As Elections Approach and Regional Tensions Rise, Burundi Chooses the Status Quo
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As Elections Approach and Regional Tensions Rise, Burundi Chooses the Status Quo
BURUNDI
Burundi officially kicked off its 2025 election campaign season in early May at Ingoma Stadium in Gitega, the capital. Thousands of candidates dressed in their party colors paraded in a ceremony attended by politicians and political hopefuls. Attendees described it as a milestone for the country.
“This is a first in Burundi’s democratic history,” Jean De Dieu Mutabazi, president of the Rally for Democracy and Economic and Social Development (RADEBU) party, told Africanews, adding he was optimistic about the election remaining peaceful. “It’s a very symbolic event, showing progress in our democratic culture and reducing political animosity between rivals.”
If only that were so, say analysts.
Despite a transition in 2020 from brutal autocrat Pierre Nkurunziza to President Évariste Ndayishimiye, who when he took office said he wanted to promote reform and civil liberties, five years later, the country has reverted back to a state of repression and brutality.
For example, in spite of the ceremony celebrating the candidates running in federal and local elections on June 5, the leading opposition party, the National Congress for Liberty (CNL), has been suspended, and independent candidates have mostly been excluded from the election.
“Recent events suggest that the political and security outlook in Burundi still mostly resembles the dim period of 2015-2016,” wrote Teresa Nogueira Pinto, an Africa analyst, in GIS, referring to the repression and political violence under Nkurunziza. “Despite some changes…, the (ruling) National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) has further consolidated its power…(by) … resorting to repression, including violent measures, against its opposition.”
One example of that, analysts say, is how the president has legitimized the Imbonerakure, the youth wing of the ruling party. The group has become a paramilitary force acting on behalf of the party and has been accused of torturing and assassinating opposition figures and others found disloyal to the government. Recently, it was granted official status by the legislature as the Reserve and Development Support Force and charged with defending the country and promoting patriotism.
The president has also severely restricted civil liberties and political freedoms, say human rights organizations.
For example, the government has excluded former CNL leader Agathon Rwasa, who came second in the 2020 presidential race, from the current election. It did so by implementing a new electoral code that makes it difficult for independent candidates to run, a measure designed specifically to block Rwasa’s candidacy, wrote Nigeria’s News Central.
Meanwhile, Reporters Without Borders recently warned of escalating violence against journalists sanctioned by the government, while members of opposition parties complain they face harassment, intimidation, and violence.
As a result, analysts say, the elections will bring little change to a country facing deep problems that are becoming more destabilizing, analysts said.
Burundi’s already fragile economy still hasn’t recovered from the disruptions stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine. High inflation and shortages of necessities including fuel have hit hard in a country where the majority of the population lives below the poverty line.
Now it is being further destabilized by the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) next door: More than 100,000 refugees have crossed the border into Burundi since February, the Associated Press reported. United Nations officials say the situation is dire.
Meanwhile, the war has escalated tensions with Rwanda, which is supporting the M23 rebels in the DRC with troops. As a result, Rwandan and M23 fighters are sparring with soldiers from Burundi, which supports the Congolese government. Burundi’s soldiers are also fighting the Burundian anti-government group, the Resistance for a State of Law in Burundi (RED-Tabara), based in the DRC. Burundi has long accused Rwanda of supporting the RED-Tabara, which has escalated its attacks in Burundi over the past year.
In March, Ndayishimiye accused Rwandan leader, Paul Kagame, of planning to attack Burundi.
Meanwhile, locals near the Burundian borders with the DRC and Rwanda say the halt of cross-border trade because of these tensions has hit the local economy hard, causing a loss of income and shortages of fuel and other commodities. They add that it has become impossible to acknowledge friends and family in the neighboring countries without being targeted by the government. Now, they are sure war is approaching.
“Since the (war broke out in the DRC), we are afraid,” one resident of Buganda near the border with the eastern DRC, told Afrique XXI. “When the war breaks out, we will be the first victims.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
South Korean Opposition Leader Wins Presidential Elections
SOUTH KOREA
Center-left Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung won South Korea’s presidential election Tuesday, setting up the opposition leader to shepherd a deeply polarized country through economic uncertainty and a realignment in foreign policy following the impeachment of his predecessor, the Washington Post reported.
Lee secured 49.4 percent of the vote, defeating his conservative rival Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party, who garnered 41.2 percent, the polls indicated.
The country’s election commission said turnout was more than 79 percent, the highest for a presidential election since 1997, according to the Guardian.
The special election was triggered by the removal of President Yoon Suk Yeol from office in April following his controversial martial law decree in December, which sparked six months of political instability.
Lee took office Wednesday and plans to pursue a sweeping agenda as his party holds a majority in parliament.
Even so, political analysts said Lee will inherit a myriad of challenges, including a polarized country, a slowing economy, and tense relations with both Washington and Beijing.
Lee has pledged to revise laws to tighten the conditions required for a declaration of martial law. He has also pledged to support small- and medium-sized businesses to spur economic recovery, Japan’s Kyodo News wrote.
During his campaign, he branded himself as a “centrist-conservative,” moving away from his usual leftist rhetoric to appeal to moderates and also conservatives disillusioned by Yoon’s administration.
One of the chief tasks will be to negotiate with the Trump administration, as Washington prepares to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum alongside 25 percent levies on cars.
