‘Everyone Is a Hardliner Now’: As the Ceasefire Holds, What Does Iran Do Next?
NEED TO KNOW
‘Everyone Is a Hardliner Now’: As the Ceasefire Holds, What Does Iran Do Next?
IRAN
Late last week, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke publicly for the first time since the ceasefire between Iran and Israel took hold on Tuesday.
He was defiant as he claimed victory over Israel and the United States.
“The Islamic republic slapped America in the face,” said Khamenei, 86, who had been in hiding for weeks. He bragged that Iran could attack US bases in the region at any time, adding that the strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities didn’t achieve “anything important”: “(Israel and the US) could not do anything, they could not achieve their goal, and they exaggerate to cover up the truth.”
As the world received conflicting accounts of the damage done to Iran’s nuclear facilities – US President Donald Trump says they were destroyed, others argue the program was only set back by only a few months – analysts highlight a bigger question in the aftermath of the fighting and the ceasefire: What comes now?
Some believe the ceasefire is only a temporary respite from the fighting, which began on June 13, when Israel began its attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, major cities such as Tehran, and other targets such as generals and those who oversaw the country’s nuclear program.
They say they believe the fighting will resume because the goals of the Israeli strikes – to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program and a secondary aim of regime change – were not achieved.
Others believe that the ceasefire will hold, and that future talks between the US and Iran could halt the fighting in the long term because the pressure is on Iran to make an agreement to limit its nuclear program.
However, some analysts say that despite any upcoming negotiations, the question will continue to linger: Will Iran rebuild its program? Many believe so, explaining that the Israeli and US strikes made the Iranian regime look weak and undermined Khamenei’s hold on the country.
Additionally, observers add, the Israeli strikes killed the old guard, which dominated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), those generals who believed in “strategic patience” and considered doing away with the country’s anti-Israel position. Now, their more “gung-ho” younger replacements have taken over the Corps, even as the IRGC is now dominating the central decision-making body of the country, the Shura.
Some believe this group could threaten the truce while pushing ahead aggressively with Iran’s nuclear program in an effort to redeem national pride.
“Any truce in the Middle East is precarious but this one is made especially complicated by a shift in power inside Iran triggered by the war,” wrote the Economist. “A new generation of generals have assumed command and gained ascendance over the clerics for the first time since Iran’s revolution in 1979… they are not cautious and their belligerence will shape Iran’s strategic ambitions long after the fighting stops.”
Now everyone is a hardliner, it added.
As a result, Alam Saleh of Australian National University told the BBC the attacks by Israel and the US will push Iran closer to developing nuclear weapons, as it has now had direct and prolonged confrontation with Israel, a nuclear-armed state, with the United States also directly engaging this time.
Iran has also learned the lessons of Iraq and Libya, which were invaded after giving up their military or nuclear programs, he added. Iran, meanwhile, had a policy of pushing its nuclear program to the point of being very close to weaponization but without crossing the line. It has now learned it must go further.
“Attacking Iran is not a strange or difficult task,” Saleh said. “The difficult part is achieving the goals of the attack. Israel claims the goal was to stop Iran’s nuclear program, which does not seem to have been achieved.”
Instead, Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, says the country is even more determined to strengthen its nuclear program.
“Our path is clear and the framework of our plans is clear,” he said. “These attacks do not have the slightest effect on our will and that of our colleagues – our forces are working with more faith, strength and vigor at all nuclear sites. Their morale has doubled after this attack… We assure the dear people of Iran that we will stand on this path to the end and will not retreat for a moment.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Israel Agrees to Gaza Ceasefire, Hamas Response Unclear
ISRAEL / WEST BANK AND GAZA
Israel agreed to a 60-day ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, US President Donald Trump announced Tuesday, a truce aimed at securing the release of hostages and ending the 21-month-long conflict, even as Hamas hasn’t yet said whether it would accept the deal, Axios reported Wednesday.
The proposed ceasefire follows months of diplomatic efforts with Washington pushing Israel and Hamas to halt hostilities in the Palestinian enclave, where fighting since October 2023 has created a dire humanitarian crisis and killed tens of thousands.
The announcement followed hours of meetings Tuesday between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer at the White House. Israeli officials said Dermer accepted the updated ceasefire and hostage-release proposal from Qatar, adding that Israel is prepared to start indirect talks with Hamas.
