Of Victors and Spoils: Libya’s Oil Wealth Is Precluding Peace
NEED TO KNOW
Of Victors and Spoils: Libya’s Oil Wealth Is Precluding Peace
LIBYA
For years, Libya has existed in a stalemate, with two governments ruling over their respective fiefdoms that split the country, existing side-by-side in an uneasy and occasionally interrupted peace, a situation that has long benefited its two chiefs.
But in May, that stalemate was shattered after the killing of a powerful militia leader set off fury and bombs around Tripoli and allowed gunmen to seize control of half of the city.
The clashes, the worst in five years, have continued into August and left dozens dead in Tripoli and the western city of Zawiya, where rival militias have exchanged heavy gunfire in densely populated areas. In the south, fighting near Sabha underscored how fragile any central authority remains, with armed groups jostling for control of smuggling routes and oil infrastructure.
The renewed clashes also highlight how attempts to reset the country after the ouster of strongman Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 are failing spectacularly, say analysts. Now, many are worried that Libya will descend into a full-blown civil war again, threatening its population, destabilizing its neighbors, rattling international markets, and intensifying the international race for control of the country’s riches.
“In recent years the conflict (in Libya) has been frozen as the spoils have been divided among the various actors,” Tim Eaton of London-based think tank Chatham House, told Deutsche Welle. Over time, “these groups had been competing against one another to grab ever greater parts of the Libyan state.”
Now, he added, “There clearly is a threat of a slide into another bout of civil war.”
For years, the country has been split between the internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, led by business mogul Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah, and the eastern-based House of Representatives, which is aligned with military commander Khalifa Haftar and his family. The two factions control 80 percent of the country and all of its oil fields. Both sides claim legitimacy, and each is backed by a patchwork of militias and foreign patrons, all vying for turf.
But in May, as both camps vied for control over state enterprises and institutions, the leader of a powerful militia in Tripoli, Abdul Ghani al-Kikli, was killed, allegedly by Dbeibah’s supporters. Soon after, Dbeibah’s camp attacked another powerful militia, the Special Deterrence Forces, in an attempt by Dbeibah to flex his power and consolidate control. Instead, some say the move has put him on the verge of being overthrown, especially as the Haftars are likely to capitalize on the chaos to try to take Tripoli again. Already, their allied militias around the country are mobilizing.
Analysts say the Tripoli clashes exposed the uneasy truth at the heart of the Libya split: Even militias flying the same flag under the GNU will turn their guns on each other when turf, money, and influence are on the line.
Analysts say these are not ideological fights, but are focused on territory, contracts, and survival. They are also about oil, add analysts, noting that Libya is home to Africa’s largest proven oil reserves, which are at the heart of the battle for control of the country.
“The country’s vast resources make it a prize, but [they are] also a point of vulnerability,” said Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert at the Royal United Services Institute, in an interview with Reuters. “As long as competing leaders rely on militia alliances to stay in power, violence will flare.”
Foreign players are adding to volatility, too, in their attempt to get their share of the country’s riches, say analysts. For example, Haftar’s Libyan National Army has received arms, logistical support, and other aid from the United Arab Emirates and Russia, despite a United Nations arms embargo. Tripoli-based forces have had Turkish backing, including drones, advisers, and air defense systems.
The US and European countries are also in the mix, eying lucrative oil deals while also trying to pressure Libya to keep migrants from other African countries there (Europe) or take deportees (the US).
For years, observers have warned that the domestic and international jockeying for influence and control over Libya’s oil wealth will likely intensify unless eastern and western Libya are unified, something most doubt will occur in the short term.
That means that Libyans – who have been awaiting promised elections for four years – will continue to face violence as they struggle with soaring prices, electricity shortages, and few public services as the rulers in Tripoli and Benghazi steal their wealth.
In May, after the violence broke out in Tripoli, Libyan’s frustrations boiled over, and thousands of protesters hit the streets calling for Dbeibah to resign, even as a few of his ministers heeded that call.
But as Ben Fishman of the Washington Institute noted, the stalemate that arose in Libya after the 2020 ceasefire halted the civil war “enabled Haftar and Dbeibeh to remain in power with no intention of leaving.”
“Both have pledged to cede power to a new transitional government,” he said. “However, neither appears intent on yielding their status quo privileges. Those include using state assets to enhance their families’ wealth and to distribute it to their allies.”
