Second Thoughts
NEED TO KNOW
Second Thoughts
BELARUS
Almost five years ago, Belarus held presidential elections that some believe were the most consequential elections in the country’s history.
Then, the former Soviet republic erupted into weeks of wide-ranging protests over the results of a fraudulent election that gave Alexander Lukashenko his sixth term in office.
But what the protests also did was “disrupt the liberalizing trend that had progressed in domestic politics and civil society for half a decade before 2020 … (and) led to an unprecedented crisis in Belarus’ relations with the West,” wrote the Jamestown Foundation.
And now, it says, change is on the distant horizon again.
That won’t impact the current election, however. When Belarussians go to the polls on Jan. 26, it’s clear that Lukashenko will win his seventh term. To wit, there are no real opposition candidates in the race: All the candidates running against the incumbent have expressed support for Lukashenko.
Second, few are expecting anything like the protests of five years ago – much of the opposition is in jail or in exile abroad. Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya even told her allies to stay home, arguing that they shouldn’t expend energy on a “ritual” preordained to rubberstamp the autocrat, Reuters wrote.
Meanwhile, the repression against opponents continues, with more than 1,200 political prisoners in detention, some opposition parties banned, and independent journalists jailed or in exile. Lukashenko has also warned that he would shut down the Internet if protesters took to the streets, noted the Kyiv Independent.
At the same time, Belarus is firmly and tightly ensconced into Russia’s orbit, hosting Russian nukes, assisting in the war in Ukraine with weapons and logistics, and, most recently, pledging to host Russia’s new “Oreshnik” intermediate-range hypersonic missile on its territory.
Russia has also pledged to quash any “disorder” during the elections in Belarus.
All this is part of the Kremlin’s endgame “to de facto annex Belarus by formalizing the Union State as a Russian-dominated federated government that grants Moscow dominant power over most if not all aspects of Belarusian governance,” wrote the Institute for the Study of War recently.
However, things might be changing anyway. Analysts say the Belarussian president may be trying to reset the country’s relationship with the West.
Last fall, Lukashenko released more than 200 people jailed for participating in anti-government protests that half-decade ago. Some say that is a move to get US and European sanctions removed.
“The unusual move is likely a signal to the West that Minsk is uncomfortable about the prospect of permanent dependence on Moscow,” wrote Carnegie Politika. “This is Belarus’s way of sending a signal, and there can only be one possible addressee: the West … Alexander Lukashenko’s regime may be benefiting from the ongoing war in Ukraine, but he still wants to prepare for a less rosy future.”
The possible shift echoes one a decade ago, when Lukashenko began making efforts to distance Belarus from Russia and draw closer to the West, mainly to help his country’s economy. That move ended after the protests of 2020 when he realized he needed Russia to maintain power.
Analysts say it’s unlikely the West will respond to the prisoner release, especially as Belarus is so involved with Russia and its war on Ukraine. Others say the West shouldn’t overstate the move.
Still, Western leaders have been watching the developments with interest but say releasing a small number of low-profile figures isn’t enough. Eastern European leaders are even more opposed to reversing policies toward Belarus, remembering how Lukashenko weaponized migration against Poland.
“Whenever elections in Belarus approach, the Lukashenko regime takes superficial steps, freeing a few political prisoners to create an illusion of cooperation with the West,” said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. “I hope we won’t fall for it this time.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
The Missing Half
AFGHANISTAN
The International Criminal Court (ICC) will seek arrest warrants for senior Afghani Taliban leaders accused of persecuting women “on gender grounds,” the court’s chief prosecutor announced Thursday, calling the extreme restrictions on women’s work, education, and liberty “a crime against humanity,” France 24 reported.
ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan said there were reasonable grounds to suspect that Taliban Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and Chief Justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani “bear criminal responsibility for the crime against humanity of persecution on gender grounds.”
He alleged that Afghan women, girls, and members of the LGBTQ community were facing “an unprecedented, unconscionable, and ongoing persecution” by the Taliban since they took control in 2021.
While some say the current Taliban government has established a “softer” regime compared with the Taliban government that ruled between 1996 and 2001, the Taliban has almost completely erased women from public life.
Akhundzada banned all 20 million women from attending secondary school and university – even amid internal disagreement among Taliban officials, Reuters reported.
Most women are banned from work – including as midwives, and from visiting public parks, gyms, and baths. They cannot sing or recite poetry in public and are forbidden from traveling long distances unless chaperoned by a male.
In 2022, Akhundzada also issued a diktat ordering women to be fully covered in public – including their faces.
The international court will now consider Khan’s request with a decision expected in the coming weeks.
The chief prosecutor also said he would try to issue other warrants against Taliban officials.
The Taliban government seeks formal diplomatic recognition internationally but Islamic scholars and Western diplomats have said that few states will grant such status unless they change their policies toward women. Even so, some such as Russia have been making overtures.
While the Taliban insist that women’s rights are guaranteed according to Islamic law, the Taliban’s acting deputy foreign minister, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, recently asked authorities to open high schools for Afghan girls in an attempt to dampen disapproval and encourage international recognition of the Taliban, NBC News reported. He also called the closure, “an injustice.” Reuters noted.
