Second Chances: Russia’s Economy is Bleeding But Putin Is Betting on a Win in Alaska
NEED TO KNOW
Second Chances: Russia’s Economy is Bleeding But Putin Is Betting on a Win in Alaska
RUSSIA
Over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump agreed to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Afterward, Russian officials and commentators “crowed about (Putin) landing a summit,” without making any concessions, wrote the Washington Post, noting it’s the first time the Russian leader has been invited to the United States since 2007.
Russians saw it as a win.
“The symbolism of holding the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska is horrendous – as though designed to demonstrate that borders can change, land can be bought and sold,” Sam Greene, professor in Russian politics at King’s College London, told the newspaper, adding that the venue favored Russia, which owned Alaska until 1867. “Never mind that mainstream Russian discourse maintains a claim that Alaska should be returned to Russia.”
Russia currently controls about 20 percent of Ukraine. Putin said this week that he would halt the war in exchange for obtaining Eastern Ukraine. Trump and other US officials have recently expressed an openness to the idea, one vehemently opposed by Ukraine.
Meanwhile, European Union officials and the Ukrainians were visibly upset at being excluded from the summit, urging more pressure on Russia, such as sanctions. On Monday, EU leaders will hold an emergency meeting on the developing situation, with Germany warning the White House against any deal on Ukraine hatched “over the heads of Europeans and Ukrainians.”
The US announcement of the meeting caught many off guard. For weeks, Trump, frustrated at Putin’s intransigence on ending the war, had been threatening new sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers that ply the seas to bypass restrictions on selling Russian crude for foreign cash that fuels the war in Ukraine.
That might be why Putin’s supporters are celebrating the upcoming meeting, analysts said, adding that such additional sanctions would deeply hurt Russia.
As the Financial Times explained, while American companies must buy Russian oil at a fixed price of $60 per barrel and European Union countries must pay no more than around $50 per barrel, Indian and Chinese firms are purchasing oil above the cap, though still at a discount compared with regular prices. In that sense, the war has benefited Indian and Chinese economies as well as Russia.
The ships might also be involved in other illicit activities, like shuttling munitions and other support to Libyan warlords, the International Consortium of International Journalists reported.
These new sanctions were one sign of how American leaders were becoming increasingly hawkish about punishing Putin for starting the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II. While the causes of that war are still being debated in venues like Piers Morgan Uncensored, analysts told Times Radio that American diplomats are losing patience with Putin, who has been unwilling to engage in American efforts to end the bloodshed.
Trump had given Putin until Aug. 8 to stop fighting, or China, India, and other countries that accept Russian oil would face so-called “secondary” sanctions, or levies on their trade with the US.
Trump has already imposed 25 percent tariffs on India for their Russian oil trade, a rate that’s low compared with a 500 percent secondary tariff that Congress has proposed to punish Russia, the Hill wrote. Indian officials, who might now be able to cut off Russian oil, have so far rejected the US president’s efforts to alter their economic and energy policy, noted Breaking Points. Analysts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace warned that the tariffs would undermine US relations with India, the world’s largest democracy.
Ukraine, unsurprisingly, has been lobbying hard for the US to enact the tariffs, according to ABC News. Still, Putin does not believe the sanctions threat will make much difference, Reuters added.
They could hurt Russia, however, if the US enforces them stridently enough to convince more Chinese and Indian companies to opt for another supplier from the Middle East or elsewhere, argued the Kyiv Post. In that case, even a small reduction in Russian gross domestic product could impose great costs on Russia’s fragile wartime economy, Foreign Policy magazine added.
The sanctions on the country are biting, too.
For example, Russia has more potential agricultural land than anywhere else in the world but it has run out of potatoes, onions, and other vegetables, reported DPA, a German newswire.
The shortages followed a spike in the price of potatoes in Russian shops, almost tripling within the last year. Meanwhile, the price of onions has doubled, and cabbage is now 50 percent more expensive than it was a year ago.
Russian officials, meanwhile, say the country is on the verge of a recession.
Since sanctions began after the country’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy has grown despite the punitive measures, mainly because of war production and the country’s moves to replace imports, using money from the wealth fund and capital reserves in the banking system. But those reserves are now depleted.
Still, there are always the oligarchs to turn to, observers say.
Earlier this year, Russian officials, backed by the courts, accelerated appropriating the assets of rich Russians to fund their war. In March, the prosecutor general announced it had seized almost $30 billion in assets, not specifying a time period.
In one such example, Russian authorities arrested one of the country’s most powerful oligarchs, billionaire Konstantin Strukov, as he sought to leave the country in July. That move had followed raids on his company, gold producer Yuzhuralzoloto, accusing the firm of violating environmental and industry safety laws – a pretext, say analysts, for confiscating all of Strukov’s shares, worth billions.
