Playing With Fire: Arab States Want Stability, But Get War
NEED TO KNOW
Playing With Fire: Arab States Want Stability, But Get War
MIDDLE EAST
After the United States joined the Israel-Iran conflict and struck three Iranian nuclear sites last month, Arab governments became caught in a bind: While none of them want to see a nuclear-armed Iran, and many are staunch allies of the US who depend on its funding and military, they feared getting caught in the middle of what they thought might become a widening war.
So they were quick to condemn the strikes.
“The actions taken by the United States threaten to expand the scope of the conflict and constitute a serious violation of international law,” said Oman’s Foreign Ministry, which had been brokering negotiations between Iran and the US.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and others, none of which have much regard for Iran, criticized the US strikes. They called for new negotiations with the theocracy.
The reaction, while reflecting the realities on the ground, also underscores a shift in the region over the past five years brought on by the rapprochement of most Gulf states with Iran and the belief by many Arab governments that Israel is more of a threat to Middle East stability now, and that the US won’t stop or restrain it, even when asked.
“The overwhelming feeling is one of, there’s a pyromaniac in the room, and we want the firemen to come and put out the fire,” H.A. Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London told the Washington Post, referring to Israel. “Instead, they’re just adding more fire.”
Arab states want stability, analysts say, but they get war after war. The 21-month war in Gaza has already undermined peace in the region because it inspires fury on the streets of Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab states, wrote World Politics Review.
Now, countries in the region fear Iranian retaliatory attacks on their soil. Iran hit an airbase in Qatar on June 23, just one of numerous US bases in countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, Jordan, Oman, and Bahrain.
The Gulf states, in particular, worry that the instability caused by the Iran-Israel conflict could impact business and economic growth, especially blocking shipments of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had threatened to close.
That’s because the Gulf states have a business-first mentality, analysts say.
Another reason that Arab countries are less worried about Iran is that the terror groups it sponsored and which sowed instability in the region are weaker now. For example, after the war in Gaza began in late 2023, Israel killed much of the leadership of Hamas in Gaza, weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon, and is currently fighting the Houthis in Yemen, who have created havoc for shipping on the Red Sea.
Iran, in spite of détente with Arab states, is deeply unpopular in the region. Even so, while the Arab states would welcome regime change in Iran, they worry that a destabilized Iran could threaten the entire region. Worse, they fear that Iran won’t agree to negotiations again for a nuclear deal, talks they believe Israel deliberately interrupted along with developing Iranian ties with the Gulf states, analysts say. As a result, they worry Iran may now accelerate its nuclear program and build a bomb, as it has threatened to.
Still, some analysts believe the ties that link Israel to the Arab states, either with direct diplomatic relations, or quiet back-channel communications held throughout the conflict. After all, Jordan shot down Iranian missiles targeting Israel and the Saudis allowed the country to use its airspace in June, all while condemning the attacks on Iran.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is trying to expand the Abraham Accords, which saw Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco, and Sudan establish diplomatic relations with Israel. US officials believe there will be a peace dividend from the Iran conflict. Analysts say that’s wishful thinking.
Arab states worry about Israeli aggression and ambition, which is already impacting their economies. A new regional order where Israel behaves with impunity because the West allows it to, while dictating security norms to its neighbors, is not something Arab states want, say analysts.
“Look at what they’re doing today within their direct environment,” Bader Al-Saif of Kuwait University told the Financial Times, referring to Israel’s military action in Lebanon, its taking of Syrian territory, and its increasing aggressiveness in the West Bank. “What if they come out victorious with Iran? They’ll be dictating the show in the region and we can’t accept this.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Brazil’s Lawmakers Approve Controversial Environmental Bill Ahead of COP30
BRAZIL
Brazilian lawmakers passed a bill Thursday that significantly weakens environmental protections by loosening land licensing, a move environmentalists say is the most severe setback to Brazil’s environmental program in 40 years, the Guardian reported.
The new law, which critics call the “devastation bill,” was passed by the lower house of the legislature on Thursday by 267 votes to 116. The Senate passed the bill in May.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva now has two weeks to sign the bill or veto it. If he does veto the bill, however, it’s likely the legislature will overturn it. Analysts say this would likely spark a legal battle in the Supreme Court over the law’s constitutionality.
Proponents of the bill say the process needs to be reformed because it is agonizingly slow. At the same time, Brazilian business leaders see the environmental permitting process as a barrier to development.
Analysts say the impetus behind the bill was the long wait by state-run oil firm Petrobras to get a permit to drill for oil in the state of Amapá, a region in the Amazon with a fragile ecosystem and one of the poorest in Brazil.
Meanwhile, critics say the bill permits projects deemed to have “medium” polluting potential to secure environmental licenses through a self-declared online form, bypassing prior impact assessment or regulatory oversight.
This fast-track process used to only be allowed for low-risk activities. Now, it will affect about 90 percent of licensing procedures in the country, including mining and most agricultural activities.
Opponents add that it would lead to large-scale deforestation and increase the risk of human-caused climate disasters, according to Reuters.
Legal experts have already said the law violates the Constitution and previous Supreme Court rulings.
Brazil will host the United Nations COP30 climate conference in November in the Amazon region, with critics adding that the law undermines the credibility of Brazil when it comes to environmental safeguards.
