A Big Choice: Moldova Goes to the Polls in an Election That Will Decide Its Future
NEED TO KNOW
A Big Choice: Moldova Goes to the Polls in an Election That Will Decide Its Future
MOLDOVA
Last month, in an extraordinary show of support for pro-Western political forces in the former Soviet republic of Moldova, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accepted Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s invitation to celebrate the 34th anniversary of her country’s independence.
Arguably, however, the episode may have also highlighted democratic Europe’s vulnerability to Russian power, commentators said. When Moldovan voters head to the polls to elect a new parliament on Sept. 28, Sandu’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity risks losing its majority, which could change the Western tilt of the country.
According to a recent poll, Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party is expected to win about 34 percent of the vote, which means it will lose the absolute majority it won four years ago. The Patriotic Electoral Bloc, which includes Socialists and Communists who advocate for closer ties with Moscow, is expected to win about 30 percent of the vote. If those results hold, it would mean a divided parliament and threaten the pro-European direction of the country, in particular its path to European Union membership, something Russia is firmly against, analysts say.
Sandu, in particular, has been sounding alarm bells over unprecedented Russian meddling in Moldova’s election process, including spreading disinformation online and elsewhere, buying votes, illegal campaign funding, and other measures.
Russian agents allegedly have used the Russian Orthodox Church as well as AI-driven chatbots to sway Moldovan expatriates in third countries who were crucial to Sandu’s past electoral victories, the Financial Times wrote. In the 2024 presidential election, Russia spent the equivalent of 1 percent of Moldova’s gross domestic product on election meddling, it said.
“The Kremlin’s goal is clear: to capture Moldova through the ballot box, to use us against Ukraine, and to turn us into a launchpad for hybrid attacks on the European Union,” Sandu told the Associated Press. “If our democracy cannot be protected, then no democracy in Europe is safe.”
Russia maintains about 1,000 troops in Transnistria, a separatist region that runs along the Moldovan border with Ukraine. As Radio Free Europe explained, the region is a classic example of how Russia uses its forces and influence to destabilize its neighbors in a bid to improve its national security. Gas and water shortages in Transnistria have likely undercut support for Russian control there, however.
A more pro-Kremlin parliament would certainly help Russia advance its goals in Moldova and beyond, noted the University of Birmingham’s Amy Eaglestone in the Conversation. It would weaken Ukraine’s support structure: Moldova, with a population of 2.4 million, hosted as many as 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees after Russia invaded it. Now, around 100,000 Ukrainians are in Moldova. Ukraine also ships grain through Moldova’s ports on the Danube River, providing an alternative route to bypass the threat of Russian forces attacking those vital shipments on the Black Sea.
It would also undermine the EU’s eastern resilience, she added.
“This would increase the risk of military attacks around the EU’s borders, with Romania looking particularly threatened, but increased attacks on Poland and the Baltic states not out of the question,” she said. “Meanwhile, a pro-Russian Moldovan government could offer an eastern base for attacks – or even to open a new front,” threatening NATO members.
Still, many Moldovans are sick and tired of their government failing to stamp out corruption or secure affordable energy from a source other than Russia, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That’s why many might take a chance on compelling Sandu’s allies to form a coalition with someone else.
Inna, 60, who was selling flowers at a makeshift stall in the capital of Chisinau, says she is unimpressed with the current leadership or the visit by the three European leaders.
“It’s nice, but what does it change?” she told Le Monde, adding that she feels that Sandu does not “listen to her.”
She added that she wants “peace,” which for her means “good relations” with all countries, “even Russia.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
ICC Charges Former Philippines President with Crimes Against Humanity
PHILIPPINES
International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutors charged former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte with three counts of crimes against humanity, accusing him of involvement in at least 76 murders during his “war on drugs,” Agence France-Presse reported.
A heavily redacted charge sheet dated from July but only made public on Monday detailed the accusations against the 80-year-old former president, who has been in custody at the ICC detention center in The Hague since early March, when he was arrested at Manila airport on an ICC warrant.
