The War Dividend: In Sudan’s Civil War, a Gold Rush Precludes Peace
NEED TO KNOW
The War Dividend: In Sudan’s Civil War, a Gold Rush Precludes Peace
SUDAN
When war erupted in Sudan’s capital in April 2023, Zainab Aamer faced an impossible choice: stay and risk death, or flee into unknown danger.
Aamer, a widow and mother of six, had worked as a nurse in Khartoum before she decided to leave, becoming one of more than 12 million internal refugees in what the United Nations calls the world’s largest displacement crisis.
“I had to protect my daughters,” she said, recounting the perilous 500-mile journey to Port Sudan on the coast that cost her eldest son his life.
For the internally displaced like Aamer, the announcement in September by the group known as the “Quad” – the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates – of a proposal for a three-month truce and a permanent peace should bring some hope for the future.
But it likely won’t, say analysts. That’s because this conflict is not just about power and territory and tribes – it’s about gold, which means it’s too lucrative a war for its key players to want peace.
“The gold trade connects Sudan’s civil war to the wider region and highlights the roles that commodities play in perpetuating violent conflict,” wrote the British think tank, Chatham House. “The multi-billion-dollar trade of gold sustains and shapes Sudan’s conflict. This commodity is the most significant source of income for the warring parties, feeding an associated cross-border network of actors including other armed groups, producers, traders, smugglers, and external governments.”
In 2019, Sudan saw a popular revolution that ousted longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir, who was in power for 30 years. Afterward, a transitional civilian council took over the country before being deposed by another military coup in 2021. Afterward, as protesters fought for a transition to democracy, power struggles grew between the army commander leading the country, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and his deputy, Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti), head of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a militia that arose out of the Janjaweed terror group in the Darfur region that killed thousands of people there in the 1980s.
In April 2023, war broke out over the integration of the two forces. In the two years since, the fight has killed about 150,000 people.
Both sides have to date rejected moves toward peace. In August, Burhan said he would “defeat this rebellion.” Hemedti, who was sworn in as head of a parallel government in April, says he represents Sudan’s future with “a broad civilian coalition that represents the true face of Sudan.”
Meanwhile, they have carved up the country and its resources among themselves. The SAF controls the north, the east, the capital of Khartoum, and Sennar state in the south. The RSF controls parts of the south and center and most of the west of the country, where it is fighting for control of El-Fasher, its last stronghold in the resource-rich Darfur region. Elsewhere in the country, there are other rebel groups and tribal militias holding on to smaller fiefdoms, fighting one or both parties.
And both profit from, and are supported by, the production of gold, which is increasing in the country: Last year, Sudan’s state-owned Mineral Resources Company reported gold production hit 64 tons in 2024, up from 41.8 tons in 2022.
Along with the increase in production, the value of gold gained 27 percent in 2024, capping a decade in which it has more than doubled in value. In the first six months of this year, gold’s value increased by a further 24 percent.
Both the RSF and the SAF are not only deeply involved in the production of gold in the areas they control, but even work together to harvest the riches and smuggle them out of the country, said analysts. As a result, foreign powers have created “networks of dependency” through gold smuggling, with “Dubai already serving as the primary destination for gold smuggled by militias,” wrote Noria Research in a recent analysis. “Regional powers currently intervening in Sudan do view the country as the site for national interests, but in the manner that 19th-century colonial powers viewed Africa.”
And a weak Sudan, one in a state of civil war, makes stealing its resources far simpler, it added, because “a unified state cannot assert sovereignty to any meaningful degree… This is a much simpler task than navigating a constellation of bureaucrats, judges, businessmen, politicians, and civil society, as would be the case were Sudan made whole again.”
The UAE is the key foreign player in Sudan but far from the only one. The SAF has received weaponry and financial support from Russia’s Africa Corps (formerly the Wagner Group of mercenaries), Turkey, Iran, Egypt, and Qatar, among others. The RSF has received support from the UAE and those it has influence over, including Kenya, Uganda, Libya – via Khalifa Haftar – and Ethiopia.
As a result, analysts say what has developed in the region is a broader regional gold economy with a constellation of war-torn countries such as Libya, the Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of Congo revolving around the UAE: Almost half of all exported African gold flows there, where its origins are scrubbed before being sold.
For the UAE, it’s not just about the riches, but about power in the region, food security, and a return on its investment, say analysts.
