The Middle Child: Jordan Teeters in Regional Upheaval
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The Middle Child: Jordan Teeters in Regional Upheaval
JORDAN
Jordan has long been the middle child in the Middle East, mostly peaceful, overlooked, and struggling to find its place in the family. But with recent and massive political upheaval and turmoil in Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Gaza and the West Bank, many now wonder if the country’s role as a regional stabilizer is at risk.
Analysts believe it is.
“Jordan remains on the precipice,” wrote Lancaster University professor Simon Mabon in the Conversation. “Bringing peace to Gaza is a necessary step in reducing tensions in the Hashemite kingdom, but it alone will probably be insufficient.”
Last fall, the pro-Hamas Islamic Action Front, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, scored big in the Hashemite kingdom’s elections, winning 31 out of 138 seats in parliament. It was the highest tally of any party and also the party’s own biggest gains in 35 years. A big reason for its support, say analysts, was the war next door between Israel and Hamas.
Five months later, Jordan’s King Abdullah II was backed into a corner by the US to accept millions of Palestinians who US President Donald Trump wants to displace from Gaza.
King Abdullah said no. He had no choice, say analysts – such a move would be an “existential threat” to the country.
Even though the king’s refusal risks $1.72 billion in US aid Jordan receives from the US annually, it did much to dispel the public anger in Jordan, where many have accused the king and the government of being lackeys of Israel and failing to provide enough aid to Gaza.
But even as Jordan worries about Gaza, the real “existential threat” to Jordan is likely to come from the West Bank, say analysts.
Since the war broke out between Israel and Hamas in 2023, the West Bank has been growing increasingly violent. In February, around 40,000 Palestinians fled their homes due to Israel military operations there, the largest displacement in decades.
Jordanians believe many more will flee, likely headed to Jordan. Many of those already hold Jordanian passports valid as travel documents because they are stateless.
That worries Jordanians, who are a minority in their country, which has seen tensions between Jordanians and the Palestinians it has accepted into the country since 1948: Then, most of the 750,000 displaced Palestinians went to Jordan after being expelled by Israel. That exodus tripled the country’s population and fundamentally altered the country’s identity, analysts say.
Over the years, more Palestinians emigrated to Jordan. As a result, about half to two-thirds of Jordan’s population of 11 million people are of Palestinian origin.
Meanwhile, over the past few decades, Jordan has accepted Iraqis fleeing the various Gulf wars and Syrians fleeing civil war after 2011: Jordan hosts more than 650,000 registered Syrian refugees, but some believe there are another 750,000 unregistered Syrian nationals in the country.
That’s a lot for Jordan, an aid-dependent country with a weak economy, to handle, wrote the Arab Center Washington DC think tank.
For Jordan to take in millions more would not only deeply affect the demographics of the country and its national identity, but could also threaten it politically and economically, analysts say.
It would likely fuel extremism and turn Jordan into launchpads for Palestinian attacks on Israel, which would likely mean war with Israel and possibly a regional war, analysts said.
And it would be the end of the kingdom, analysts say.
“A large-scale displacement of Gazans to Jordan is going to be the death knell for the Hashemite monarchy in Jordan,” Andreas Krieg, assistant professor at King’s College in London told Middle East Eye. “This could lead to large-scale protests and an Arab Spring-type revolt against the government and the monarchy.”
Analysts say the worst-case scenario is a push by Israeli hardliners to annex the West Bank, expel Palestinians, and turn Jordan into Palestine. The US has expressed openness to this possibility, which would be the end of the 1994 treaty establishing relations between Jordan and Israel, which includes a clause banning the mass transfer of populations.
“It is no longer simply rhetoric and a fringe idea in Israeli politics,” wrote Chatham House, a United Kingdom-based think tank. But “annexation and the population transfer that follows would pose a direct security threat to Jordan – one that the kingdom has characterized as an Israeli declaration of war.”
Some worry that as a result, Jordan is already growing more unstable, especially with the growing power of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is moving to capitalize on the situation, especially in light of the Islamist takeover in Syria after the ousting of the country’s longtime dictator Bashar Assad with the help of Jordanian fighters.
As Hassan Abu Haniyeh, a Jordan-based expert on the kingdom’s Islamists, told the Economist: “Islamists across Jordan are asking, ‘If they can take over, why not us?’.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
A Race of One: Turkey Arrests President’s Rival
TURKEY
Turkish authorities carried out a series of arrests this week, including the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu – a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan – in a move that sparked protests and raised concerns over further democratic backsliding in the country, the BBC reported.
On Wednesday, police arrested İmamoğlu along with more than 100 others on various charges, including corruption and aiding terrorist groups. İmamoğlu’s detention comes just ahead of a primary election Sunday by Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), where İmamoğlu was expected to become its presidential contender in the 2028 elections.
On Thursday, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that authorities had also detained 37 people for allegedly posting “provocative” content on social media, which officials classified as “incitement to commit a crime.”
Critics, including CHP supporters, condemned the detentions as a politically motivated “coup,” which the government rejected. Protests broke out in the capital, Ankara, as well as in Istanbul, where the pro-Erdoğan governor imposed a four-day ban on demonstrations.
A message posted on İmamoğlu’s X account on Thursday urged Turkey to “stand against this evil as a nation,” calling on members of the judiciary and Erdoğan’s party to fight injustice. His office also called for continued demonstrations outside the municipal hall.
The arrests come amid an ongoing nationwide crackdown that has targeted opposition politicians, journalists, and public figures in recent months.
İmamoğlu, who secured a second term as Istanbul’s mayor in 2024 when the CHP won key local elections there and in Ankara, has emerged as a major political threat to Erdoğan. His victory last year was a significant blow to the president, who began his own political career as Istanbul’s mayor.
