War and Peace: Kurdish Ceasefire Could Change the Middle East
NEED TO KNOW
War and Peace: Kurdish Ceasefire Could Change the Middle East
TURKEY
It was a remarkable moment for many in Turkey and elsewhere: Last month, Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), called on his force to lay down their arms after 40 years of conflict.
A few days later, the PKK declared a ceasefire in its war with Turkey.
Now, if the momentum toward a peace deal with the PKK holds, it could change not only the political dynamics within Turkey but also in the region, analysts said.
“This is a historic call,” Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution, told the New York Times, referring to Öcalan’s appeal.
“(The proposal) has a lot to do with the geopolitical pressures building up in Turkey’s neighborhood, creating a sense of insecurity for both Turks and Kurds,” she added. “The chaotic start of the Trump administration and the uncertainty about Syria’s future also seem to have made it evident to Ankara that it needs to consolidate on the home front – there is no better way to do it than a deal with Kurds.”
For the Kurds in Turkey and elsewhere, it could bring an end to decades of repression and violence by the Turkish government and a war that has killed about 40,000 people. It also brings a chance at political and social inclusion, a recognition of their identity, more self-rule and the release of Kurdish political prisoners.
For Syria, it could bring the stability it needs to rebuild the country by promoting reconciliation between the Syrian Kurds, who hold one-third of the country and its oil fields, and the new Syrian government, at a fragile point in the country’s transition.
For Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, it could bring the Kurdish political support he needs to change the constitution to be able to stay in power for another presidential term.
And for Turkey overall, it could bring peace at home and with the Kurdish groups that are spread across Iraq, Iran and Syria, freeing it from engaging its military in those areas, and allowing it to focus on its expansionist goals in the region.
“If the terrorist organization evaluates this call, lays down its arms and gathers to dissolve itself, Turkey will be freed from its shackles,” said Efkan Ala, deputy chairman of Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party.
Öcalan, 75, has been in prison since 1999, after being convicted of treason. Even so, he has continued to wield significant influence over the PKK, which was designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the US and the European Union. The PKK has led an insurgency in southeast Turkey since 1984. Previous peace efforts have ended with failure – most recently a decade ago.
Peace efforts this time began in October. Erdoğan wants to win the support of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), part of the opposition, to change the constitution to allow Erdoğan to have another term. He has been in power since 2003.
The DEM party has long pressed for greater democracy in Turkey, rights for the country’s Kurdish population and to improve conditions for Öcalan.
In spite of the latest peace efforts, Erdoğan’s government has widened a crackdown on the opposition, arresting journalists and politicians and removing at least eight municipal officials from areas won by the DEM party in elections last year including a mayor.
Analysts say that was an attempt to increase pressure on the Kurds to make a peace deal. That, in turn, helps Turkey with its goals for Syria.
Turkey has been involved in Syria for years, bankrolling the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group that has led the country since the ouster of Bashar Assad in December. Since the new Syrian government came to power, Turkish officials have been involved with the transition, seeing it as a chance to expand their influence over a key country in the region.
But the Kurds in Syria have been a stumbling block. The US allied with the Kurds’ Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – based in the north of the country – years ago to fight Islamic State. However, Turkey over the past year has attacked and forced their retreat before occupying parts of their territory. Now Turkey wants the Syrian Kurds’ militias, including the SDF and the People’s Protection Units (YPG) to disarm.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa wants to integrate these units into Syria’s new army but the Syrian Kurds have pushed for autonomy, angering al-Sharaa. Recently, he held a “national dialogue” on the future of the country with all minority groups represented at the conference – except the Kurds.
The US, meanwhile, has wanted to protect its allies in the SDF to allow them to continue to fight the remnants of Islamic State.
The peace, Turkey hopes, will neutralize the Kurds in Syria. Already the leader of the SDF Mazloum Abdi said his group would disarm: “This historic announcement is an opportunity to build peace and a key to opening correct and constructive relations in the region.”
Meanwhile, Turkey hopes the peace will undercut Israel’s outreach to the Syrian Kurds and unify Turkey and Erdoğan’s hold over Syria. At the same time, Turkey hopes its push for peace will sideline the elements of the PKK in Iraq – Turkey already has a good relationship with the Kurdish leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan.