On Monday, just ahead of the election, Lee told a radio host: “I would even crawl under (Trump’s) legs if necessary” to secure the best outcome for South Koreans.
Lee has also criticized his predecessor, Yoon, for taking a more antagonistic approach against China and insisted that diplomatic engagement with Beijing is critical, given China’s status as South Korea’s top trading partner.
Meanwhile, Lee has called for renewed dialogue with North Korea in order to curb its nuclear program.
Still, analysts remain skeptical of any imminent breakthrough given Pyongyang’s growing alignment with Russia, which has seen the country send troops to assist Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Dutch Far-Right Party Quits Government, Sparks Political Crisis
THE NETHERLANDS
Dutch far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders pulled his party out of the governing coalition Tuesday after disagreements over an immigration crackdown, a move that likely marks the end of the 11-month-old government and could spark new elections, the Associated Press reported.
Wilders had demanded that his coalition partners sign a 10-point plan to radically slash immigration, a plan that would have deployed the army to guard land borders and denied entry to asylum-seekers. Formed last July, the fragile coalition included Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), the centrist New Social Contract (NSC), and the liberal-conservative People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD).
Legal analysts said the plan violates European human rights laws and the United Nations’ refugee convention, noted the Guardian.
On Tuesday, after a meeting between the leaders of the coalition parties, Wilders pulled the PVV out of the government because of the lack of an agreement on immigration.
His decision has pushed the country into a political crisis just three weeks before the Netherlands hosts a NATO summit in The Hague, at which alliance members are expected to decide on historic increases in defense spending, wrote Reuters.
The other members of the Dutch coalition reacted with disbelief and anger, accusing Wilders and the PVV of being irresponsible in challenging times, referring to the war in Ukraine and a possible economic crisis on the horizon.
Now, new elections are likely. Until then, the remaining coalition parties have the option to remain as a minority government but they are not expected to do so. The coalition took nearly six months to form and has struggled to reach consensus on government policy ever since it took office last July.
Mongolia’s Prime Minister Ousted After Anti-Corruption Protests
MONGOLIA
Mongolia’s Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai resigned Tuesday after losing a vote of no-confidence amid an anti-corruption investigation and weeks of mass protests triggered by social media posts displaying his son’s lavish lifestyle, the BBC reported.
On Tuesday, only 44 of the 88 lawmakers who participated in the vote supported the embattled leader, while 38 voted against him. The prime minister needed the support of at least 64 of parliament’s 126 members to survive the motion.
Now, his successor must be named within 30 days.
His ouster follows weeks of demonstrations calling for his resignation amid questions over his family’s affluent lifestyle after photos of Oyun-Erdene’s son and his girlfriend flaunting Dior bags and lavish vacations were shared on social media.
Oyun-Erdene has rejected the corruption allegations as political.
Ahead of the vote, he blamed “major, visible and hidden interests” for waging an “organized campaign” to bring down the government. He also warned of potential political instability and economic chaos if he was removed.
Corruption allegations leveled at politicians are not new in the country, with many saying that the political elite has long siphoned off profits from a years-long coal mining boom, Al Jazeera explained.
Still, according to Transparency International, corruption in the country has worsened since Oyun-Erdene took office in 2021.
Analysts said that grievances over the economy and the rising cost of living also played a role in fueling the protests. However, they expressed skepticism that his successor would bring any meaningful change or tackle corruption.
DISCOVERIES
Going a-Viking
Archaeologist Greer Jarrett has been studying Vikings for years. Three years ago, he decided a little roleplay was in order and took to the seas in a replica Viking ship, making some unexpected discoveries along the way.
He and his team, sailing known Viking routes, discovered that the Vikings sailed further away from Scandinavia, and along routes further from the coast, than was previously thought possible, according to a new study.
They also found a decentralized network of ports on islands and peninsulas, which were likely key for trade and travel in Viking times.
“A lot of the time, we only know about the starting and ending points of the trade that took place during the Viking Age, major ports such as Bergen and Trondheim in Norway, Ribe in Denmark…” Jarrett said in a statement. “The thing I am interested in is what happened on the journeys between these major trading centers. My hypothesis is that this decentralized network of ports, located on small islands and peninsulas, was central to making trade efficient during the Viking Age.”
While previous studies have used chemical evidence from ancient remains and simulation models to study Viking sea routes, this team wanted to sail in their footsteps.
In 2022, they built a replica sailing boat similar to those Vikings used between 800 and 1050 CE, and they traveled from Trondheim, in central Norway, up to the Arctic Circle and back. Since then, the team has sailed over 3,000 miles along Viking trade routes, finding at least four potential Viking harbors along the Norwegian coast.
The locations of these ports, which Jarrett nicknamed “heavens,” are further out to sea than the major ports and hubs of the Viking age that were known to date.
To sail specific Viking routes, Jarrett also consulted sailors and fishermen about the traditional routes used during the 19th and early 20th centuries, when engineless sailing vessels were still common in Norway.
The Vikings didn’t use maps, compasses, or sextants to navigate. Instead, they relied on mental maps, made up of memory and experience. They also drew on myths linked to coastal landmarks, which could serve as warnings about dangerous places.
“I used the experience of my own journeys and the sailors’ traditional knowledge to reconstruct possible Viking Age sailing routes,” said Jarrett, who has made a video about his voyages. “Preserved myths are the last remnants of what must once have been a landscape steeped in stories.”