NEED TO KNOW
Friend in Need … a Friend Indeed
GUATEMALA
Two years ago, a little-known former Guatemalan diplomat in a crowded presidential election race won a shock victory against the establishment candidate, former first lady Sandra Torres.
Afterward, the powerful political, military, criminal, and business groups – including corrupt judges, prosecutors, and the attorney general – that controlled the country did everything they could to keep Bernardo Arévalo of the Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement) from the presidential office.
With a little help from the US in the form of sanctions and other measures, Arévalo managed to stop the “slow-motion coup” by the country’s elites, locally known as the Pacto de Corruptos (the Corrupt Pact). He took office and allowed Guatemalans to celebrate their “Democratic Spring.”
So it may come as no surprise that when other countries complained about the deportation flights from the US to their countries over the past month, Guatemala, Central America’s largest economy and most populous nation, but also one of the top three sources of illegal migration to the US, welcomed them and other third-party nationals.
“The US also reaped rewards,” wrote Benjamin N. Gedan of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, in World Politics Review, referring to US help for Guatemala. “Strong democracies tend to be more reliable partners for Washington and US investors, and less reliable partners for drug kingpins – and that has been the case in Guatemala.”
Gedan noted that the country has been a good partner in other ways, for example, deploying 150 military police officers to Haiti to support a US-funded mission to fight violent gangs there or maintaining Guatemala’s diplomatic relations with Taiwan, one of just 12 countries to do so.
Still, Guatemala also sees the returning nationals as a potential benefit.
“The return of our migrants presents an opportunity not only for the state and the government but to coordinate this as a national effort with the private sector, the tourism sector, infrastructure,” Santiago Palomo, Arévalo’s spokesman, told CNN. “(These) are people that have built capacities, they can speak perhaps two languages and can help Guatemala develop.”
Officials say the government is launching a nationwide plan to welcome the migrants back and reintegrate them into the economy.
On a visit to Guatemala earlier this month, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Guatemalan president that he would support developing infrastructure projects and investments in the country. These, he hopes, could help prevent tens of thousands of Guatemalans from desiring to migrate. “We’re not just neighbors; we’re allies, we’re friends,” he said.
Meanwhile, Arévalo is busy trying to reform Guatemala to make it a desirable country to live in and invest in, not leave. Tackling corruption, he has made some progress in attempting to clean up public contracting and advancing meritocracy in government positions. He’s also trying to improve competitiveness by decentralizing the economy to attract foreign investors. Last year, Walmart and other companies announced a multi-year investment plan.
Currently, about 55 percent of Guatemalans live in poverty, according to the World Bank.
The president has been shoring up the border against transnational crime and migration, too. As a result, over 2024 Guatemala seized more than double the amount of drugs compared with 2023.
Still, having just marked his first year in office in January, he’s continuing to battle to stay in power. The country’s attorney general, Consuelo Porras, who has been sanctioned by the US for corruption, continues her “politically motivated prosecutions” against members of the government in an attempt to sideline or oust the president. She has attempted to strip his immunity from prosecution multiple times, wrote Human Rights Watch.
Arévalo has also faced more than a dozen unsuccessful impeachment motions and attempts to revoke his party’s legal status.
The president of the country has no power to hire or fire the attorney general.
Now, say analysts, Arévalo’s backers worry that the US, despite its words, will abandon the country. That would play into Arévalo’s opponents’ hands.
“Bernardo Arévalo overcame tremendous obstacles to become Guatemala’s president, but the old guard that tried to derail his campaign is now retaliating against his government to protect their own corrupt network,” wrote Freedom House. “As Arévalo will likely face further attempts to derail his agenda, the continued assistance of committed allies may prove essential during his second year.”
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