Coup Politics: In Thailand, There is Just No Pleasing the Military
NEED TO KNOW
Coup Politics: In Thailand, There is Just No Pleasing the Military
THAILAND
On July 1, Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, while it considered a petition by a few dozen senators to remove her from office. The prime minister had become embroiled in a scandal rocking the country over a leaked phone call with the former leader of Cambodia, as a border conflict between the two countries was heating up.
The court’s move followed street protests calling for her ouster and also the defection of the second-largest party in her governing coalition, leaving her administration in danger of collapse.
Now, analysts say that not only is the prime minister on her way out, but that the country is on the verge of a coup – one more in a nation that has seen a dozen within the past century.
“The military has launched coups so many times that it has developed what many experts as a “coup culture” in which the more coups happen, the more they create an idea in the military, passed down to younger officers, in which coups are acceptable means of handling virtually any major challenges in the country,” wrote the Council on Foreign Relations.
This time, as in the past two military putsches, it would impact the mighty Shinawatra family. Paetongtarn’s father, Thaksin Shinawatra, a wealthy businessman of the populist Pheu Thai party, was removed from the top job in a coup in 2006, having made enemies of the monarchy, the military, and the business community. Her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, was ousted by the courts in 2014 with a coup following two weeks later. Both putsches followed adverse court rulings, parliamentary gridlock, and protests demanding that the government resign, analysts said.
The current situation is following a similar script, wrote the Diplomat.
The roots of the current chaos are the result of the gridlocked politics of the past three years, analysts say. In 2023, the progressive Move Forward party, which sought to crack down on monopolies, reduce the power of the military, and reform the country’s Lèse-majesté laws that criminalize criticizing the monarchy, received the most votes in parliamentary elections but not enough to form a government. To sideline the progressives, the pro-military conservative parties made a deal with their devil – Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai party – to form a coalition.
As a result of this bargain, Srettha Thavisin became prime minister – before he was ousted last year. Now, it’s likely his successor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, will share the same fate.
Her governing coalition began to splinter after the departure of the second-largest party in her governing coalition, the Bhumjaithai party.
At the same time, the country’s long-running border dispute with Cambodia ignited into open warfare after the killing of a Cambodian soldier in May by the Thai army.
Paetongtarn tried to calm the conflict by calling Hun Sen, the former Cambodian prime minister, who still wields tremendous power. In the call, which he leaked, Paetongtarn criticized a Thai general responsible for the border, while calling Hun Sen “uncle,” a term of respect in the region.
The country erupted with protesters hitting the streets, calling for her resignation, while lawmakers filed a petition with the Constitutional Court on ethical grounds to remove her.
The instability and political chaos are coming at a bad time for Thailand. The country is facing 36 percent tariffs from the US even as it grapples with high inflation, slowing growth, and declining tourism – a key sector – after the Chinese, its top tourists, have stayed away because of fears of being kidnapped.
One problem is that the power brokers in the country, the monarchy, the military, and the business leaders, who have been trying to sideline Thaksin for decades – he is currently on trial for insulting the monarchy – need his populist party, the second largest in the country, to create a government. The alternative, which is even more unthinkable to them, is the progressives.
That means anyone replacing the current prime minister would need support from either Pheu Thai or the People’s Party to hold a majority in the lower house.
Meanwhile, only the People’s Party wants new elections because it is convinced it would win, while the other parties in power – such as Pheu Thai or the pro-military and conservative parties, face a backlash at the polls from their supporters for doing deals with parties their supporters also abhor.
“Hence the worries about another coup,” wrote the Economist. “As things stand, the army will probably have to choose between patching things up with Thaksin’s populists or trying to work with (the People’s Party). It is reluctant to do either. A dozen coups d’état have not yet delivered a political system that makes the generals happy. That does not mean they will not try again.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Brazilian Protests Against Bolsonaro’s Prosecution, US Tariffs
BRAZIL
Thousands of supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro protested over the weekend across major cities in the country, furious that the conservative leader is being prosecuted for allegedly plotting a coup after losing the 2022 general election, Al Jazeera reported.