“The UAE has emerged as the foreign player most invested in the war,” wrote May Darwich of the University of Birmingham, in the Conversation, noting the country’s more than $6 billion in investment into Sudan. “It views resource-rich, strategically located Sudan as an opportunity to expand its influence and control in the Middle East and east Africa.”
The UAE also recruits mercenaries from Sudan, for example, for its fight in Yemen.
Emirati officials have repeatedly denied the UAE’s involvement in Sudan, claiming its neutrality. But US officials have blasted the country for its involvement in the war and for sustaining the conflict.
Meanwhile, as gold continues to flow out of Sudan, its warring parties have yet to respond to the proposal by the Quad.
That means more waiting for the dividends of peace for children like Sondos, 8, who, with her family, fled to yet another refugee camp because of repeated RSF attacks on El-Fasher, the capital of Sudan’s North Darfur state, and its refugee camps of Zamzam and Abu Shouk. Famine is growing in the region due to a blockade by the militia, the UN says.
We had no choice but to leave, Sondos says: “There was only hunger and bombs.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
UN Reimposes Sanctions on Iran as Nuclear Dispute Escalates
IRAN
The United Nations reimposed sanctions on Iran over the weekend in a move that deepened the standoff with Western powers, immediately rattled Iran’s economy, and revived threats of further confrontation in the region, the Financial Times reported.
The sanctions automatically took effect after a Saturday night deadline expired, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying they were restored because Iran failed to meet its nuclear commitments.
The sanctions include a conventional arms embargo, restrictions on ballistic missile-related activities, a ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing, a global asset freeze, and travel bans on Iranian individuals and entities.
The move comes a month after the United Kingdom, France, and Germany – known as the E3 – triggered a “snapback” process over Iran’s nuclear program. The three European powers accused the country of failing to fulfill commitments to a 2015 deal that would give Iran sanction relief in return for accepting strict limits on its nuclear activity.
At the time, the E3 gave Tehran 30 days to resume unconditional negotiations with the United States, grant International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors access to nuclear sites, and account for its stockpile of uranium enriched close to weapons grade.
On Sunday, the three nations said in a joint statement that “the reimposition of UN sanctions is not the end of diplomacy” but warned Tehran to “refrain from any escalatory action,” according to Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty.
However, Iranian officials blasted the sanctions as “illegal” and “null and void.” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi accused Western powers of “bullying” and claimed the failure of dialogue was deliberate by Western nations.
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian said the United States had demanded Iran hand over all enriched uranium in exchange for a three-month sanctions exemption, which he called “absolutely unacceptable.” He added that mistrust of Washington remained “quite high.”
Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program have been high since the first Trump administration in 2018 withdrew from the 2015 agreement and reimposed sanctions on Tehran. The Islamic Republic responded by expanding its nuclear program and increasing its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity – close to weapons grade.
Tehran and Washington were engaged in indirect talks to resolve the crisis, but they collapsed after Israel launched a series of strikes on Iran in June. The US later joined Israel in bombing Iran’s nuclear sites, which further deteriorated relations and chances of talks.
Despite European powers expressing openness to talks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently reiterated that negotiating with the Trump administration under current conditions would amount to “surrender” and “disgrace.”
Iranian military officials also warned they were prepared to respond if Israel used the UN measures as a pretext for further military action.
Meanwhile, Iranian authorities attempted to downplay the effects of the sanctions, but analysts cautioned that they would have a major impact on the country’s economy, including weakening its currency and raising prices for food supplies and other staples.
Ruling Pro-EU Party Wins Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections Amid Fears of Russian Interference
MOLDOVA
Moldova’s ruling pro-European Union party won Sunday’s parliamentary elections, in a vote that was marred by allegations of Russian interference and widely viewed as a choice between closer integration with the EU or Moscow, CNN reported.
With nearly all votes counted, the country’s election commission announced early Monday that the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) secured 50.05 percent of the vote, while the pro-Russian opposition Patriotic Bloc gained a little more than 24 percent.
The official tally is expected later on Monday, but the outcome shows that the PAS of President Maia Sandu is expected to retain its majority in parliament.
Meanwhile, former President Igor Dodon of the Patriotic Bloc called for protests in front of the legislature.
The results of Sunday’s elections come amid widespread concerns that Russia was attempting to influence the elections.
Moldovan authorities have accused Moscow of funneling billions of dollars into pro-Kremlin parties, organizing vote-buying schemes and propaganda, including recruiting priests to influence congregations.