The biggest obstacle to this goal – and Turkey’s expansion over Kurdish regions outside of its borders – was the United States. The new peace would take care of that.
Although it’s early in the peace process, after Öcalan call, Kurds across Turkey and Syria took to the streets in celebration, with many shocked because they never expected to see such a day.
“This is the (turning) point of history and it is a positive one,” Sırrı Süreyya Önder of the (DEM) party told the Guardian. “We are here with a compass to find a possible route out of these dark, chaotic days.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
The Battles and the War: South Korea’s Embattled President Wins Reprieve
SOUTH KOREA
South Korea’s impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol, was released from prison over the weekend after a court voided his arrest warrant, a move that comes as the constitutional court deliberates on formally removing him from office, the Guardian reported.
In January, Yoon was indicted on charges of rebellion after imposing martial law on Dec. 3, a move that plunged the country into political turmoil and led to his impeachment by the opposition-controlled parliament in mid-December.
But on Friday, the Seoul Central District Court accepted Yoon’s request to be released from prison, citing legal concerns over the validity of the investigation and procedural issues regarding his detention.
Prosecutors said they would not appeal his release, which would allow Yoon to prepare for his criminal and impeachment trials outside of prison.
Yoon’s lawyers called the court’s decision “the beginning of a journey to restore rule of law,” while the former president thanked the judiciary for its “courage in correcting illegality.”
The opposition Democratic Party denounced the court ruling, accusing prosecutors of “throwing the country and people into crisis” and calling for Yoon’s swift removal. The party has argued that Yoon’s martial law decree constituted an attempted coup.
Meanwhile, investigators say that Yoon’s martial-law decree amounted to rebellion, which, under South Korean law, could mean the death penalty. While presidents have legal immunity from most prosecutions, that immunity does not apply to serious crimes, such as rebellion and treason.
Yoon maintains that his martial law order was intended to expose what he described as “anti-state forces” within the legislature, which had blocked his policies and impeached a number of officials.
Legal analysts said that while Friday’s ruling did not vindicate Yoon, it cast doubt on the legitimacy of the indictment, Al Jazeera noted.
Mass protests erupted in Seoul following his release Saturday, with about 55,000 people marching in support of Yoon and 32,500 demonstrating against him near the constitutional court.
Public opinion remains sharply divided: A Gallup Korea poll on Friday found that 60 percent of respondents support removing Yoon from office, while 35 percent oppose it.
The country’s top court is now deliberating whether to permanently remove him from office, which would trigger a presidential election within 60 days.
Syrian Transition Hits Sectarian Roadblocks
SYRIA
More than 1,000 people died in Syria in two days of clashes between government security forces and loyalists of ousted President Bashar Assad, in one of the deadliest episodes of violence since Syria’s civil war began 14 years ago, the Associated Press reported.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that at least 745 civilians, 125 government security personnel, and 148 pro-Assad militants had been killed, with entire villages looted and burned.
The violence erupted Thursday when Assad loyalists ambushed security forces in the western province of Latakia, a coastal region that had been a stronghold of the former government. The unrest escalated into revenge killings targeting the Alawite minority by Sunni militias aligned with Syria’s new interim authorities who ousted Assad in December.
Armed factions stormed Alawite-majority areas, executing residents, torching homes, and looting businesses, noted Financial Times. Electricity and water were cut off in large areas, forcing thousands to flee to the mountains or seek refuge at the Russian airbase in Hmeimim, according to Lebanese officials.
The Alawite community, which comprises roughly 12 percent of Syria’s population, has long been associated with Assad’s rule: Alawite officers dominated the upper ranks of the military and intelligence services during his presidency, as well as made up much of the administration.
Many Sunnis, the majority group in Syria, view Alawites as complicit in the brutal repression that marked the more than five decades of rule by the Assads, including massacres, arbitrary detentions, torture, and bombings of civilian areas during the country’s civil war.
