A Big Choice: Moldova Goes to the Polls in an Election That Will Decide Its Future

Last month, in an extraordinary show of support for pro-Western political forces in the former Soviet republic of Moldova, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accepted Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s invitation to celebrate the 34th anniversary of her country’s independence. 

Arguably, however, the episode may have also highlighted democratic Europe’s vulnerability to Russian power, commentators said. When Moldovan voters head to the polls to elect a new parliament on Sept. 28, Sandu’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity risks losing its majority, which could change the Western tilt of the country. 

According to a recent poll, Sandu’s Action and Solidarity Party is expected to win about 34 percent of the vote, which means it will lose the absolute majority it won four years ago. The Patriotic Electoral Bloc, which includes Socialists and Communists who advocate for closer ties with Moscow, is expected to win about 30 percent of the vote. If those results hold, it would mean a divided parliament and threaten the pro-European direction of the country, in particular its path to European Union membership, something Russia is firmly against, analysts say. 

Sandu, in particular, has been sounding alarm bells over unprecedented Russian meddling in Moldova’s election process, including spreading disinformation online and elsewhere, buying votes, illegal campaign funding, and other measures. 

Russian agents allegedly have used the Russian Orthodox Church as well as AI-driven chatbots to sway Moldovan expatriates in third countries who were crucial to Sandu’s past electoral victories, the Financial Times wrote. In the 2024 presidential election, Russia spent the equivalent of 1 percent of Moldova’s gross domestic product on election meddling, it said. 

“The Kremlin’s goal is clear: to capture Moldova through the ballot box, to use us against Ukraine, and to turn us into a launchpad for hybrid attacks on the European Union,” Sandu told the Associated Press. “If our democracy cannot be protected, then no democracy in Europe is safe.” 

Russia maintains about 1,000 troops in Transnistria, a separatist region that runs along the Moldovan border with Ukraine. As Radio Free Europe explained, the region is a classic example of how Russia uses its forces and influence to destabilize its neighbors in a bid to improve its national security. Gas and water shortages in Transnistria have likely undercut support for Russian control there, however. 

A more pro-Kremlin parliament would certainly help Russia advance its goals in Moldova and beyond, noted the University of Birmingham’s Amy Eaglestone in the Conversation. It would weaken Ukraine’s support structure: Moldova, with a population of 2.4 million, hosted as many as 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees after Russia invaded it. Now, around 100,000 Ukrainians are in Moldova. Ukraine also ships grain through Moldova’s ports on the Danube River, providing an alternative route to bypass the threat of Russian forces attacking those vital shipments on the Black Sea. 

It would also undermine the EU’s eastern resilience, she added.  

“This would increase the risk of military attacks around the EU’s borders, with Romania looking particularly threatened, but increased attacks on Poland and the Baltic states not out of the question,” she said. “Meanwhile, a pro-Russian Moldovan government could offer an eastern base for attacks – or even to open a new front,” threatening NATO members.  

Still, many Moldovans are sick and tired of their government failing to stamp out corruption or secure affordable energy from a source other than Russia, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That’s why many might take a chance on compelling Sandu’s allies to form a coalition with someone else. 

Inna, 60, who was selling flowers at a makeshift stall in the capital of Chisinau, says she is unimpressed with the current leadership or the visit by the three European leaders.  

“It’s nice, but what does it change?” she told Le Monde, adding that she feels that Sandu does not “listen to her.” 

She added that she wants “peace,” which for her means “good relations” with all countries, “even Russia.”