Analysts warned that İmamoğlu’s arrest could exacerbate Turkey’s economic troubles. On Wednesday, Turkish markets experienced the world’s sharpest decline, with the lira hitting a record low against the dollar, CNBC wrote.
Inflation remains a pressing issue, reaching approximately 39 percent in February.
Erdoğan, who has been in power for 22 years as prime minister and president, is constitutionally barred from running for another term unless he amends the constitution or calls early elections, CNN noted.
However, Soner Cagaptay, a Turkish historian and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told CNBC that polling suggests that İmamoğlu, if not disqualified, would defeat Erdogan “by wide margins” in an early vote.
Critics Say New Military Law Threatens Indonesia’s Democracy
INDONESIA
The Indonesian legislature passed a revision of its military law to allow military officers to serve in additional government posts without having to first resign or retire, a move that set off concern by rights groups and protests Thursday, the Associated Press reported.
The revision changes a 2004 law that reduced the military’s presence in civilian affairs and allowed active duty military officers to serve in government only when related to security, defense, or intelligence.
Before the revision, active duty military personnel were only permitted to serve in 10 civilian institutions, including the Ministry of Defense and the National Intelligence Agency. The new law increases that number to 14 including the Attorney General’s Office, the Supreme Court, and the Coordinating Ministry for Political and Security Affairs.
The law also introduces a new clause granting the president the authority to assign military personnel to other ministries as needed.
Protests broke out on Thursday in the capital Jakarta. Since Wednesday, hundreds of pro-democracy demonstrators have been camping outside parliament to protest the changes. More protests are expected this week.
Critics said the new measure is dangerous to Indonesia’s young democracy and risks returning the country to the 1967-1998 “New Order” era of President Suharto’s military dictatorship, in which the government was led by generals, according to Reuters.
Critics worry that greater involvement by the military in civilian roles means restoring the “dual function” the army had under Suharto’s dictatorship, when the military held reserved seats in the legislature, and officers occupied numerous civilian positions, from district chiefs to cabinet ministers.
This system transformed the armed forces into a political instrument, allowing Suharto to suppress his opponents once he became president, analysts said.
Another major criticism is that the new law was discussed in secret, with little public input, and in an accelerated process.
Indonesia’s Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, a former army general, defended the law, saying it was properly considered and necessary to enhance military effectiveness amid geopolitical shifts and technological advancements that could lead to both “conventional and non-conventional conflicts.”
All eight political parties in parliament supported the revision pushed by President Prabowo Subianto – a former special forces commander and Suharto’s son-in-law – who has been expanding the military’s involvement in public areas since he took office in October, the BBC noted.
Indonesian rights group, Imparsial, found nearly 2,600 active-duty officers in civilian roles even before the law was revised.
Deadly Nightclub Fire in North Macedonia Sparks Corruption Protests
NORTH MACEDONIA
Authorities in North Macedonia shut down dozens of clubs and entertainment venues over license violations this week following a fire in a nightclub that killed 59 people over the weekend, even as protests spread across the country, the Associated Press reported.
Thousands of people protested in the eastern town of Kočani on Wednesday, demanding justice and action against misconduct following the deadly fire at the town’s Pulse nightclub early Sunday. Protesters say the club’s license was obtained illegally and that corruption allowed the makeshift venue – a converted carpet warehouse – to operate without proper safety measures, the Guardian noted.
Meanwhile, government officials said on Wednesday that they moved aggressively to inspect clubs’ licenses, finding that fewer than half of all of the 50 establishments inspected had valid documents.
The fire broke out during a pyrotechnic display at the indoor venue that was later found to have not enough emergency exits and fire extinguishers, allowed overcrowding, and restricted access for emergency vehicles.
More than 150 people were injured from burns, smoke inhalation, and during a stampede toward the club’s single exit.
Police have detained 16 people after questioning more than 70 individuals.
The country declared a week of national mourning.
DISCOVERIES
Good Neighbors
Tigers in India are making a comeback.
Despite a growing population and increasing pressure on their habitats, new research has found that the number of tigers there is rising thanks to a combination of ecological restoration, economic initiatives, and political stability.
And then there is the reverence factor.
Tigers are deeply revered in India due to their cultural, religious, and mythological significance: They represent strength, power, and beauty, and are seen as protectors of good against evil. The Hindu Goddess Durga is depicted as riding a tiger.
As a result, India has constructed protected reserves and multi-use landscapes to ensure the safety of both people and tigers.
“If coexistence no longer works, the reserves provide a fallback option − ensuring that tigers are not at risk of extinction,” said study co-author Ninad Mungi.
Thanks to this approach, the tiger population has increased by 30 percent over the past two decades. Now a new study published by Aarhus University has found that about 3,700 tigers live in India, accounting for 75 percent of the world’s wild tiger population.
According to the researchers, the mix of people’s lifestyles, economic conditions, and cultural attitudes has allowed people and tigers to successfully coexist.
Tigers are most likely to stay in prosperous regions, close to reserves, where there is abundant prey and suitable habitats, and relatively low human population density.
Meanwhile, tiger populations remain low in rural areas with extreme poverty, where growing human populations and limited space have led to increased conflicts over forest resources.
Certain policies have encouraged a friendlier coexistence, too.
If farmers lose cattle to a tiger attack they receive financial compensation from the government. Similarly, if a person is killed by a tiger, the government compensates the family. However, attacks on humans are rare and when they happen, the tiger is relocated to a reserve or zoo.
“A significant gain can be achieved by going the extra mile and fostering a culture of coexistence beyond protected areas,” said Mungi, highlighting how India’s approach might provide insight into other areas of the world struggling to coexist with animal predators.