A Shot in the Dark: Indonesia’s President Want’s ‘Polite Democracy.’ Good Luck With That.

When Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto took office in October, some dismissed his “dark” past, believing he might be a shot in the arm for Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, elevating it economically, politically, and internationally.

Instead, in just six months, the mercurial former soldier has given the country an adrenaline rush, but not quite how many voters imagined: He has moved fast and furiously to change the established order and dismantle parts of the government, inspiring bewilderment, concern, and rage.

“Less than six months into his five-year term as president, Prabowo already faces a mountain of challenges,” wrote World Politics Review. The magazine was referring to the leader’s new economic plans that have consumers and investors revolting, his “massively bloated Cabinet” of 109 officials who were forced to go to a military boot camp, and his nonchalance over public corruption – he has suggested that corrupt officials be pardoned.

Taking over from his ally, President Joko Widodo, or Jokowi, for whom he served as defense minister, Prabowo has long been a member of the political elite as the son-in-law of the long-serving former dictator, Suharto.

He won elections last year as the “cuddly grandpa” candidate even as his record of abuses, atrocities and potential war crimes followed him: He is accused of involvement in brutal killings and massacres in East Timor and Papua New Guinea in the 1970s, 80s and 90s, and the forced disappearances of student protesters of the Suharto regime in the late 1990s – 13 students remain missing to this day.

Known as a “walking crime wave,” Prabowo was banned by the US banned Prabowo for two decades.

After taking office in October, he vowed to transform Indonesia’s economy, often talking about cutting waste and increasing efficiency, to bring its growth rate from its current 5 percent to 8 percent. He promised a bright future: “I am positive that we will make big surprises in the weeks and months to come,” he said.

Instead, unemployment, already high among the under 35 group, is rising, the stock market tumbling, and the Indonesian rupiah has plummeted to rates not seen since Asia’s financial crisis in the late 1990s.

“In many ways, this ought to be Indonesia’s moment,” wrote Bloomberg, noting Indonesia’s enormous economic potential. “But in recent weeks, it’s all gone pear-shaped.”

Analysts say the uncertainty he has created with massive cuts to the national budget for 2025 to reduce government spending by 8.5 percent and other actions – all coming without any warning – are negatively impacting investor confidence and consumer behavior and creating deflationary pressures. The country’s central bank cut its 2025 growth forecast in January, pointing to a weaker economic outlook and sluggish domestic consumption, the Financial Times wrote.

Those budget cuts – which include everything from canceling infrastructure projects such as roads and bridges to cutting air conditioning in public buildings and halting transfer payments to local governments, have angered the middle class and the young because they mean massive cuts to services, both at the federal and local level, as well as jobs and education.

Meanwhile, the president is already talking now about another round of cuts.

While some of the savings will go to his pet program, a $28-billion free meal program for students and expectant mothers to be partially administered by the military, much of it will go to a new, state sovereign wealth fund called Danantara, which will control some of the country’s largest state-owned enterprises. Prabowo says he will control the fund, which will hold $900 billion. “Never before has so much of Indonesia’s wealth been placed at the discretion of one man,” noted The Economist.

The budget cuts and the fund have set off fury.

Last month, thousands of Indonesians led by students concerned about the cuts “in the guise of efficiency” took to the streets in the “Indonesia Gelap” (Dark Indonesia) protests, the name a play on the country’s goal to become “Golden Indonesia,” a developed country by 2045.

The protesters, who have also complained of the suppression of dissent, were met with water cannons and tear gas, according to the Jakarta Post.

Meanwhile, hashtag “#kaburajadulu” (just flee first) has gone viral as the young encourage one another to leave the country for better opportunities elsewhere.

Voters are also concerned about the sovereign wealth fund, conflicts of interest, and corruption, especially as the budget cuts have targeted departments that provide government oversight.

The president, meanwhile, has fiercely criticized the protests while cracking down on the opposition, dissent, and media freedoms, analysts said.

“These demonstrations reflect deep public anxiety over the tightening grip of the elites on state policies, an alarming phenomenon known as state capture,” said Ismail Khosen of the University of Indonesia. “The dominance of business actors in government is no longer a mere suspicion, it’s an undeniable reality. Democracy, which should serve … to channel the aspirations of the people, is instead being hijacked by an oligarchy seeking to preserve its power.”

Protesters took to the streets again in mid-March after the legislature approved a bill that would essentially increase the number of active duty military personnel in civilian government jobs without requiring them to resign their commissions or retire.

Some say that’s a throwback to the military dictatorship of President Suharto, which lasted 32 years until he was forced out of office in 1998 by student-led protests. His regime was marked by widespread abuses and impunity. The long-abolished Dwifungsi ABRI (dual-function role of the military) was a hallmark of Suharto’s regime.

“The essence of democracy is that the military should not engage in politics – the military should only manage barracks and national defense,” Wilson, a protester, told the BBC. “Since 1998, there has been a creeping murder of democracy. And today marks its peak.”

Analysts say his actions are unsurprising – he has long said democracy was a Western import ill-suited to Indonesia while continuing a trend under Jokowi to further enrich the elite, consolidate power, and undermine democracy and the rule of law. As such, he told the legislature in his inaugural speech that he wants “a polite democracy where dissenting opinions must be free of hostility.”

“Having referred to democracy as ‘tiring’ and ‘messy,’” wrote Modern Diplomacy, “one cannot picture Prabowo as anything other than an autocrat-in-waiting bent on applying the finishing touches to what he deems a ‘failed social experiment’ and ushering in an era of retrograde, junta-inspired governance.”

Still, student-led demonstrations in Indonesia over the past few decades have forced leaders into policy reversals and brought down a president far more powerful than Prabowo, noted Yanuar Nugroho and Made Supriatma, two Indonesian scholars at the Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

“Whether they will catalyze change or fade into history is uncertain,” they wrote, “but what is clear is that Indonesia’s youth and civil society remain vigilant, continuing to shape the nation’s democratic evolution.”