On Wednesday, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar also confirmed that Israel was “serious in our will” to reach a hostage deal and ceasefire, Reuters noted.
The latest initiative will see a 60-day halt in fighting, a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and expanded humanitarian aid into the territory. It also includes the release of some of the remaining 50 hostages – less than half of whom are believed to still be alive – though the exact number has not been confirmed.
Israel has not publicly commented on the proposed agreement, which comes as Trump prepares to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House next week. The two leaders are expected to hold discussions on the Gaza conflict, Iran, and other matters.
Meanwhile, Hamas announced Wednesday it was open to a ceasefire agreement with Israel but stopped short of endorsing Trump’s proposal – sparking questions about whether the latest offer could actually lead to a pause in fighting, the Associated Press added.
The Iran-backed group has insisted that it would only agree to a ceasefire if it led to the end of the conflict. While Trump said the deal would be used to work toward ending the war, Israeli officials told the AP that Israel is not committing to that as part of the deal.
Israel has maintained that any long-term ceasefire must include the removal of Hamas, its disarmament, and the exile of its senior leadership.
In his Tuesday announcement, Trump urged Hamas to accept the deal, warning on a Truth Social post that “it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE.”
The war in the Gaza Strip began after Hamas and its allies launched an attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 people and kidnapping more than 250 others. Israel responded with a sweeping military campaign that has killed more than 57,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry.
Most of the territory lies in ruins, and more than 90 percent of its 2.3 million people have been displaced. Humanitarian groups have warned about the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza that has pushed hundreds of thousands of people toward starvation.
Hundreds of Gazans have died and thousands have been injured after trying to get aid at distribution points run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
On Tuesday, more than 150 aid organizations, including Save the Children and Amnesty International, issued a joint statement calling for the dismantling of the Israeli- and US-backed aid distribution system in the Strip. The contentious scheme has come under fire over reports of disorganization and violence at food distribution points, according to Newsweek.
The aid organizations have accused Israeli forces and armed groups of “routinely” opening fire on Palestinians seeking aid. A Haaretz report last week quoted Israeli soldiers who said they were told to shoot deliberately at unarmed civilians.
Israeli officials have denied those allegations.
Dalai Lama Confirms He Will Pick a Successor, Not China
TIBET / CHINA
China on Wednesday criticized a decision by exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, to pick a successor, arguing that the succession procedure should follow tradition and Chinese law, the South China Morning Post reported.
On Wednesday, via a video message, the 14th Dalai Lama ended speculation over the succession, saying that his office held the sole authority to pick the next spiritual leader. He also reiterated that his successor must be born outside China.
“I am affirming that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue,” said the Dalai Lama, as hundreds of people from around the world gathered in Dharamshala to participate in celebrations marking the leader’s 90th birthday and to hear his message, Reuters noted. “The Gaden Phodrang Trust, the Office of His Holiness the Dalai Lama… should accordingly carry out the procedures of search and recognition in accordance with past tradition.”
The Gaden Phodrang Trust is a nonprofit organization established by the Dalai Lama to uphold and support the spiritual legacy and institutional role of the spiritual leader.
China rejected his statement, saying that the next leader would be from inside China and would need to be approved by the Chinese government. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson added that the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation needs to follow “religious rituals and historical conventions” and needs to be approved by the government.
In the Tibetan tradition, Dalai Lamas are “reincarnated” after they die. The current Dalai Lama had fled to the Indian city of Dharamshala in 1959, following the Chinese annexation of Tibet in the early 1950s. This had put succession in doubt, with some wondering whether the 600-year-old institution would end with the death of the current leader, the BBC wrote.
The Dalai Lama, himself, had previously questioned whether to continue the tradition of appointing someone as the Dalai Lama. He had also said his successor could be female, and also that there could be no successor at all.
More recently, however, he said that if there was strong support for the position among Tibetans in exile, which is the case, the tradition would continue.
Tibet scholar Robert Barnett told the BBC that the Dalai Lama’s statement is an “indirect signaling” to China that his decision to personally choose his successor is based on a quasi- democratic process: Asking his followers whether they want the institution to continue.
The Dalai Lama has long been calling for a “middle way” resolution, seeking Tibet’s autonomy within China. Meanwhile, China sees the spiritual leader as a separatist.
