The Shadow Army: For Iraqis, Reining in Iraqi Militias Is a High-Stakes Move
NEED TO KNOW
The Shadow Army: For Iraqis, Reining in Iraqi Militias Is a High-Stakes Move
IRAQ
When gunmen from Iraq’s Kata’ib Hezbollah militia stormed Iraq’s Agriculture Ministry in July, it wasn’t about farming policy, it was a raw demonstration of power. A corrupt ministry director, resisting his removal, had called in the militia to block the appointment of his replacement. The standoff turned deadly when police intervened. Three people died, and nine more were wounded.
Afterward, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani admitted the incident exposed a deeper truth about Iraq and its “formations that act outside the chain of command,” as a government investigation into the incident described these militias. As a result, he promised accountability and approved sweeping disciplinary and legal measures against senior commanders in a paramilitary force, an unusual move for an Iraqi leader: “Security agencies must operate under laws and be subject to them and be held accountable.”
That, however, is easier said than done, say analysts.
“When a sitting Iraqi prime minister dares to confront Kata’ib Hezbollah, the stakes are never low,” wrote analysts Burcu Ozcelik and Tamer Badawi of the United Kingdom’s RUSI think tank.
Militias began developing in Iraq after the US invasion of the country in 2003. Then in 2014, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) were formed to fight the Islamic State militant group, which that year began to take over large swathes of the country. Today, the PMF has swollen to about 238,000 fighters – larger than the entire US Marine Corps. They operate through 60 disparate factions, with the biggest Shiite Iran-linked groups, Kata’ib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, each fielding about 10,000 men.
The PMF was formally placed under the control of the Iraqi military in 2016. However, in practice, it still operates with significant autonomy and without transparency, observers say.
The Iraqi government spends $3.5 billion a year on the PMF, the same amount it spends on its health ministry. The fighters control checkpoints, where they collect “fees” from drivers and traders. Their influence reaches into every aspect of society, from parliament to the courts to more everyday matters such as licenses and trade.
This summer, lawmakers attempted to give the militias even more authority, debating a bill that would have put the PMF on the same legal status as the army, with its own commander and academy. Critics, however, warned it would create a parallel military, although in reality, it already serves as such.
However, the US and the UK pushed hard against the bill. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned it would “institutionalize Iranian influence and armed terrorist groups undermining Iraq’s sovereignty.” Britain’s ambassador, Irfan Siddiq, added that some PMF units do not always follow the prime minister’s orders and questioned whether their wartime role should persist in peacetime.
Facing this pressure, al-Sudani’s government abruptly withdrew the bill, blindsiding lawmakers.
The legislation, say analysts, ignored the entrenched problems with the PMF: “Factions have overrun the organization, siphoning off state resources, exploiting their positions for personal gain, and shielding themselves from accountability under the banner of a patriotic legacy they no longer represent,” wrote Ali al-Mawlawi of Horizon Advisory, a London-based consultancy for the Stimson Center. “In practice, rogue elements not only operate outside the formal chain of command but at times actively undermine the authority of the state.”
As a result, there is no question, analysts say, that the PMF must be regulated because they pose a threat to the country. “To mitigate the risk of Iraq becoming embroiled in a regional conflict, the PMF must be reformed so that these forces do not become a justification for undermining the country’s hard-fought stability,” al-Mawlawi added.
However, the solution must come from within, not from Western pressure, analysts say, adding that trying to force a showdown or dismantle the militias without a plan could “backfire and destabilize the country by emboldening pro-Iran groups who are less risk-averse.”
Still, the militias stayed out of the Israel-Iran war in June. Analysts say the militias are eschewing open conflict that could trigger external retaliation from the US, and instead they are focusing on consolidating their hold domestically, particularly with regard to the upcoming parliamentary elections in November.
PMF-aligned parties in the Shiite Coordination Framework currently dominate the national parliament and provincial councils after success in the December 2023 local elections, mainly due to low turnout amid a boycott called by influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in protest of militias’ political influence.
That’s due to veteran politician and PMF leader Falih al-Fayyadh having shaped the PMF into “something like a political-military bloc that can seek to influence parliament, rather than a neutral security force,” wrote World Politics Review.
Many Iraqis want the militias brought under control because they hinder the economy, promote violence, and silence dissent, analysts say. As a result of domestic and external pressure, Iraq now faces a hard choice: fold militias deeper into the state or confront them and risk another cycle of violence.
“The debate in Baghdad is no longer about whether the PMF may remain as currently constituted – that question has been answered in Washington. Al-Sudani faces overwhelming pressure to stop tolerating an Iranian-aligned parallel army within the Iraqi state,” wrote Iraqi analyst and commentator Jasim Al-Azzawi in Al Jazeera.
