Miracle, Derailed? Ivory Coast’s Success Threatened By Election Gambit
NEED TO KNOW
Miracle, Derailed? Ivory Coast’s Success Threatened By Election Gambit
IVORY COAST
The small, West African country of Ivory Coast experienced an economic “miracle” from the 1950s until the 1980s. Now, it seems as if it is on the verge of a second one.
Devastated by two civil wars, from 2002 to 2007 and from 2010 to 11, which combined killed thousands, it has since become West Africa’s economic success story with growth rates hovering around 7 percent in the past decade and one of the highest GDP per capita rates in the region.
With much of sub-Saharan Africa grappling with coups, wars, jihadist insurgencies, and economic stagnation, Ivory Coast, a country of 32 million people known for cocoa exports – it is the world’s largest producer – is a rare exception on the continent, say analysts.
Still, while the first “Ivorian miracle” was driven by cocoa, part of the country’s recent success is attributed to diversification, an ability to attract investment over the past decade, and the smart economic policy of the government of Alassane Ouattara, a former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund, who has been president since 2010, and the relative political stability that followed over the next decade.
That, however, is now being threatened in the runup to elections later this year.
Ouattara, 83, won his third term in 2020, despite a constitutional limit of two terms, in an election that was boycotted by the opposition and led to unrest. Now he has signaled that he may run again, Reuters reported.
Meanwhile, in April, a court banned Tidjane Thiam, the presidential candidate for the leading opposition party, Democratic Party of Ivory Coast–African Democratic Rally (PDCI), from running in the election, saying he wasn’t an Ivorian citizen. Thiam became a French citizen in 1987 but gave it up in March. The decision is not open to appeal.
“While we had the right to hope for inclusive, transparent, and peaceful elections, it is clear that the unjustified removal of the PDCI candidate is part of the logic of eliminating the leaders of the main opposition parties to ensure tailor-made elections and a certain victory,” he said, before stepping down as head of his party recently.
Protests have already broken out, led by the opposition.
Meanwhile, former President Laurent Gbagbo announced he would run in this fall’s elections, before the court also banned his candidacy along with those of former minister Charles Blé Goudé and former Prime Minister Guillaume Soro.
The exclusion of Blé Goudé and Gbagbo has stoked uproar among their political supporters, Africanews wrote.
In other countries, this situation might lead to a cycle of protests and crackdowns by the government before melting away, say analysts. But Ivory Coast has a history of politics turning bloody. For example, the first civil war broke out after the presidential election in 2000 when transitional military government leader Robert Guéï refused to step down after losing to Gbagbo. Then, in 2010, the country’s second civil war broke out after Laurent Gbagbo refused to concede the election to Ouattara.
Now that cycle could continue and threaten the economic ‘miracle’ on the horizon.
The Council on Foreign Relations said Ouattara is playing an old game, one where he pretends to hesitate to run again, but where his party pushes for his candidacy, leading to a situation in which the “father of the nation” reluctantly accepts to carry on for the good of the country. The think tank called it “a dangerous gambit.”
“To say that President Ouattara’s shillyshallying is the last thing that Côte d’Ivoire needs is an understatement,” it wrote. “In the first place, the fact that previous electoral contests have been dogged by violence means that the country has little margin for error and can nary afford a potentially combustible situation … It is regrettable that Ouattara, (who was) the clear winner (of the 2010 elections but one who) Gbagbo was reluctant to hand over (power) to, has learned very little from the tragic episode.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Centrist Wins Romania’s High-Stakes Presidential Runoff
ROMANIA
Centrist candidate Nicuşor Dan won Romania’s presidential runoff, defeating his far-right rival in a closely watched race that raised questions about the country’s political trajectory as a member of both NATO and the European Union, the Guardian reported Monday.
Results released Monday showed Dan securing nearly 54 percent of the vote, while his opponent, George Simion, won about 46 percent. Voter turnout reached nearly 65 percent – the highest for a Romanian election in 25 years.
Dan, the mayor of Bucharest since 2020, thanked his supporters, calling the result “a victory of thousands and thousands of people who … believe that Romania can change in the right direction.”
A vocal supporter of EU and NATO membership, Dan ran on a platform of fighting corruption, maintaining support for Ukraine, and keeping Romania aligned with the West.
In contrast, Simion – a pro-Kremlin, Eurosceptic politician – vowed to end military aid to Ukraine and shake up Romania’s political establishment, Al Jazeera noted.
Simion briefly declared himself president before conceding to Dan. He later told supporters he would “continue the fight for freedom and our great values along with other patriots, sovereigntists, and conservatives all over the world.”
The result surprised many after Simion led the first round of elections earlier this month, prompting the collapse of Romania’s ruling coalition.
Political analysts said the runoff turnout and result underscored the importance of the vote: While many voters had grown disillusioned with mainstream parties, a significant bloc remained firmly pro-European and anti-Russian.
The May election, meanwhile, followed one in November, in which far-right candidate Călin Georgescu won a shock victory in the first round. Romania’s constitutional court invalidated the results afterward amid evidence of campaign finance violations and Russian interference.
Georgescu was banned from reentering the race and is now under investigation on multiple charges, including failing to report his campaign spending.
Elsewhere in Europe, Poland on Sunday also held a presidential election, the Associated Press wrote.
Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski led the race, followed closely by conservative historian Karol Nawrocki. They will compete in a June 1 runoff.
While Trzaskowski – a pro-EU ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk – promised to lower political tensions and back judicial reforms, Nawrocki has promised to cut aid to Ukraine.
