Holding It Together
NEED TO KNOW
Holding It Together
IRAQ
Those who remember the years of chaos and instability that plagued Iraq after the US-led invasion of 2003 might find it astonishing that today, the country is perhaps one of the most stable in the Middle East.
Part of that is due to the high price of oil in recent years and how that has helped smooth over some social divisions. Meanwhile, the Artawi oil field in southern Iraq is expecting a boom, wrote Bahrain-based Iraqi News. And energy giant BP and Iraqi leaders recently sealed a deal to expand production of crude.
Under Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani, the governing Shiite Coordination Framework (SCF) has consolidated power in opposition to Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, explained Reuters, and asserted its dominance over the Sunni Muslim and Kurdish political forces who represent the second- and third-largest communities in the country.
This balancing act is not perfect. The SCF is still deeply divided, noted the French Research Center on Iraq. But it is enough given how the US still has troops deployed in Iraq, offending many Iraqis who want them to leave, Al Arabiya News reported.
The SCF has also avoided trouble by not becoming too involved in the regional crisis following Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Iraqi officials have persuaded local militias to stop their attacks against Israel, for instance, Haaretz reported. They have also curbed oil exports to Syria after the ousting of Syrian President Bashar Assad, waiting to see if the rebel group that managed this and took over in the aftermath are radical jihadists, added OilPrice.com.
Now, however, that stability faces a test when voters elect a new parliament in October 2025, wrote World Politics Review.
To start with, the first comprehensive census in years will likely change the makeup of parliament, Foreign Policy magazine wrote. Previous census numbers undercounted Kurds and other minorities, meaning those groups will likely gain more power under the new count. But these changes could also upset the delicate balance that now holds between Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds.
Also, the new parliament will vote on three contentious laws that current lawmakers have put aside, wrote Shafaq News. Each one could unravel the uneasy truce between Iraqi factions.
One involves a Shiite-backed proposal to change marriage, divorce, inheritance, and child custody laws. Critics have said that it would give Muslim clerics too much power over decisions affecting the family instead of the courts. It could also lower the age of marriage for females to 9 years old. A second backed by Sunnis would grant amnesty to alleged terrorists, including potentially Islamic State members. A third would restore property stolen from Kurds before Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was brought down in 2003.
Meanwhile, Iraq might get dragged into the vacuum left by the diminished power of Iranian proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza – despite its best attempts to stay out of region-wide fights, says the Economist.
Iran sponsors paramilitary forces like al-Nujaba under its direct command, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), another umbrella of militias that Iran pays and supplies, the magazine added, noting that the latter has set off dozens of rockets and drones at Israel and attacked American bases. “Israel’s killing of Hamas and Hezbollah commanders has left a vacuum in Arab leadership of the axis,” it added. “Some Iraqi militiamen might be eager to fill it.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
The Standoff
SOUTH KOREA
Rival protests erupted in Seoul over the weekend as thousands of South Koreans demanded either the arrest or exoneration of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol, whose brief declaration of martial law in December plunged the country into political chaos, the Hill reported.
The protests come as an arrest warrant for Yoon on insurrection charges is set to expire at midnight on Monday, intensifying a standoff that has triggered a deep political divide and left the nation in turmoil.
Anti-Yoon protesters, led by labor unions, marched through heavy snow near the presidential residence, chanting for Yoon’s arrest and accusing him of violating the constitution, the Associated Press wrote.
Meanwhile, pro-Yoon supporters rallied nearby, calling his impeachment a politically driven attack and warning that his detention could destabilize South Korea’s alliances with the United States and Japan, Agence France-Presse noted.
Police erected barricades and barbed wire around Yoon’s residence as the rival groups clashed verbally, with occasional scuffles leading to arrests and injuries.
Lawmakers impeached Yoon last month after the conservative leader briefly declared martial law on Dec. 3, marking the first such decree in South Korea since 1980.
The move sparked nationwide outrage and swift parliamentary intervention to block the decree. Lawmakers accused Yoon of insurrection – a crime that carries severe penalties, including the death penalty – and demanded his accountability.
But the embattled leader, now confined to his residence and protected by loyal security forces, has refused to step down, saying he will fight “to the very end.”
Efforts to execute the arrest warrant faltered Friday after a dramatic six-hour standoff between investigators and Yoon’s guards.
Park Chong-jun, Yoon’s chief of security, refused to cooperate with the warrant, citing legal ambiguities and defending the security service’s 60-year history of nonpartisan service, according to Reuters.
Acting President Choi Sang-mok has been urged to intervene, but his response has remained cautious.
The constitutional court is scheduled to begin Yoon’s impeachment trial on Jan. 14, which could determine his political fate.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit South Korea on Monday, emphasizing the need for stability in the face of this escalating political crisis.
Cleaning House
SYRIA
Syria’s new Islamist-led government is facing scrutiny for controversial curriculum changes, crackdowns on Assad loyalists, and delays in organizing a national dialogue conference, raising concerns about transparency and inclusivity as the country rebuilds following the deposing of President Bashar Assad last month, Reuters reported.
Since seizing control in December, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has established a caretaker government to manage basic services until March 1.