Russia has denied allegations of interference.
On Friday, Moldova’s Central Electoral Commission over the weekend banned the pro-Russian opposition party Greater Moldova from participating in Sunday’s parliamentary election following suspicions of illegal financing, Reuters noted.
It was the second such exclusion in a week that has intensified concerns about Moscow’s meddling and the country’s future European Union membership,
Sunday’s elections were seen as a decisive vote for the former Soviet republic of 2.4 million people, which is wedged between Ukraine and Romania. Since the end of the Cold War, it has veered between pro-Western and pro-Russian courses.
Analysts explained that the vote’s outcome was closely monitored across the EU, where fears remain high that Russia could exploit Moldova as part of its broader hybrid campaign against the West, the Guardian wrote.
A western diplomat called Moldova’s trajectory “disproportionately big for Europe,” while intelligence officials described the country as a Kremlin priority after Ukraine.
Sandu and her pro-Western PAS have dominated the country’s politics since 2020, when she won the presidential election by a landslide. The president has vowed to fight corruption and secure EU membership by 2030.
In 2023, Moldova was awarded EU candidate status.
Even so, PAS has come under scrutiny amid discontent over inflation, emigration, and slow growth.
Before the vote, Sandu warned voters of “danger” facing the country, saying its fate “must be decided by your vote, not by bought votes.”
Protests Over Power Blackouts Escalate in Madagascar
MADAGASCAR
Hundreds of protesters clashed with security forces in Madagascar’s capital Saturday, as demonstrations over chronic power and water shortages entered their third day, killing at least five people and triggering widespread looting, Le Monde reported.
On Saturday, demonstrators filled the streets of the capital of Antananarivo, carrying placards reading “We are poor, angry and unhappy” and “Madagascar is ours,” while security forces blocked their attempt to march toward the city center.
The youth-led protests began Thursday, a day after authorities banned a planned demonstration over ongoing water and power cuts in the impoverished country. But the protests quickly devolved into violence as police used rubber bullets and tear gas, while students and young workers blocked roads in the capital with rocks and burning tires.
There were reports of looting of shops and attacks on banks. Local media said a number of cable car stations were set ablaze and three homes belonging to politicians allied with President Andry Rajoelina were attacked.
Authorities later imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew to restore order, Al Jazeera added.
In an effort to appease protesters, Rajoelina announced the dismissal of his energy minister “for not doing his job” late last week. Even so, the president branded the protests as an attempted “coup d’état.”
Despite the minister’s removal, protest organizers have called for demonstrations to continue and accused security forces of excessive force and a failure to prevent looting, Africanews wrote.
Madagascar, a nation of about 30 million people, remains mired in poverty, with the World Bank estimating that 75 percent of the population was living below the poverty line in 2022.
DISCOVERIES
Tough Blood
Lizards exposed to lead often have impaired balance, speed, and endurance.
However, a new study found that there might be some exceptions.
Researchers have discovered that brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei) in New Orleans have the highest blood-lead levels ever recorded in a vertebrate, exceeding all previously reported data for fish, amphibians, birds, reptiles, and mammals.
“What’s astonishing is that these lizards aren’t just surviving, they’re thriving with a lead burden that would be catastrophic for most other animals,” study author Alex Gunderson said in a statement.
Lead is a pervasive environmental pollutant with serious health implications, particularly in urban areas. The study highlighted the enduring legacy of lead contamination in New Orleans and the complicated ways organisms have adapted, or failed to, to the polluted environment.
For the study, researchers tested the creatures’ balance, sprint speed, and endurance to see how lizards were affected. They found that lizards are capable of withstanding lead levels about 10 times higher than the already extreme concentrations found in the field before starting to show declines in performance.
“These animals are performing at full capacity despite record-setting lead levels, making them one of the most, if not the most, lead-tolerant animals known to science,” study author Annelise Blanchette said in the statement.
When researchers examined the animals’ brain and liver tissue transcriptomes, they found only minor impacts from lead exposure. However, several genes linked to metal ion regulation and oxygen transport showed alterations.
The study results raise new questions about how these reptiles manage to endure such toxic exposure, and whether those mechanisms might one day help guide therapies for humans and other species.
“We need to reevaluate what we know about toxicity thresholds in vertebrates,” Gunderson said. “If we can figure out what’s protecting them, we might uncover strategies that could help mitigate heavy metal poisoning in people and other species.”