France to Export Drug Traffickers, Extremists to Guiana
FRANCE
France said it will build a high-security prison in its overseas territory of French Guiana in South America to hold drug traffickers and radical Islamists currently serving sentences in France, the BBC reported.
The prison is to be built in the Amazon rainforest, in the northwestern region of Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni, near the border with Suriname. French Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin visited the area over the weekend, according to France 24.
In an interview with the French newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche, Darmanin said that the project, which is costing over $450 million and should open by 2029, will specifically target organized crime “at all levels” of the drug supply chain. He added that the prison would be run with a “strict” regime to “incapacitate the most dangerous drug traffickers.”
French officials say the goal of the prison is to stop individuals early on in the drug trade, as well as serve as a definitive tool for dismantling the leadership of the drug trafficking organizations in mainland France.
At least 20 percent of the cocaine in the French mainland comes from Guiana. French officials hope the new prison, with its deep isolation, will make it more difficult for drug lords to connect with their criminal networks because it will allow for more effective signal jamming.
The prison will be able to hold up to 500 prisoners and feature an ultra-secure section for 60 dangerous inmates. It will also include an area for Islamists and prisoners considered dangerous to state security.
Some in Guiana criticized the project, saying that France is shipping them criminals too dangerous to remain in France, as if French Guiana were “France’s ‘rubbish’ bin.” Local lawmakers, meanwhile, were taken aback by the proposal, saying they were not informed in advance.
However, Darmanin countered that the new prison will hold local offenders, too, as there are an “enormous number” of murderers and drug traffickers in French Guiana.
The new prison will be France’s third high-security prison – the other two are located in mainland France – and follows a series of recent attacks linked to criminal gangs who attacked prisons and staff across France.
Russia Bans Amnesty International as an “Undesirable”
RUSSIA
Russia labeled Amnesty International an “undesirable organization,” in effect outlawing it and making it punishable under Russian law to have any association with the prominent global human rights group, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
The group “is the center of preparation of global Russophobic projects,” said Russia’s prosecutor-general in a statement Monday, adding that the country decided to ban the organization because of its so-called advocacy on behalf of Ukraine, Reuters wrote.
The prosecutor added that Amnesty is justifying “the crimes of Ukrainian neo-Nazis,” in line with previous Russian claims that Ukraine is governed by neo-Nazi groups, a pretext often used by Moscow to justify its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Amnesty International, an organization founded in 1961 that campaigns for human rights across the world, did not comment on the ban.
Russia adopted the “undesirable organization” law in 2015 to ban organizations that receive funding from foreign sources, saying those organizations are a threat to national security.
Russian citizens risk up to five years in prison for engaging with an “undesirable organization” or for aiding in its financing within Russia.
Analysts, however, say that designation is a pretense to silence dissent: Dozens of media outlets – including RFE/RL – and organizations involved in political, cultural, and educational activities, support for democratic institutions, and even religious organizations have been recently given that designation.
DISCOVERIES
Tiny Earthquakes
Scientists have long known that the volcano underneath Yellowstone is alive and well.
Until a recent study, however, they did not know that the top of the area’s magma reservoir sits about two miles below Yellowstone’s surface, where rock makes space for magma to bubble and flow, creating a magma cap.
“For decades, we’ve known there’s magma beneath Yellowstone, but the exact depth and structure of its upper boundary has been a big question,” said Brandon Schmandt, a co-author of the study, in a statement. “What we’ve found is that this reservoir hasn’t shut down – it’s been sitting there for a couple of million years, but it’s still dynamic.”
Yellowstone originated from a volcanic eruption about 631,000 years ago, which created the Yellowstone caldera, a volcanic depression, explained the National Park Service. Since then, there have been about 80 smaller eruptions.
It was just such a smaller eruption, consisting of “tiny earthquakes” that researchers tried to replicate to see what was under the surface.
They worked during the night in the northeast Yellowstone caldera in a spot parallel to one of the park’s rivers. They generated the “tiny earthquakes” using a 53,000-pound truck that created seismic vibrations. These waves bounced off many layers below Yellowstone’s surface and were picked up by sensors. Geoscientists then collected data and used seismic imaging and computer models to complete their research.
They say there is no danger of an eruption anytime soon as the magma cap serves as a seal over the pressure and heat below, while steady gas emissions prevent buildup.
“Although we detected a volatile-rich layer, its bubble and melt contents are below the levels typically associated with imminent eruption,” Schmandt said. “Instead, it looks like the system is efficiently venting gas through cracks and channels between mineral crystals, which makes sense to me given Yellowstone’s abundant hydrothermal features emitting magmatic gases.”
Schmandt likened the system to “steady breathing” with bubbles rising and releasing through the porous rock – a natural pressure-release valve that lowers eruption risk.
When studying volcanoes, it is important to determine if the bubbles are accumulating, if the gas is easily escaping, and what the magma reservoir looks like to assess how likely an eruption is.
A different study earlier in the year found that the magma will remain active, even if it is unlikely for it to erupt again, given its location and segregation. The new study corroborates this finding.
By identifying this sharp, volatile-rich cap beneath Yellowstone, Schmandt says the team has established a new benchmark for monitoring the volcano’s activity. Future research could attempt to detect any shifts in melt content or gas accumulation that may serve as early warning signs of unrest.
Beyond Yellowstone, the study offers broader insights into onshore subsurface imaging with potential applications not only for volcano monitoring but also for carbon storage, energy exploration, and hazard assessment.
“Being able to image what’s happening underground is important for everything from geothermal energy to storing carbon dioxide,” Schmandt said. “This work shows that with creativity and perseverance, we can see through complicated data and reveal what’s happening beneath our feet.”