“As the staggering costs of his war against Ukraine add up, exacerbated by harsh international economic sanctions, the Kremlin is stepping up implementation of a new funding method to help cover them: seizing assets from wealthy individuals, including longtime Putin loyalists,” wrote World Politics Review. “While authorities claimed to be targeting foreign-owned companies in an effort to nationalize strategic industries, that seems to be just a pretext to grab assets for an increasingly strapped economy….”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Israel’s Plan To Seize Gaza Elicits Domestic and International Outrage
ISRAEL / WEST BANK & GAZA
Israel’s decision to launch a major operation to seize Gaza City drew sharp domestic and international condemnation over the weekend, with critics warning the move would deepen the territory’s humanitarian crisis, derail ceasefire efforts, imperil the hostages, and risk mass displacement, Euronews reported.
The Israeli security cabinet approved the plan early Friday after hours of debate, in what observers called one of the most significant escalations in Israel’s nearly two-year war against Hamas.
The decision came a day after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would “take control of all Gaza,” while insisting there is no intention of permanently occupying the territory.
He added that Israel plans to hand Gaza’s governance to a coalition of Arab forces after removing Hamas.
The plan stipulates five principles for ending the war in the Palestinian exclave: Disarm Hamas, return all remaining hostages, demilitarize Gaza, take security control, and establish “an alternative civil administration that is neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority,” according to the BBC.
Israeli media said the first phase of the operation would relocate an estimated one million Gaza City residents southward and target areas believed to hold hostages, followed by a second offensive alongside an increase in humanitarian aid.
About 75 percent of Gaza is already under Israeli control.
However, the United Nations estimates that around 87 percent of Gaza is under military orders or evacuation zones, with nearly the entire 2.1 million population displaced. UN officials have also warned that the besieged territory is on the brink of famine, with July marking the worst month for child malnutrition since the war began.
The plan’s announcement triggered criticism inside Israel – including from security officials – and the nation’s European allies.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid and senior military officials warned that the operation could endanger hostages and exhaust combat forces. On Saturday, tens of thousands of Israelis protested in Tel Aviv against the plan, demanding an end to the war and the return of the remaining 49 are still being held in Gaza – including 27 others the military says are dead, Agence France-Presse wrote.
Regionally, the Palestinian Authority called the plan “a new crime” and demanded the right to govern Gaza.
The foreign ministers of Egypt and Turkey also criticized it as an “inadmissible plan” and accused Israel of trying to “de-Palestinize” Gaza, Africanews added.
The contentious plan also resulted in a rare pushback from Israel’s closest allies: On Friday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that Berlin would halt all arms exports that could be used in Gaza “until further notice,” breaking with a long-standing policy of unconditional security support, the Washington Post noted.
Analysts said the move was a major policy shift for Germany, one of Israel’s staunchest allies in the European Union, whose relationship has been shaped by historical guilt over the Holocaust.
Netanyahu expressed disappointment at Germany’s decision, claiming it was “rewarding Hamas terrorism.”
Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer urged Israel to “reconsider immediately” and warned the plan would bring “more bloodshed” instead of securing the hostages’ release.
Similar calls came from Spain, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Finland, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stressed the need for “immediate and unhindered” aid access.
The UN’s human rights chief, Volker Türk, slammed the plan, saying it ran “contrary” to the International Court of Justice’s ruling to end Israel’s occupation “as soon as possible.”
In contrast, the Trump administration maintained the decision was “pretty much up to Israel” and blamed Hamas for stalling ceasefire negotiations.
Hamas has demanded an end to the war and Israeli withdrawal, conditions Israel refuses.
Netanyahu and other Israeli officials have rejected criticism and denied reports of Israel starving Gaza’s population as “malignant lies.” On Sunday, the prime minister insisted that the plan is “the best way to end the war and the best way to end it speedily,” NPR added.
The war began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage. Israel’s response has killed more than 61,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health ministry, and displaced nearly the entire population.
Human rights groups are now describing conditions in Gaza as a humanitarian catastrophe with famine-like conditions.
Protesters In Ivory Coast Oppose Leader’s Fourth Term
IVORY COAST
Thousands of people took to the streets of the country’s largest city, Abidjan, over the weekend to protest the exclusion of leading opposition figures from Ivory Coast’s October presidential election, as incumbent President Alassane Ouattara said he would seek a fourth term, the Associated Press reported.
On Saturday, demonstrators protested in Yopougon, a densely populated suburb of the city, carrying banners reading “Enough is enough!” and “No true democracy without true justice.”
They also voiced support for former President Laurent Gbagbo and Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI) leader Tidjane Thiam, who were barred – along with two other opposition figures – from running in the upcoming race.
Gbagbo and Thiam formed an alliance earlier this year to challenge Ouattara, who has been in power since 2010.
Ouattara, 83, announced in July that he would seek another term, sparking criticism from opponents who accuse him of undermining democracy.
Analysts said that Ouattara is able to run because he amended the constitution in 2016 to remove presidential term limits.