“The risks are substantial,” he added. “Paramilitary groups loyal to Iran may violently resist dissolution. Tehran, despite its weakened regional position, retains the capacity to foment chaos across Iraqi territory… Iraq, weary of war, may yet be hurled back into civil conflict. But if Iraqi institutions manage to withstand the storm, this would pave the way towards stronger sovereignty, which the Iraqi state has been direly lacking since the 2003 US invasion.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
Two Brazilian Justices Find Bolsonaro Guilty of Plotting a Coup, One Acquits, As Brazil Holds Its Breath
BRAZIL
Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Luiz Fux voted on Wednesday to annul the case against former President Jair Bolsonaro on jurisdictional issues, breaking with his fellow justices and bolstering the odds of an appeal following the verdict this week, Reuters reported.
Even so, the high court still seems likely to convict Bolsonaro of plotting a coup to remain in power after he was voted out of office in 2022: Two justices have already voted to convict, and the remaining two were appointed by leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who defeated Bolsonaro in the 2022 election, the newswire added.
Only one more justice finding Bolsonaro guilty is needed for a conviction, the BBC reported. A verdict is expected by Friday, and, if convicted, Bolsonaro faces more than 40 years in jail.
Fux’s vote could help Bolsonaro’s appeal: His defense team has argued that the case should be decided by the high court’s full bench of 11 justices, including two who were appointed by the former president.
The divergence on the court adds tension to a case that has already polarized the nation and drawn Bolsonaro supporters out in protest, with tens of thousands taking to the streets across the country over the weekend, along with counter demonstrators.
A lengthy appeals process would also push proceedings closer to the 2026 presidential campaign, in which Bolsonaro still insists he will be a candidate. The former president was barred from running for office until 2030 in a separate case over his spreading of unfounded claims about Brazil’s electronic voting system.
Bolsonaro is charged with leading a criminal organization, attempting to abolish the democratic rule of law, attempting a coup, and two counts of destruction of property. He denied all accusations as politically motivated. His seven co-defendants, some of whom are top military officers, who also stand accused of plotting a coup, have all denied charges.
Alexandre de Moraes, the first justice to cast his vote, said there was “no doubt” Bolsonaro plotted a coup after losing the 2022 presidential election to his left-wing rival, known as Lula. He added that there was more than enough evidence of a plan to assassinate the current president, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and de Moraes himself.
Bolsonaro followed the trial from his home in the capital, Brasília, where he is being kept under house arrest. He is currently banned from using social media and has yet to comment on the verdict stage of the trial.
Israel Sparks International Condemnation After Strike On Qatar
ISRAEL / WEST BANK & GAZA
Israel drew fierce regional and international condemnation Wednesday, a day after it launched a strike on Qatar’s capital aimed at killing top Hamas officials, with world leaders warning that the attack could derail the already fragile ceasefire talks and further exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, NBC News reported.
On Tuesday, Israel launched an airstrike on a Doha villa where Hamas officials were discussing a US-backed ceasefire proposal. Israeli officials said the attack targeted senior Hamas leadership, including Khalil al-Hayya, who was leading indirect ceasefire talks with Israel.
The Iran-backed group later released a statement claiming six people died in the attack, but al-Hayya survived. The casualties included al-Hayya’s son and the director of his office, and an officer of Qatar’s Internal Security forces.
The airstrike prompted sharp reaction from Qatari officials, who branded it as “a blatant violation of all international laws and norms,” and “the activity of a rogue state.”
The United Arab Emirates’ President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan flew to Doha on Wednesday in an apparent show of solidarity, with Jordan’s crown prince and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also expected.
Criticism also came from Israel’s western allies, with the British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer warning that it violated Qatar’s sovereignty and risked “further escalation across the region.”
Tuesday’s strike provoked rare anger from the United States and also President Donald Trump, who had unveiled a new ceasefire proposal last week and was waiting for Hamas’ response, Axios added.
Trump said he was “very unhappy” about the operation. He later phoned Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani to assure him such strikes would not be repeated.
Observers and officials fear that the strike could further diminish prospects for a renewed ceasefire between Hamas and Israel as the war in Gaza inches toward its two-year mark in October.
Shortly after the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the strike as a necessary step against those responsible for planning the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack in southern Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw more than 250 others kidnapped.
On Wednesday, Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed that “the long arm of Israel will strike its enemies everywhere” and warned Hamas that Gaza would be “leveled” unless it accepted Israel’s terms – the release of the remaining hostages and the group’s disarmament.
Even so, Israeli Army Radio reported dissent within the security establishment, with senior officials objecting to the Doha operation as Hamas’s leadership was meeting about a truce, according to the Washington Post.