Last week, the transitional government unveiled a revised school curriculum emphasizing an Islamic perspective and erasing references to the Assad regime, the BBC added.
Changes included replacing the phrase “Defending the nation” with “Defending Allah,” omitting evolution and the Big Bang theory, as well as sidelining historical figures, such as Queen Zenobia of the ancient pre-Syrian Palymene empire.
Education Minister Nazir al-Qadri defended the revisions, claiming they target only glorification of the Assad family and “inaccuracies” in Islamic teachings. While some Syrians have welcomed the changes, others countered that these unilateral actions undermine inclusivity.
Critics and civil society advocates described the changes as a sign that the voices of Syria’s groups and communities are not being heard.
The curriculum controversy comes as Syria’s new government intensified efforts to consolidate power by cracking down on Assad loyalists.
On Thursday, security forces led by HTS detained more than 100 militia members and former Assad soldiers during raids in Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, according to the Associated Press.
The operation involved door-to-door searches, weapon confiscations, and identity checks, with residents reporting mixed reactions. HTS has established voluntary disarmament centers nationwide since Assad fled to Russia on Dec. 8, but concerns linger about heavy-handed tactics and the government’s ability to ensure stability.
Meanwhile, dozens of protesters gathered in the southern city of Douma to demand answers about the 2013 abduction of four prominent activists, including human rights advocate Razan Zaitouneh, the Voice of America noted.
Demonstrators called for transparent investigations and justice, while the transitional government has remained neutral regarding allegations against various armed groups in the disappearance of activist figures.
Ahmed Sharaa, head of HTS, has promised an inclusive political process to draft a constitution within three years, followed by elections in four years.
But the new government has yet to finalize plans for a highly anticipated national dialogue conference meant to chart the country’s post-Assad future. The conference, a key pledge of the HTS-led government, aims to bring together 1,200 delegates from Syria’s religious, ethnic, and political spectrum to address issues, such as parliamentary suspension and drafting a new constitution.
Despite ongoing pledges, opposition figures remain skeptical.
Bassam Al-Kuwatli, president of the Syrian Liberal Party, criticized HTS’s lack of urgency in sharing power, saying the new government “is still a military group that won power and doesn’t feel a need yet to share that power.”
Of Monsters and Devils
AUSTRIA
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer announced his resignation over the weekend after coalition talks between the country’s centrist parties collapsed, deepening political uncertainty and strengthening the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), Politico reported.
Nehammer, who also serves as leader of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), said “long and honest” negotiations with the center-left Social Democrats (SPÖ) had failed, citing irreconcilable differences on economic policies.
Talks with the liberal NEOS party had already broken down the previous day over disagreements on budgetary reforms and competitiveness.
Austrian parties began coalition talks in November with the goal of forming a government that could exclude the FPÖ, known for its Eurosceptic and Russia-friendly positions.
The far-right party won 30 percent of the vote in the September parliamentary elections, marking the first time in its history that it secured the top position.
Despite its electoral success, the FPÖ has been blocked from forming a government, with major parties refusing to collaborate with its leader, Herbert Kickl.
The far-right party has criticized the centrist bloc’s inability to govern, calling the coalition attempt a “political monstrosity.”
Nehammer pledged an “orderly transition,” and the ÖVP has reportedly appointed its secretary-general, Christian Stocker, as interim leader.
Observers noted that President Alexander Van der Bellen may now appoint a caretaker government to address Austria’s pressing challenges, including a recession and a budget deficit of 3.7 percent of the gross domestic product, Al Jazeera added.
DISCOVERIES
A Real Effort
It’s going to take literal blood, sweat, and tears to live on Mars.
A new study proposed that future colonizers will need to rely on AstroCrete to build on the red planet, a material made up of bodily fluids and Martian soil.
“Although it is a bit strange, blood can be utilized to create strong concrete or bricks for onsite construction on Mars,” a team of researchers at Iran’s Kharazmi University wrote in their paper.
The researchers analyzed eleven potential Martian construction materials, settling on a mix of regolith (Martian soil) and human serum albumin (HAS), a protein found in blood plasma, as a standout option. They claimed that this concoction can be further fortified with urea – a byproduct of sweat, tears, and urine, Popular Science explained.
The team explained that a single astronaut could produce enough HAS in about 72 weeks to construct a single-occupancy habitat, and it can also be 3D-printed on-site. The material also sidesteps Mars’ water scarcity, requiring none to mix.
“The goal would be to establish a self-sustaining city (self-sufficient megabase) on the surface of Mars, accommodating at least a million people,” they added, as reported by Universe Today.
AstroCrete is not particularly new: The odd material was first proposed in a 2021 paper by University of Manchester researchers.
“Scientists have been trying to develop viable technologies to produce concrete-like materials on the surface of Mars, but we never stopped to think that the answer might be inside us all along,” Aled Roberts, co-author of the 2021 study, said in a press release.
But AstroCrete isn’t the only contender. Sulfur-based concrete, crafted from Martian sulfur deposits, also shows promise. This material resists corrosion and performs well in Mars’ acidic and salty environments.
While these ideas might seem like science fiction, the quest to inhabit Mars demands ingenuity.
The novel approaches will also help in severely cutting costs in assembling resources on Earth and delivering them off-world, according to Futurism.