ICC deputy prosecutor Mame Mandiaye Niang said Duterte was an “indirect co-perpetrator” in the murders, which the court believes were carried out by others, including police, the BBC wrote.
One count refers to Duterte’s alleged participation as a co-perpetrator in 19 murders carried out between 2013 and 2016, when he was mayor of Davao City, southern Philippines. Another concerns 14 murders of so-called “High Value Targets” across the country in 2016 and 2017 when Duterte was president of the country and started his war on drugs.
And yet another relates to the murder and attempted murder of 45 people in so-called “clearance” operations targeting lower-level alleged drug users or dealers. According to prosecutors, these were carried out across the Philippines between 2016 and 2018.
The charges against the former president are rooted in his years-long campaign against drug users and dealers that killed more than 6,000 people. He has said it was necessary to free the country from street crimes.
Civil rights groups, meanwhile, believe the true tally of victims – often held or killed without a trial – could be in the tens of thousands.
The prosecutors filed these charges just before Duterte was expected to appear at the ICC in a proceeding that was postponed while the court decides whether Duterte is fit to stand trial due to poor health.
The ICC has been the center of controversy lately, with the US targeting its judges and prosecutors with sanctions because it indicted Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as figures from the Hamas militant group, for alleged war crimes committed during the Gaza war.
Sources told Reuters this week that the US is now considering “entity sanctions” to take effect as soon as this week, which would put the court’s day-to-day operations in jeopardy, from its ability to pay its staff, to its access to bank accounts and routine office software on its computers.
The US and Israel are not members of the ICC.
Meanwhile, three junta-led West African nations in the Sahel region – Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger – announced their withdrawal from the court this week, describing it as a “tool of neocolonial repression,” Africanews added.
The three had already withdrawn from the Economic Community of West African States (or ECOWAS) and instead, formed the Alliance of Sahel States. They said the ICC is targeting weaker states while ignoring others and expressed the intention to set up “indigenous mechanisms” for justice and accountability that will be more closely aligned with their national values and claims of sovereignty.
Human rights groups are concerned that the move might reduce international oversight of alleged human rights abuses, especially in conflict zones.
EU and Indonesia Reach Free Trade Deal
INDONESIA
Indonesia and the European Union concluded a free trade agreement Tuesday after nearly a decade of negotiations, with officials from both sides hailing the deal as a milestone aimed at boosting exports and investment, while also insulating their economies from global tariff wars, Reuters reported.
Signed in the Indonesian tourist hub of Bali, the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) will remove tariffs on more than 90 percent of products, most immediately, and the rest within five years, including Indonesia’s 50 percent duty on European cars.
EU exporters are expected to save about $708 million annually in duties, while Jakarta expects bilateral trade – valued at $30.1 billion last year – to double within five years of implementation.
The pact will open Indonesian access to the EU’s markets for palm oil, textiles, coffee, footwear, and fisheries, with 80 percent of exports to the bloc set to become tariff-free.
Speaking in Bali, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said the deal will provide EU companies new opportunities in chemicals, machinery, and food products, as well as access to critical minerals – such as nickel, copper, bauxite, and tin – that are vital for the bloc’s clean tech industries.
Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto also said Jakarta is negotiating partnerships with European automakers on batteries and electric vehicle production.
The parties have been negotiating a free trade agreement since 2016.
Analysts said the agreement was strongly shaped by global pressures, with US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff policies prompting urgency on both sides to secure alternative markets, Agence France-Presse added.
Since Trump’s reelection, the EU has forged new trade alliances with a number of nations and economic blocs, including Singapore, Vietnam, Mexico, and Latin America’s Mercosur.
The Indonesia-EU CEPA agreement must still undergo legal review and ratification by both sides, with implementation expected by January 1, 2027.
Still, lingering tensions remain over the EU’s deforestation regulation, which bans imports linked to forest clearance after December 2020.
