A Race of One: Turkey Arrests President’s Rival

Turkish authorities carried out a series of arrests this week, including the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu – a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan – in a move that sparked protests and raised concerns over further democratic backsliding in the country, the BBC reported.

On Wednesday, police arrested İmamoğlu along with more than 100 others on various charges, including corruption and aiding terrorist groups. İmamoğlu’s detention comes just ahead of a primary election Sunday by Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), where İmamoğlu was expected to become its presidential contender in the 2028 elections.

On Thursday, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that authorities had also detained 37 people for allegedly posting “provocative” content on social media, which officials classified as “incitement to commit a crime.”

Critics, including CHP supporters, condemned the detentions as a politically motivated “coup,” which the government rejected. Protests broke out in the capital, Ankara, as well as in Istanbul, where the pro-Erdoğan governor imposed a four-day ban on demonstrations.

A message posted on İmamoğlu’s X account on Thursday urged Turkey to “stand against this evil as a nation,” calling on members of the judiciary and Erdoğan’s party to fight injustice. His office also called for continued demonstrations outside the municipal hall.

The arrests come amid an ongoing nationwide crackdown that has targeted opposition politicians, journalists, and public figures in recent months.

İmamoğlu, who secured a second term as Istanbul’s mayor in 2024 when the CHP won key local elections there and in Ankara, has emerged as a major political threat to Erdoğan. His victory last year was a significant blow to the president, who began his own political career as Istanbul’s mayor.

Analysts warned that İmamoğlu’s arrest could exacerbate Turkey’s economic troubles. On Wednesday, Turkish markets experienced the world’s sharpest decline, with the lira hitting a record low against the dollar, CNBC wrote.

Inflation remains a pressing issue, reaching approximately 39 percent in February.

Erdoğan, who has been in power for 22 years as prime minister and president, is constitutionally barred from running for another term unless he amends the constitution or calls early elections, CNN noted.

However, Soner Cagaptay, a Turkish historian and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told CNBC that polling suggests that İmamoğlu, if not disqualified, would defeat Erdogan “by wide margins” in an early vote.