“(Libya) should be a wealthy country,” he added. Instead, “Libya has become a kleptocracy.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Israel Calls Up Reservists For New Offensive – But No Response on Ceasefire Plan
ISRAEL / WEST BANK & GAZA
The Israeli military announced Wednesday that it will call up 60,000 reservists and extend the service of 20,000 others in the coming weeks as it prepares to seize Gaza City, the Financial Times reported.
Defense Minister Israel Katz authorized the plan, which the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said would bring the number of active reservists to 120,000, amid fierce international criticism of Israel’s 22-month war and just days after Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal.
It is part of a larger strategy approved by the security cabinet to push into Gaza City after weeks of operations in surrounding districts, such as Jabalia and Zeitoun.
Residents in those areas reported heavy shelling in recent days that drove more civilians to flee to the south of the Palestinian enclave. Restrictions on the distribution of aid and the destruction of infrastructure have deepened a hunger crisis that has left dozens of children dead from starvation.
Satellite imagery shows mass displacement around Gaza City, with tent camps emptied as families search for safety, according to NBC News.
Wednesday’s call-up comes as mediators await a formal response from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to a proposed deal that could suspend the fighting, at least temporarily.
On Monday, Hamas announced it had accepted a proposal for a 60-day truce during which Hamas would release some of the 50 remaining hostages – about 20 of whom are believed to be alive – in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Negotiations for a longer truce would continue following the exchange.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said Tuesday that “the ball is now in Israel’s court” and urged the Israeli government to accept the deal to avert worsening starvation and further civilian deaths.
For his part, Netanyahu has insisted that Israel will fight until Hamas is destroyed, claiming that achieving that total victory is the best way to secure the hostages’ release.
Netanyahu’s far-right allies have also rejected any partial deal, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir declaring that the prime minister “has no mandate” to pursue such an arrangement.
Along with calling up reserves to fight in Gaza, Israel also approved a controversial settlement plan in the West Bank. Located in the E1 area near Jerusalem, the proposed settlement would split the West Bank in two.
While Palestinians and rights groups warned that it would undermine prospects for a future Palestinian state, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich used that same claim to argue in favor of the settlement plan.
Notably, the approval comes ahead of a United Nations meeting next month, where Israel’s allies, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, and Australia are expected to back recognition of Palestinian statehood.
The war in Gaza began shortly after Hamas and its allies launched an attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which killed 1,200 people and saw more than 250 taken hostage.
In response, Israel launched an offensive that has left more than 62,000 Palestinians dead, according to Gaza health authorities.
The conflict has provoked mounting protests inside Israel, with hundreds of thousands demanding a deal to bring the hostages home, and has drawn growing international condemnation, including genocide allegations at the International Court of Justice.
Israel has repeatedly rejected those charges and maintains it is acting within international law.
Peru’s Court Suspends Boluarte Probe Until End of Term
PERU
Peru’s constitutional court this week halted investigations into President Dina Boluarte’s alleged misconduct until her term ends next July, citing her position as the country’s sitting president, Al Jazeera reported.
One of the main investigations into Boluarte centers on her response to the deadly protests that broke out in December 2022, just after she replaced then-President Pedro Castillo. Following his attempt to dissolve Congress – widely considered a self-coup – Castillo was impeached, removed from office, and imprisoned.
After his ouster, Castillo’s supporters led months of protests in support of the left-wing leader. Boluarte, who had served as Castillo’s vice president, responded by declaring a state of emergency.
Clashes followed between the police and protesters, killing more than 60 people and injuring hundreds more.
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights found that, in some parts of the country, “the disproportionate, indiscriminate, and lethal use of force was a major element of the State response to the protests,” and noted that many of the victims were not even protesting.
In 2023, Attorney General Patricia Benavides launched a probe into Boluarte and her ministers over the deadly clashes. Subsequently, she filed a constitutional complaint accusing the leader of causing deaths and injuries. Boluarte denied the accusations, saying the investigation was a distraction from Benavides’ own scandals.
Boluarte is also being investigated for alleged illicit enrichment during her administration after a search of her house and the presidential palace in 2024 revealed luxury objects considered too costly for her to afford with her legitimate sources of wealth.