Protesters on Sunday in São Paulo, the capital Brasília, and Rio de Janeiro, clad in the usual Brazilian national team jerseys, carried both the Brazilian and the US flags and displayed banners thanking US President Donald Trump for his support for Bolsonaro, while demanding “amnesty” for those implicated in the alleged coup attempt, Reuters noted.
But on Friday, demonstrators took to the streets to condemn the heavy tariffs imposed by the US, reflecting widespread frustrations as Trump launched his latest tariff threats.
Last week, Trump announced 50 percent tariffs on numerous Brazilian goods, framing them as retaliation for the so-called “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro. The US also sanctioned Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes for his role in prosecuting the former leader, with the US move strongly criticized by Brazil.
Bolsonaro did not take part in the protests – he is under house arrest on weekends and holidays and prohibited from using social media – according to the precautionary measures ordered by de Moraes. However, he was seen in a video greeting the crowd in Rio de Janeiro, with the clip later posted on the social media account of his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, according to MercoPress.
On Monday, de Moraes issued a house arrest order for Bolsonaro for violating the ban on using social media that was imposed on him ahead of his trial for an alleged coup attempt, the Guardian added.
US officials criticized the ruling and warned that it would “hold accountable all those aiding and abetting sanctioned conduct.”
Bolsonaro is currently on trial for allegedly plotting a coup to overthrow Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after narrowly losing the 2022 presidential election, a plot that prosecutors say included murdering the current president and other top officials.
If convicted, Bolsonaro could face decades in prison. He has denied all accusations as politically motivated.
Starving Hostage Videos Spark Global Outcry, Pressure on Israel
ISRAEL / WEST BANK & GAZA
Two new videos showing emaciated Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip are sparking international condemnation and new pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire with Hamas, as Palestinian authorities report rising malnutrition-related deaths, the Associated Press reported.
Late last week, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad separately released footage of two Israeli hostages, 21-year-old Rom Braslavski and 24-year-old Evyatar David, appearing emaciated and weak from hunger. David is seen digging what he says is his own grave, while Braslavski said he “is at death’s door,” according to the BBC.
The individuals are two of the 251 hostages taken during the October 2023 attack that killed around 1,200 Israelis and sparked the war in Gaza. Israel responded with ground operations and airstrikes that have triggered a humanitarian crisis in the territory and killed more than 60,000 people, according to Gaza’s health ministry.
The footage sparked national and global outrage, with Israeli officials accusing Hamas of deliberately starving the captives. The Iran-backed group denied the allegations and said hostages receive the same amount of food as its fighters and also Gaza’s population.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy called the images “sickening.” French President Emmanuel Macron said the hostages’ release must precede any ceasefire and reiterated France’s push for a political solution based on a two-state framework.
The International Committee of the Red Cross said it was “appalled” by the videos and reiterated calls for access to hostages. Hamas’s military wing responded that it would cooperate with Red Cross aid delivery if Israel permanently opens humanitarian corridors and halts airstrikes during distribution, Sky News added.
The videos prompted thousands of Israelis to take to the streets over the weekend, demanding the release of the hostages and a ceasefire deal with Hamas.
Netanyahu asked the Red Cross to deliver aid to captives and vowed to bring them home. Even so, the Israeli leader said Monday he would convene the cabinet to instruct the military on achieving its war goals – defeating Hamas, releasing the hostages, and neutralizing Gaza as a threat.
Israeli media reported Monday that Netanyahu is seeking cabinet support for a plan to fully occupy the territory, despite objections from the Israeli Defense Force, the Times of Israel noted.
Analysts said the hostage videos, including recent images of starving people in Gaza, highlighted the worsening humanitarian condition in the Palestinian enclave nearly two years into the war.
In March, Israel blocked aid from entering the territory, citing that it benefited Hamas, despite criticism from its allies and the United Nations.