The move makes the West African president the latest among a growing number of regional leaders who remain in power by changing the rules.
There was no immediate response from Ivorian authorities to Saturday’s protest, but past elections in Ivory Coast have been marred by unrest.
Ouattara’s bid for a third term in 2020 triggered violence that left several people dead.
The president cited unprecedented security, economic, and monetary challenges that required experienced leadership as his reason to run again, according to Agence France-Presse.
Ivory Coast, a top producer of cocoa, is one of the biggest economies in West Africa.
However, armed groups affiliated with al Qaeda and Islamic State have been spreading from the Sahel region into wealthier West African coastal states, such as Ivory Coast, Togo, and Benin.
Ecuador Declares New State Of Emergency, Plans New Referendum
ECUADOR
Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency in four coastal provinces this week following a surge in gang-related violence that has intensified since the recent extradition of a major gang leader to the United States, MercoPress reported.
The decree will apply to the provinces of El Oro, Guayas, Los Ríos, and Manabí, and is the latest in a series of similar declarations by Noboa to fight the unprecedented security crisis that has made Ecuador one of the most violent countries in Latin America.
The measure suspends the rights that had hindered searches of homes and the monitoring of communications, and allows the military and the police to conduct joint operations.
The country’s constitutional court will review the measure, with observers saying the process comes amid ongoing tensions between the president and the court over using such tools to combat crime.
The decree came less than 48 hours before a deadly attack in El Oro over the weekend, when about 60 armed men opened fire on a boat and launched explosives at its occupants. Local media reported at least four deaths and more than a dozen people missing, the Associated Press added.
Ecuador’s navy said the attackers attempted to flee in three boats but only one escaped. But no arrests have been made, and authorities have not commented on the incident.
On Sunday, a shooting at a nightclub in the Guayas province killed eight people, CBS News wrote. Authorities said the suspects were heavily armed and riding motorcycles, but did not say what prompted the shooting.
Noboa, who was reelected in May, has pledged to combat drug trafficking and violent crime in the South American nation.
In 2023, Ecuador recorded about 8,000 killings, with the figure falling to under 7,000 last year. However, officials said violence has risen again this year, with 4,619 killings reported from January to June.
The new state of emergency comes less than a month after Ecuadorean authorities extradited infamous gang leader Adolfo Macias Villamar, also known as “Fito,” to the United States, Al Jazeera noted.
Fico stands accused of international drug trafficking and weapons smuggling. His extradition came shortly after he was recaptured in June following an escape in 2024 from a maximum-security prison.
Alongside the emergency measures, Noboa proposed a referendum with seven constitutional amendments, including authorizing foreign military bases, introducing labor and casino reforms, and allowing the impeachment of constitutional court members.
Analysts cautioned that the proposed amendments could reshape the balance of power and erode Ecuador’s fragile democracy.
DISCOVERIES
Dam Consequences
Dams have helped humanity thrive and develop, but such structures have also resulted in unintentional consequences for the environment.
Now, a new study has found that dams are not just impacting local ecosystems – they are shifting Earth’s poles.
To arrive at this conclusion, lead author Natasha Valencic and her team from Harvard University analyzed the impact of nearly 7,000 dams constructed between 1835 and 2011, which collectively hold enough freshwater to fill the Grand Canyon twice.
They said these structures redistributed Earth’s mass in a way that physically altered the planet’s spin – a process known as “true polar wander.” As a result, nearly two centuries of dam building has shifted Earth’s geographic poles by more than three feet.
“As we trap water behind dams, not only does it remove water from the oceans, thus leading to a global sea level fall, it also distributes mass in a different way around the world,” Valencic explained in a statement. “We’re not going to drop into a new ice age, because the pole moved by about a meter (roughly three feet) in total, but it does have implications for sea level.”
The researchers found that from 1835 to 1954 – when most dams were built in North America and Europe – the North Pole shifted about eight inches toward the 103rd meridian east, which passes through Russia, Mongolia, China, and the Indochina Peninsula.
Meanwhile, dam construction in East Africa and Asia from 1954 to 2011 saw the pole swerve 22 inches the other way, toward the 117th meridian west, near western North America.
Altogether, the planet’s poles moved around 3.7 feet, with most of the movement occurring in the 20th century.
However, that wasn’t the only planetary nudge: The study also estimated a global sea level drop of 0.83 inches, a subtle but measurable dip.
While these numbers might sound small, they underscore the astronomical impact of these man-made objects on the world, noted Popular Mechanics.
For example, NASA scientist Benjamin Fong Chao found in 2005 that when China’s gargantuan Three Gorges Dam became full, it slowed Earth’s rotation by 0.06 microseconds.
The authors said that while these are incremental figures, they matter and can help in better calculating future sea level rise.
“Depending on where you place dams and reservoirs, the geometry of sea level rise will change,” Valencic added. “These changes can be pretty large, pretty significant.”