The unpopular president was also probed for stepping away from her post while she underwent a rhinoplasty without informing Congress that she would temporarily delegate her duties, Reuters noted.
Boluarte has denied all these accusations and petitioned the constitutional court to stop the investigations until she leaves office on July 28, 2026. On Tuesday, the court granted her request, siding with an executive branch complaint against the prosecutor’s office and the judiciary.
With six presidents in the past seven years, Peru is undergoing a period of significant political unrest. Boluarte, who has faced pressure to resign since taking office, is just one of the many presidents to face criminal investigations.
Sweden Rolls Away Church to Expand Underground Mine
SWEDEN
A famous wooden church in Sweden’s northernmost town of Kiruna was relocated this week to make way for the expansion of Europe’s biggest underground mine, France 24 reported.
Built in 1912, the church is considered one of the country’s most beloved and largest wooden buildings and features designs inspired by the region’s indigenous Sami community on the pews.
After excavating the area around the 672-ton Lutheran Church, workers inserted large beams beneath it to lift it onto remote-controlled flatbed trailers, which transported it to a new site about three miles down the road.
The operation, financed by mining company Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Aktiebolag (LKAB) at an estimated cost of $52 million, is part of a decades-long effort to move much of the Arctic mining town of Kiruna. Consistent mining activities have weakened the ground beneath the historic city center, increasing the risk of collapse in certain areas.
LKAB said the building has been “thoroughly examined” ahead of the relocation to ensure that its cultural assets, specifically the altarpiece and organ, are protected.
“The church is Kiruna’s soul in some way, and in some way it’s a safe place,” Lena Tjarnberg, the vicar of Kiruna, told Reuters.
Thousands of spectators gathered Tuesday and Wednesday in the town to see the church creep along at 0.3 miles per hour on roads that had to be widened to accommodate the structure, Deutsche Welle wrote.
While the relocation was a success, the Sami community has other fears for the region. Having herded reindeer in the area for thousands of years, they worry that the mine’s further expansion could disrupt traditional migration routes, threatening the reindeer that provide their livelihoods.
Around 3,000 homes and about 6,000 people will need to move to the new Kiruna as part of the old town’s relocation, according to LKAB. The company offered to compensate everyone affected by the relocation or to rebuild their homes and buildings.
DISCOVERIES
Social Networking
Many humans avoid social gatherings if they don’t know anyone attending.
So do some gorillas.
A new study on the creatures shows that when joining a new social circle, female gorillas tend to prefer groups that include females they have previously lived with.
“Going into a new group could feel pretty scary, with individuals usually entering at the bottom of the social hierarchy,” said study author Robin Morrison in a statement. “A familiar female might help reduce this, providing a social ally.”
In many animal societies, members of one or both sexes leave their birth group to join a different one. In some species, including humans and gorillas, individuals may switch groups multiple times throughout their lives.
This behavior is known as dispersal and plays a role in preventing inbreeding, promoting genetic diversity, and shaping social bonds.
The study analyzed more than 20 years of data on multiple groups of wild mountain gorillas to discover how gorillas chose their social groups. It found that females do not disperse randomly.
While females did not seem concerned by broad group traits such as group size or sex ratio, they considered past social experiences and avoided males they grew up with, looking for females they already knew instead.
“Because female mountain gorillas do not know with certainty who their fathers are, they might rely on a simple rule like ‘avoid any group with males I grew up with as the likelihood of them being related will be higher than with males they did not grow up with,’” said study author Victoire Martignac in the statement.
This rule depends not only on familiarity but on its context, she added: “This really tells us that it’s not just who they know that matters but how they know them,” explained Martignac.
The factor that seems to matter the most was the presence of females they had previously lived with, indicating these relationships remained important even after they had spent years apart. In particular, they tend to choose females they have spent at least five years with and whom they have seen in the past two years.
“It could also act like a recommendation from a friend,” said Morrison. “If a female they know has chosen to stay in this group, it could indicate positive things about the group as a whole or the dominant male leading that group.”
Researchers said that maintaining relationships matters for the creatures, as temporary separations can be followed by reunions, easing the transition into new social groups.
“This mirrors a key aspect of human societies: the existence of strong ties between different social groups,” added Martignac. “As humans, we’re constantly moving across jobs, cities, and social groups. We do it so effortlessly that we forget how unusual this flexibility actually is within the animal kingdom.”