Netanyahu Loses Majority After Another Party Leaves Coalition Government
ISRAEL
An Israeli ultra-Orthodox party announced it would leave the country’s governing coalition this week, a move that will strip Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party of its parliamentary majority and could force early elections, the Washington Post reported.
On Wednesday, the Shas party announced it would exit the right-wing coalition in protest of Netanyahu’s failure to enshrine into law the long-standing exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews from military service on religious grounds.
The party is the latest right-wing grouping to leave the government: Earlier this week, the ultra-orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party exited the coalition over the same issue.
In its announcement, Shas called on Netanyahu to push the exemption bill before the start of the parliamentary session in October. It also demanded a deal that would see the return of the remaining 50 hostages held in the Gaza Strip.
The party added that it would not undermine the governing coalition and would not join the opposition to bring it down, according to the Associated Press.
Shas’ exit will take effect Sunday, leaving Netanyahu’s coalition with only 50 out of the 120 seats in parliament and vulnerable to potential no-confidence motions.
The latest setback for Netanyahu centers on the military draft exemption bill that has become a point of contention within his cabinet and gained national attention, particularly after the conflict with Hamas began in October 2023.
Israel’s conscription laws require all able-bodied members of the Jewish majority to serve in the army for at least two years after turning 18. Failure to do so can result in imprisonment, fines or other punitive measures.
However, ultra-Orthodox Jewish men have historically avoided conscription by continuing to study at yeshivas, religious institutions focused on traditional Jewish texts.
But many Israelis and army reservists have voiced anger over exemptions to the ultra-Orthodox community. Last year, a poll by the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute found that around 85 percent of Israelis support ultra-Orthodox enlistment.
Analysts said the party’s exit comes just before lawmakers are set to recess for the summer, which would offer the Israeli prime minister some time to reach a compromise with the parties before parliament reconvenes in the fall.
But if Netanyahu fails to reach an agreement before then, the country could see early elections.
Israel has held five elections since 2019, the most recent in November 2022.
The fate of the coalition has also prompted questions about a US-backed ceasefire agreement with Hamas that would pause the 21-month-long conflict in Gaza for two months. This would allow the release of roughly half of the remaining 50 hostages, and pave the way for end-of-war negotiations.
Observers cautioned that a fracturing coalition could force Netanyahu to appease far-right members of his coalition, who have signaled they would oppose any deal they view as too lenient.
UK to Allow 16-Year-Olds to Vote
UNITED KINGDOM
The United Kingdom plans to lower the voting age to 16 in all British elections, a move officials say will boost public trust in democracy and align the voting age across the country, Reuters reported.
“They’re old enough to go out to work, they’re old enough to pay taxes… and I think if you pay in, you should have the opportunity to say what you want your money spent on, which way the government should go,” Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told ITV News.
This change is likely to receive parliamentary approval as it was part of Starmer’s election campaign last year, and his Labour party holds a large majority.
It would also help unify the country’s voting ages: Scotland and Wales dropped the age from 18 to 16 over the past decade.
Meanwhile, a recent poll showed that only a slim majority – 51 percent – think the voting age should be lowered to 16. However, only 18 percent of those individuals it is set to impact said they would vote if an election were held tomorrow.
The Conservative Party, now the second largest in parliament and trailing further behind its rivals since losing power in last year’s general election, criticized the move, saying it was rushed and needed more time for discussion.
The party also argued that allowing 16-year-olds to vote sends mixed signals: It would allow 16- and 17-year-olds to choose representatives but not run as candidates, marry or buy a lottery ticket.
DISCOVERIES
Lethal Barf
Most spiders pack venom glands to subdue their prey. Then there is one species that uses a more “gutsy” approach to grabbing its meal.
Meet the feather-legged lace weaver, an unassuming spider that immobilizes its prey by vomiting toxic juices onto other insects in a novel form of chemical warfare but from the gut.
That’s because this arachnid, native to Europe and Africa and known as Uloborus plumipes, lacks venom glands entirely – a rarity among spiders, researchers at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland reported in a new study.
The team first stumbled across the idea while reviewing a scientific paper from 1931 with a sketch of a spider regurgitating onto its prey. The discovery prompted them to begin a full-blown investigation into the spider’s hunting tactics, wrote Science News.
Tracking down specimens from plant shops and garden centers, the researchers confirmed the peculiar feeding style: When a lace weaver snares a victim – usually a small insect – it spins hundreds of meters of silk to cocoon it, then regurgitates digestive toxins all over the unlucky prey.
Cross-sections of the arachnids’ heads confirmed there were no venom glands and the fangs lacked any ducts to inject venom, ScienceAlert added.
But lab tests on the spider barf showed that this regurgitated substance is loaded with potent toxins – proteins similar to those found in the venom of more conventionally deadly spiders.
Though technically not “venom” by definition – since it’s not injected – the toxin-laced vomit is just as lethal.
“These samples proved highly insecticidal, killing an average of 50 percent of fruit flies within an hour of inoculation,” lead author Giulia Zancolli told myScience.ch, a Swiss portal for research and innovation.
The team explained that the findings offer clues about how spider venom may have evolved, suggesting that the toxins initially served to digest prey before the U. plumipes adapted them for its hunting strategy.
“These findings support the hypothesis that Uloboridae spiders have lost their venom apparatus while retaining toxin-like genes,” the authors wrote. “The potent toxicity of their digestive fluids… likely compensate for the absence of venom, ensuring effective prey immobilization and digestion.”