Although the interim government has promised accountability rather than collective punishment, residents and rights groups warned the violence amounts to retribution for decades of Alawite dominance under Assad.
Syria’s interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who led the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that helped bring down Assad, called for calm, saying that the violence was among the “expected challenges” of the transition.
Al-Sharaa urged for national unity and pledged that those responsible for atrocities would be held accountable.
While the interim leader has sought international legitimacy by distancing himself from his past ties to al Qaeda, human rights groups and foreign governments have expressed skepticism at his efforts.
Observers noted that many of the armed groups responsible for the violence are loosely affiliated with the interim government and operate with little oversight. However, Alawite militias and other groups that have formed during the interim period have been accused of violence against Sunnis.
Romania Arrests Six for Pro-Russian Coup
ROMANIA
Romanian authorities arrested six people, including a 101-year-old retired general, on charges of treason for allegedly conspiring to overthrow the government in a Russian-backed plot aimed at pulling Romania out of NATO, Politico reported.
On Thursday, the country’s organized crime investigation agency, DIICOT, announced the arrests, saying the six individuals were members of an organization called the “Vlad Țepeș Command” – named after the historical Vlad Țepeș, better known as Vlad the Impaler or Dracula.
The group operated under a military-style hierarchy, with the 101-year-old Radu Theodoru serving as the organization’s leader, according to Newsweek.
The agency said the alleged plotters sought to dismantle Romania’s existing political system, including changing Romania’s constitution, renaming the country, and changing its flag and anthem.
They also planned to form a ruling council made up of “a Council of the Wise, a Council of Elders, and Local Committees of the Ancestors.”
Authorities said the group had repeated contact with Russian intelligence agents, including two individuals stationed at the Russian Embassy in Bucharest who were expelled from the country last week.
The Romanian Intelligence Service (SRI) said the diplomats engaged in intelligence-gathering activities in strategic areas and assisted the group’s unconstitutional efforts.
Russian officials denied involvement, calling Romania’s accusations “unjustified and unfriendly” and warned of retaliatory measures.
The arrests come amid heightened concerns over Russian influence in Romania following the controversial annulment of the first round of the November presidential election, which gave a shock victory to an obscure pro-Russian candidate, Călin Georgescu.
Georgescu, who has voiced skepticism of NATO and support for Moscow, is under investigation for potential election interference linked to Russian operations. He was arrested and charged last week with attempting to overthrow the constitutional order, as well as membership of a neo-fascist organization.
On Sunday, clashes erupted between his supporters and police in the capital, Bucharest, after the Central Electoral Bureau (BEC) barred him from running in May’s presidential election rerun, the BBC wrote.
DISCOVERIES
Ancient Polluters
Humans have polluted the environment for thousands of years: Now, a new study shows that contamination involving lead is even older than initially thought.
Researchers analyzed how and when early human activities impacted ecosystems by studying 14 sediment cores collected from the Aegean Sea floor and the surrounding coastline between 2001 and 2021.
The analysis of one core from a peat bog provided the earliest evidence of environmental lead pollution – researchers dated it to 5,200 years ago, about 1,200 years earlier than they thought, based on the evidence they collected.
Because lead was released during the production of silver, finding traces of this metal in the environment not only provides insights into how human activities affected ecosystems but is also an indicator of socioeconomic change.
Besides lead, the sample analyzed contained pollen, which allowed for reconstructing vegetation development in the area and understanding how ancient civilizations used land.
According to the researchers, the data on lead contamination and vegetation development show when societies transitioned from agricultural to monetary and how this change impacted the environment.
The composition of the pollen spectra shows that about 2,150 years ago, there was a rise in lead concentrations accompanied by intense deforestation and increasing agricultural use.
Lead contamination in sediment from the sea floor emerged around that same time and is considered the earliest worldwide record of human-caused lead pollution in the ocean, said the researchers.
“The changes coincide with the conquest of Hellenistic Greece by the Romans, who subsequently claimed for themselves the region’s wealth of resources,” said Heidelberg archeologist Joseph Maran in a statement.
The Romans significantly increased the mining of gold, silver, and other metals, with ore extraction and smelting also requiring wood, researchers added.