Although deliveries resumed in May, they remain sporadic, with reports of chaos and fatalities around aid distribution sites.
The Hamas-run health ministry said Monday that 175 Palestinians – 93 of them children – have died from starvation since the war began. International agencies have warned that famine is unfolding, with at least 1,000 people killed while attempting to access aid.
Israeli authorities, however, have insisted that there is “no famine caused by Israel,” and have blamed Hamas for the situation.
Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict and the famine-like conditions in the enclave have led to global criticism of Israel.
Last month, France, the United Kingdom, and Canada announced their intention to recognize Palestinian statehood. Israel condemned the move.
And last week, Slovenia became the first European Union member state to ban trading weapons with Israel over the conflict, Euronews reported.
Separately, Brazil withdrew as an observer from the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA), shortly after the country announced its plan to join South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, MercoPress wrote.
Suspects of Moscow Concert Hall Massacre Go on Trial
RUSSIA
Russia on Monday began trying 19 suspects accused of taking part in last year’s shooting attack at a Moscow concert hall that killed 149 people and wounded more than 600 in an incident that led to a severe crackdown on Central Asian migrants in the country, the Associated Press reported.
On March 22, 2024, four gunmen, all identified as citizens of the former Soviet republic of Tajikistan, stormed the Crocus City Hall on the outskirts of Moscow, opened fire on concertgoers awaiting a performance by a popular rock band, then set the venue ablaze, the Guardian wrote.
Islamic State-K, a branch of the terror group that is active in Central and South Asia, claimed responsibility for the attack. The four men, part of the 1.5 million Tajik people who have immigrated to Russia for work, were allegedly recruited and radicalized by the group.
On Monday, the four suspects and 15 other alleged accomplices appeared in the military court, along with about 30 survivors. The proceedings were not made public.
The attack fueled a fresh surge of anti-migrant sentiment across Russia, with Central Asian migrants facing a rise in police raids, detentions, and, sometimes, being forcibly conscripted to fight for Russia in Ukraine.
The massacre stunned Russia and was largely viewed as a devastating security breach, with the country’s security forces distracted by the war in Ukraine and efforts to silence anti-war opposition at home.
In the weeks before the attack, Western intelligence agencies had warned Russia of an imminent attack, warnings dismissed by the government.
DISCOVERIES
Octopi Illusions
Here’s an interesting trick: If an individual hides one hand and replaces it with a realistic rubber one, and both the real and the fake hand are touched simultaneously, most will feel touch in the fake hand and start to believe it is actually part of their body.
That’s true in humans but also in octopi.
That’s the conclusion of a new study, where researchers say that plainbody night octopi (Callistoctopus aspilosomatis) have a sense of body ownership and a certain awareness of their limbs’ position and movement in space.
Previous studies have found that mice and monkeys are also fooled by the illusion but this is the first recorded instance of a non-mammal creature falling for the trick, according to Science Magazine.
To carry out the study, researchers placed one octopus in a tank. Then, they put a fake arm made of a soft gel attached to an opaque partition over one of the octopus’s real arms, so the animal could see the fake limb but not the real one, according to Phys.org.
Scientists stroked both the real and fake with plastic calipers at the same time for about eight seconds. Then, they squeezed only the dummy arm with a pair of tweezers. The octopus reacted defensively, as if it had really felt the tweezers’ pinch.
The team repeated the test multiple times with five different octopi, and all exhibited defensive responses, such as attempting to flee, changing color or retracting their arms, all responses scientists would expect from the creatures if the real limb had been pinched.
The illusion disappeared in experiments where the real and fake limbs were not stroked simultaneously, were not stroked at all or the fake arm didn’t match the real one, explained the Smithsonian Magazine.
“These findings in the octopus, which has a complex nervous system that has developed independently of vertebrates, may be an important model for studying the evolution of the sense of body ownership,” wrote the researchers.
The results might also help the development of better robots and artificial intelligence systems or be useful to doctors researching neurological disorders in humans.