Competing Priorities
ITALY
Italy’s government came under fire this week for releasing a Libyan warlord wanted by the International Court of Justice (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity, citing procedural errors in his arrest, even as critics pointed to Italian dependence on Libyan cooperation to control migrant flows, Politico reported.
On Sunday, Italian police arrested Ossama Anjiem, head of Libya’s judicial police, in Turin on an ICC warrant.
Anjiem – also known as Ossama al-Masri – is accused of overseeing murder, torture, rape, and other abuses in Libya’s notorious Mitiga prison since 2015.
Despite the seriousness of the charges, an Italian appeals court ordered his release Tuesday, saying that the Justice Ministry had not been consulted prior to his detention. Anjiem was promptly flown back to Tripoli on an Italian government plane.
Human rights groups swiftly condemned the decision, with Amnesty International describing it a “stunning blow to victims, survivors … and a missed opportunity to break the cycle of impunity in Libya,” according to the Associated Press.
Opposition politicians accused the government of failing to uphold Italy’s obligations under the Rome Statute, which it helped to create and establish the ICC.
Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi also called Meloni’s administration “hypocritical,” noting its public stance against human trafficking while releasing a figure accused of gross human rights violations.
The ICC, angry at the release, according to AP, said Italy had failed to inform the ICC of the court’s decision to release the suspect as required, and stressed that all member states are required to cooperate with its prosecutions.
Critics highlighted Italy’s reliance on the Libyan government to control migration flows across the Mediterranean, with some suggesting the release was a calculated move to protect this cooperation.
Last year, irregular boat landings dropped by more than 60 percent following Meloni’s efforts to secure agreements with North African governments.
Thai Do
THAILAND
Hundreds of same-sex couples got married in Thailand on Thursday after the country became the first in Southeast Asia to recognize marriage equality in a landmark bill, CNN reported.
The new legislation, passed by parliament in June, allows same-sex couples to register their marriage with full legal, financial, medical, adoption, and inheritance rights.
Celebrations erupted nationwide and a mass wedding took place at the Siam Paragon shopping center in Bangkok on Thursday. The event was organized with Bangkok Pride and local authorities, and at least 200 couples signed up to get married.
The bill was written into law by Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn following decades of campaigning from activists. The fight for marriage equality in Thailand, despite the country’s social openness to the LGBTQ community, has been hindered by the turbulent political scene, including a military coup in 2014, according to NPR.
This new bill ensured equal rights for same-sex couples in bureaucratic processes such as adoption procedures and marriage visas, helping to reunite families and strengthen their legal and social standing.
“This marriage equality law marks the beginning of Thai society’s greater awareness of gender diversity, and our embrace of everyone regardless of sexual orientation, race, or religion – our affirmation that everyone is entitled to equal rights and dignity,” Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said in a recorded message that was played at the event.
Despite the win for the LGBTQ community, analysts say Thailand may be the last Asian jurisdiction to recognize same-sex marriage for a while. Thailand is also the third in Asia to recognize same-sex marriage, according to CNN.
And in Thailand, there are limits to the social acceptance of the community. Last February, the Thai parliament rejected a proposed gender recognition bill.
Activists want to get it back on the political agenda to help recognize an estimated 314,000 trans people in the country, according to the Asia Pacific Transgender Network.
DISCOVERIES
Surfing the Storm
When it comes to long-distance travel, bats are taking their cues from birds and riding the storm.
A new study from the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior discovered that noctule bats coordinate their spring migrations across Europe by surfing warm storm fronts to save energy.
Researchers did this by tracking for three years the journeys of 71 female bats flying from northeast Switzerland to destinations such as Germany and Poland.
They used ultra-lightweight, intelligent tags to obtain detailed information, including the animal’s activity and surrounding air temperature, which was then transmitted via a novel long-range network.
“The sensor data (is) amazing!” lead author Edward Hurme said in a statement. “We don’t just see the path that bats took, we also see what they experienced in the environment as they migrated.”
Hurme and his colleagues observed that the animals traveled up to 238 miles in a single night – far surpassing previous records – and did so in a hopping pattern, which means they alternated long flights with rest stops, to eat.
The team also noticed a peculiar behavior on certain nights that Hurme described as “an explosion of departures that looked like bat fireworks.”
When they analyzed weather data, they found that the bats migrated en masse ahead of approaching storm fronts, reported Smithsonian Magazine.
The bats used warm tailwinds from these storm fronts to conserve energy during their flights – a behavior previously observed only in birds.
The tags’ sensors confirmed that bats expended less energy while “surfing” storm fronts, taking advantage of environmental wind conditions to power their long-haul flights.
“This was actually a big surprise,” said Hurme. “We had some clue that bats were responding to good wind conditions, but we didn’t think that there was this connection to storms.”
The authors explained that understanding these migration patterns can help in conservation.
Bats face significant threats from wind turbines and predicting these patterns could help wind farms reduce their activity on high-risk nights.