Meanwhile, in Gaza, the Israeli military pressed forward this week with a sweeping evacuation order for all of Gaza City, distributing leaflets that directed civilians to an already overcrowded “humanitarian zone” further south.
Israel’s response in Gaza has created a drastic humanitarian crisis that has seen tens of thousands displaced, produced a famine, and killed at least 64,000 people, according to Gazan health officials.
Amid growing international outrage, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced this week that the European Union will suspend its “bilateral support” – millions of euros worth of payments it transfers to Israel to support various projects – and partially suspend trade agreements.
Von der Leyen cited the “man-made famine” in Gaza and “a clear attempt” by Israel to “undermine the two-state solution” for the EU’s action, Euronews noted.
In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar called the decision “regrettable” and accused her of echoing “false propaganda.”
Belgium to Deploy Soldiers in Capital to Address Crime
BELGIUM
Belgium is considering deploying soldiers on the streets of its capital, Brussels, to help fight escalating drug violence that it says has gotten out of control, Politico reported.
There have been about 60 shootings just this year, a third of which happened over the summer and killed two people.
Belgian Security and Home Affairs Minister Bernard Quintin described this summer’s violence as “a catastrophe,” warning that “criminal gangs are becoming increasingly brazen.” He added that a police uniform is no longer effective as a deterrent, arguing they want to deploy soldiers alongside police for their “shock effect.”
Quintin said soldiers and police officers would be patrolling the “criminal hotspots” in the capital.
The Council of Ministers and the legislature still need to approve the plan, which has already garnered the support of the country’s major parties, including the Reformist Movement and the New Flemish Alliance.
Quintin also said soldiers could be deployed in other Belgian cities as well, such as the port city of Antwerp in northern Belgium, also plagued by drug-related crime.
Brussels prosecutor Julien Moinil said that about 7,000 suspects have been arraigned in Brussels this year, with about 1,250 suspected to be drug dealers. Moinil added that “anyone in Brussels can be hit by a stray bullet.”
Crime has skyrocketed in numerous countries in Europe, including Sweden.
On Tuesday, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson announced that the country will lower the age of criminal responsibility, currently set at 15, due to criminal gangs recruiting increasingly younger children on social media to use as hitmen, Reuters noted.
A government-appointed investigator recommended this year to lower the age of criminal responsibility to 14 for particularly serious crimes.
According to official data, 93 children under 15 years old were suspected of murder, aiding and abetting murder, or attempted murder in the first six months of 2024.
DISCOVERIES
Mirroring Mothers
Communication is more than just words – it encompasses gestures, postures, and facial expressions, and consists of both verbal and non-verbal symbolism.
While in constant use by humans and animals, its origins remain somewhat mysterious.
“It’s not like the emergence of communication is visible in the fossil record,” Joseph G. Mine, author of a new study tracing the origins of communication, told NPR. “There’s this big kind of open question of – how did human language evolve? How did humans or hominins communicate millions of years ago?”
The study focused on chimpanzees, one of humans’ closest relatives, suggesting that any traits humans share with chimps today could date back to when our lineages diverged, between six to eight million years ago.
Researchers observed about 22 wild chimps (Pan troglodytes) in a tropical rainforest that is part of Kibale National Park in Uganda, where they could film their natural behavior.
Back in the lab, the team analyzed hundreds of hours of footage, looking at vocal signs –grunts, barks, and whimpers – and nonvocal communication – arm movements, gaze direction, and body postures – to identify which behaviors tended to occur together more often than expected and couldn’t be attributed to chance.
“So they might combine a pant hoot vocalization with running, but also with slapping the ground or grabbing a branch,” said Mine.
The team had already published a repertoire of 108 combinations last year.
Now, by studying chimps older than 10, they found that their communication style closely resembled that of their mothers’ and maternal relatives but showed little similarity to that of their fathers or paternal relatives.
“What we see is that certain chimpanzee mothers tend to produce many vocal-visual combinations, while others produce few,” Mine said in a statement. “And the offspring end up behaving like the mothers, resulting in family-specific tendencies.”
Chimp mothers are the primary caregivers – fathers don’t contribute to parenting – indicating that there might be a learned component in chimps’ communication techniques.
“The mother is really the valid social template that they can be learning from, but they don’t really have the exposure that would allow them to learn from their fathers,” explained Mine.
The fact that communication styles in chimps older than 10 still mirrored their mothers’ indicates the lasting impact of maternal kin influences: That is the age at which chimps begin gaining independence from their primary caregivers.
These results, researchers say, suggest that the social learning of communication evolved earlier than previously believed.