The bloc has delayed its implementation to the end of this year, and Hartarto said Šefčovič promised “special treatment” for partners with trade deals.
Environmental groups warned the pact could worsen deforestation.
Turkey’s Probe of Opposition-Run Municipalities Results in 13 Arrests
TURKEY
Turkish authorities on Tuesday detained 13 people in a corruption probe regarding concerts organized by the Ankara Metropolitan Municipality in what marks the latest legal move targeting municipalities under the control of Turkey’s main opposition party, the Associated Press reported.
The Ankara Chief Prosecutor’s Office said the suspects are charged with abuse of public office and rigging of public tenders. Among them are former municipal employees and owners of private event companies.
The investigation surrounds 32 concerts held between 2021 and 2024, which reportedly led to the municipality losing $3.7 million, the statement said.
Municipalities governed by the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) have faced several corruption investigations this year. In March, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, considered President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s main rival, was arrested on corruption charges, a move that sparked widespread protests.
The CHP has rejected all accusations, saying the legal actions are a politically motivated attempt by Erdoğan to weaken the opposition. Meanwhile, the government says the judiciary is independent and the investigations only aim to target corruption.
The CHP secured decisive victories in last year’s local elections, winning major cities it already held, such as Istanbul and Ankara, but also advancing in regions usually dominated by Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).
An Ankara court is scheduled to rule next month over whether to annul the 2023 congress of the CHP, in which Özgür Özel, considered Erdoğan’s next biggest rival, was elected chairman over alleged irregularities, according to Al-Monitor.
On Sunday, the CHP re-elected Özel as leader during an extraordinary congress held in a bid to protect him and other party leaders from the ruling that could order their ouster. By securing a fresh mandate – with all 835 votes in favor – CHP officials hope to minimize the chances that the upcoming ruling could oust Özel.
DISCOVERIES
Cosmic Rock Fights
Jupiter formed 4.5 billion years ago, and as the planet grew, its powerful gravity pulled in nearby icy and rocky planetesimals, leading them to collide at very high speed.
The impacts were so strong that the rock and dust from the planetesimals melted on impact, generating tiny molten rock droplets – 0.1-2 millimeters (0.004-0.079 inches) – known as chondrules.
Some of these chondrules were then incorporated into asteroids as the solar system evolved. Over billions of years, pieces of the asteroids broke off and fell to Earth as meteorites.
For decades, scientists have wondered how these small spheres came to Earth and why they took on their round shape.
“Previous formation theories couldn’t explain chondrule characteristics without requiring very specific conditions,” Sin-iti Sirono, author of a new study, said in a statement. “(Our) model requires conditions that naturally occurred in the early solar system when Jupiter was born.”
The researchers developed a computer program simulating Jupiter’s early formation to track how its gravitational pull would have led to high-speed collisions between rocky and water-rich planetesimals.
“We compared the characteristics and abundance of simulated chondrules to meteorite data and found that the model spontaneously generated realistic chondrules,” study author Diego Turrini said in the statement.
The research showed that the features of chondrules, especially their sizes and the rate at which they cooled in space, are determined by the water contained in the impacting planetesimals.
“When planetesimals collided with each other, water instantly vaporized into expanding steam,” said Sirono. “This acted like tiny explosions and broke apart the molten silicate rock into the tiny droplets we see in meteorites today.”
The model also indicated that chondrule formation occurred alongside Jupiter’s rapid accumulation of nebular gas as it grew to its enormous size.
“As meteorite data tell us that peak chondrule formation took place 1.8 million years after the solar system began, this is also the time at which Jupiter was born,” said Turrini.
This study allowed researchers to trace the birth order of planets and provided insights into how the solar system formed.
However, chondrule production from Jupiter’s formation alone is too brief to explain why meteorites showcase chondrules of many different ages. The most likely reason is that other giant planets, like Saturn, also triggered chondrule formation when they were born.