At the same time, China says there are benefits to China’s rule over Tibet, claiming that living standards in Tibet have improved since it came under Chinese rule, while denying allegations of suppressing human rights and freedom of expression.
Analysts say that China will likely pick its own Dalai Lama. However, they add that the majority of Tibetans, and the world in general, won’t recognize that handpicked leader.
Azerbaijan Arrests of Russian-Owned News Agency Staff, Escalating Tiff With Russia
AZERBAIJAN
Azerbaijani authorities on Tuesday jailed two staff members of Russia’s state-owned news agency, Sputnik, which police raided the day before, detaining seven staff in total and accusing the journalists of fraud, Euronews reported.
Officials said the executive director and editor-in-chief of the Sputnik office in the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, are being detained for four months for fraud, illegal entrepreneurship, and the legalization of property obtained by criminal means.
The Azerbaijan Interior Ministry also said that Sputnik Azerbaijan allegedly paid for its operation using illegal funding sources after being shut down by the Azerbaijani government in February.
Another Russian state-run media outlet, Ruptly, said one of its editors was arrested after trying to film the police raids at the Sputnik offices.
Russia considers the raids at Sputnik Azerbaijan and the detention of its staff as “unfriendly acts by Baku and the illegal arrest of Russian journalists.”
Both countries routinely crack down on their own journalists as well as foreign correspondents, and have virtually no press freedoms, according to Reporters Without Borders.
Some believe the crackdown on the Russians in Baku is in retaliation for deadly raids by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in the Russian central city of Yekaterinburg, where more than 50 Azerbaijanis were detained last Friday.
Following the death of two Azerbaijani brothers in the raids, Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov, Azerbaijan accused Russia of ethnic profiling and police brutality: Forensic reports indicate that their deaths were due to blunt force trauma.
Three other people were seriously injured in the FSB raids.
Russia said that the raids in Yekaterinburg were part of an investigation into several murders from the early 2000s, according to the Associated Press.
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry condemned the operation as “brutal and unjustified.” The country also cancelled a scheduled trip to Moscow by Azerbaijani officials and all cultural events planned by Russia in a sign of protest.
Diplomatic ties between Azerbaijan and Russia began to deteriorate in December, when an Azerbaijani airliner crashed in Kazakhstan.
Azerbaijan had accused Russia of obstructing the investigation into the incident, which later showed that the plane was struck by the Russian air force in response to a Ukrainian drone attack on Grozny, Chechnya’s administrative capital, Al Jazeera wrote.
DISCOVERIES
The Uniqueness of Breath
Fingerprints, genes, and gut bacteria are among the many things that make every human unique.
Now, scientists at the Weizmann Institute in Israel have discovered that each person’s breathing pattern is one-of-a-kind and can serve as a biological identifier.
In a novel study, the research team developed a lightweight, wearable device that continuously tracked airflow through the nostrils of 100 healthy young adults for 24 hours.
The research originally began as a side project in their olfaction lab – studying how the brain processes smells – but became a project on “respiratory fingerprints.”
“You would think that breathing has been measured and analyzed in every way,” senior author Noam Sobel said in a statement. “Yet we stumbled upon a completely new way to look at respiration. We consider this as a brain readout.”
Sobel and his colleagues found that individuals could be identified with nearly 97 percent accuracy from their breathing, with each person’s breath having a distinct rhythm and structure.
“I thought it would be really hard to identify someone because everyone is doing different things, like running, studying or resting” said co-author Timna Soroka. “But it turns out their breathing patterns were remarkably distinct.”
But the findings also showed that these respiratory fingerprints provide a profile of the individuals, including their body mass index, anxiety and depression levels, and even behavioral traits.
For example, participants with self-reported anxiety issues showed shorter inhalations and more irregular pauses in their sleep breathing patterns.
“We expected to be able to identify individuals,” Soroka told ScienceAlert, “but not that it would be so strong.”
The authors explained that the study proves that breathing isn’t just about oxygen but is also tied to our brain activity and emotional health.
Further research on respiratory fingerprints could lead to new methods to help diagnose or even treat physical and mental health conditions in the future, they added.
“We can learn how specific breathing patterns may predict various diseases,” Soroka told ScienceAlert. “But of course, in the future we will examine whether we can also treat disease by modifying respiratory patterns.”