of opposition parties called for “a total paralysis” of the country to protest the vote delay and Embaló’s term extension. The planned strikes were announced despite a ban on gatherings by the interior ministry.
Security forces were deployed at key points across the capital Bissau on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a high-level mission by the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc met leaders of political parties earlier this week to restart political dialogue.
Guinea-Bissau has been mired in political turmoil since December 2023, when Embaló dissolved the opposition-controlled legislature three days after armed clashes that he described as an attempted coup. He initially scheduled early parliamentary elections for November 2024 before postponing them indefinitely, citing logistical and financial concerns.
Amid the ongoing political crisis, Embaló met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Wednesday, a visit that observers said underscored Russia’s broader efforts to expand its economic and security ties in West and Central Africa, according to Business Insider Africa.
DISCOVERIES
Predatory Deities
Long before lions roamed Africa, another fearsome predator ruled the land.
A stunning fossil found in Egypt’s Fayum Depression unveiled an apex carnivore from 30 million years ago that was roughly the size of a leopard, according to a new study.
“For days, the team meticulously excavated layers of rock dating back around 30 million years,” said lead author and paleontologist Shorouq Al-Ashqar in a statement. “Just as we were about to conclude our work, a team member spotted something remarkable – a set of large teeth sticking out of the ground. His excited shout brought the team together, marking the beginning of an extraordinary discovery: a nearly complete skull of an ancient apex carnivore, a dream for any vertebrate paleontologist.”
Dubbing the creature Bastetodon syrtos, Al-Ashqar and her colleague explained that it belonged to a long-extinct group of super-hunters called hyaenodonts that predated modern carnivores like lions, hyenas, and wolves.
With powerful jaws and sharp teeth, the team explained that the predator sat at the top of the food chain and was hypercarnivore – meaning that it relied on meat for at least 70 percent of its diet.
Its name pays tribute to Bastet, the lioness-headed Egyptian goddess of protection – though this particular beast likely offered no protection to its unfortunate prey, noted Science Alert.
The discovery in the Fayum Depression – a fossil-rich region in northern Egypt that was once a lush forest teeming with life – provides a window into Africa’s ancient ecosystems.
“The Fayum is one of the most important fossil areas in Africa,” co-author Matt Borths said in the same statement. “Without it, we would know very little about the origins of African ecosystems and the evolution of African mammals like elephants, primates, and hyaenodonts.”
Beyond introducing a new species, the findings also helped reevaluate fossils first unearthed more than 120 years ago.
The team identified a new genus, Sekhmetops, named after Sekhmet, the Egyptian lion-headed goddess of war. In 1904, these fossils were mistakenly classified alongside European hyaenodonts.
The new analysis shows that Sekhmetops and Bastetodon originated in Africa before spreading across the Northern Hemisphere.
However, as Earth’s climate shifted and new predators arrived in Africa, the hyaenodonts declined.
“The discovery of Bastetodon is a significant achievement in understanding the diversity and evolution of hyaenodonts and their global distribution,” noted Al-Ashqar. “We are eager to continue our research to unravel the intricate relationships between these ancient predators and their environments over time and across continents.”