The Declaration of Dependence

In November, opposition-led protesters in Abkhazia stormed and occupied parliament, the president’s office, and other key public buildings in the capital of Sukhumi until the leader of the breakaway republic resigned.

Aslan Bzhania was the third leader toppled in the pro-Russian, self-proclaimed statelet since its independence from the Caucasus-placed country Georgia in 2008, all of them due to Russia exerting pressure on its leadership for concessions.

As the Abkhazians are learning, wrote CEPA, “It’s not all laughs as a Russian colony.”

Now, as Abkhazians head to the polls to replace Bzhania, analysts say that voters are actually deciding on the future direction of their homeland, the choice being whether to continue with their aspirations of independence – or continue to cede control to their patron, Russia.

Almost no one believes there is a real choice.

Most of Abkhazia broke away from Georgia after a war in 1993. Fifteen years later, Georgia lost control of the rest of the region after a five-day war with Russia. Now, the self-proclaimed country (along with the breakaway region of South Ossetia) is only recognized by Russia and four other countries. It is also completely dependent on its powerful patron for funding its government, energy, and security – indeed, Russia hosts military bases in both breakaway republics.

Because of its lack of recognition internationally, this small, strategically located de facto state of 245,000 people didn’t manage to develop strong institutions for governance and wasn’t able to attract investment from beyond Russia.

“Gradually, Abkhazia has become a sort of closed island where kinship and informal structures have been more important than official institutions such as the police and the courts,” wrote the journal IPS. “With each passing year, the region has become more and more dependent on Moscow, and there seems to be no end in sight.”

Still, this dependence isn’t universally popular among Abkhazians, a sentiment that has become increasingly visible as opposition to various pro-Russia measures grows.

What fueled the protests last year was legislation opposed by many Abkhazians that would have allowed Russians to buy property in the state where tourism is its main economic activity and allowed them to do business there. Abkhazia’s subtropical climate, mountains, and Black Sea beaches have attracted Russian tourists, many of whom would like to purchase holiday homes or build hotels.

However, decades-old laws in Abkhazia grant property ownership and entrepreneurship rights exclusively to Abkhazians.

Opponents say the arrival of wealthy Russians and Russian businesses will cost them their income from tourism, price them out of the housing market, and strengthen Russia’s hold on the statelet.

The law was shelved in the summer due to opposition but reintroduced due to Russian pressure – until it was paused again after the protests.

Since those demonstrations, there have been calls to change the system and lessen dependence on Russia. Analysts say such calls are nothing new and aren’t likely to go anywhere. The country is too dependent, for example, after the bill to allow Russians property rights was initially shelved, Russia suspended payments to the statelet, which led to issues paying public servants. Russia soon after announced it would eliminate its subsidies for energy to the statelet, which experiences an energy crisis almost every winter.

Now, some worry that a part of the population will favor annexation by Russia as a way to improve their living conditions. Others worry that Russia may force such a union if Abkhazia keeps resisting its pressure. Alternatively, there is concern that Russia may return the de facto state to Georgia, now that a pro-Russian regime is in power there.

The elections won’t do much to change the situation – but they may send a clear signal to Moscow about how the de facto state views its future, say analysts.

Currently, the frontrunners for the state’s top job are interim President Badra Gunba of the governing party, who is backed by Russia, and Adgur Ardzinba, the head of the People’s Movement for Renewal, who is pro-independence and backed by the opposition and many young Abkhazians.

Analysts believe that Gunba will win and the entire cycle of quid-pro-quo will begin again.

“The Russians are paying them – they want something back,” analyst Olesya Vartanyan told CNN. “Every single Abkhaz leader … became sort of a hostage to Moscow.”