An Election Heard ‘Round the World: Romanians Hold a ‘Do-Over’ Vote

What happens when there is a do-over and the results are the same? This is what many in Romania, the European Union, and elsewhere fear will happen when the country holds a rerun of its presidential election May 4, a vote some say will have consequences far beyond its borders.

“What happens next in the country, which ousted communist rule 35 years ago, will be of critical importance to the European Union and Western powers,” wrote the Australia-based Lowy Institute, a think tank. It noted that some of those fears center on how Romania is slated to host NATO’s largest military base in Europe and the continuation of the Ukraine war, even as pro-Russian, anti-NATO candidates are leading the polls.

The election is also a high-stakes test for the former communist country, with officials hoping it will end the most severe political crisis it has faced since 1989, when the Romanian revolution ousted the country’s longtime dictator, Nicolae Ceaușescu.

The current crisis was triggered by the presidential election on Nov. 24 after a little-known, independent, far-right candidate, Călin Georgescu, had polled in the single digits ahead of the election, but won the first round of the vote.

That set off shock in the country and also raised questions: How could the obscure, Russia-friendly, anti-NATO candidate, who has praised fascist figures from Romania’s past, beat other, higher-polling candidates, Romanian officials wondered.

Officials appealed to the country’s high court, which upheld the election result until Romanian authorities declassified intelligence documents that confirmed “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” on the election involving voter manipulation, campaign irregularities, and questionable funding. The intelligence also detailed links and substantial financial flows between paid influencers on TikTok and Georgescu’s campaign, although the candidate had declared no campaign spending.

TikTok, meanwhile, confirmed recently that it dismantled covert influence networks that targeted Romanians, promoted the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romania (AUR) party, and Georgescu.

Moscow has denied any interference.

Soon after the release of the intelligence, Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the vote and reset it for May – then in March, the court banned Georgescu from running in it.

Georgescu, who has now been charged with “anti-constitutional acts” and other crimes, says he has done nothing wrong. He has denounced the court’s verdict as an “officialized coup” and an attack on democracy. “Europe is now a dictatorship, Romania is living under tyranny,” he said.

Meanwhile, the court’s decisions have set off months of protests.

In one, in early March, protesters marched in the capital, Bucharest, waving Romania’s tricolor flags, chanting slogans such as “Down with the Government!” and shouting, “Thieves,” in reference to the “stolen” election.

Romanians who voted for Georgescu say they are angry that their votes have been invalidated, and that he was their chosen candidate. “I want Georgescu to straighten everyone out,” one supporter told the BBC. “They tricked us. The others have done nothing for us here!”

Meanwhile, some of the most vocal support for the former candidate has come from the United States, from officials such as Vice President JD Vance and billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, a senior advisor to the US president, wrote World Politics Review.

Many Romanians share Georgescu’s views that membership in NATO and the EU has failed to bring the country any benefit, saying its aloof liberal leaders are out of touch with the realities of their lives, noted the Atlantic Council. The court’s decision to annul the election further undermined faith in the country’s leadership and its democracy, analysts added.

On the other hand, many frame the current election as a fight for democracy and a more prosperous future.

“I’m really anxious,” Laura Boncu, 33, a pro-EU protester in Bucharest, told France 24. “I don’t know how our future will look if the pro-Russian candidate will win. So I’m here to show that Romania is still a democracy, and we’re fighting, and we’re showing up to be able to live tomorrow in a democracy.”

Currently, 11 candidates are running in the first round of the new election. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be held on May 18.

The frontrunner is George Simion, the leader of the AUR party, who came fourth in last year’s election and later backed Georgescu. He’s polling well ahead of the other candidates, running on a campaign of “family, nation, faith, and freedom.”

Simion’s win has the establishment in Romania and the EU worried because of his anti-EU rhetoric and opposition to aiding the country’s neighbor, Ukraine, in its war with Russia.

Another key candidate is Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan, who is running as an independent, promising an “Honest Romania.” He is being backed by Romania’s center-right Save Romania Union (USR) party, whose leadership believes he has a better chance than its own party’s candidate, Elena Lasconi, who came in second in the initial vote but whose polling has declined steeply since then.

Another contender is Crin Antonescu, who is backed by Romania’s governing coalition made up of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), the National Liberal Party (PNL), and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania. A former leader of the PNL, he is best known for his stint as interim president a dozen years ago.

The wild card is Victor Ponta, a former leftist turned far-right populist who served as prime minister between 2012 and 2015, when he resigned after a fatal nightclub fire blamed on corruption in government. He is running on a “MAGA-style ‘Romania First’” platform. Still, he has recently come under fire for allowing Romanian farmland to flood to save Belgrade, the capital of Serbia.

One scenario that has been giving establishment politicians nightmares is what may happen if in the first round, Simion comes in first place, and Ponta in second.

“There is a real risk that the second round of the presidential elections will be seized by two extremists who want to take Romania out of the European Union,” the USR party said, adding that the election has “historic stakes.”

Yet that’s a real possibility, say analysts, pointing to how Romania has spent decades trying to build democratic institutions with help from the EU but has been plagued by poverty, high unemployment, and rampant corruption that have undermined the public’s faith in its democracy. Instead, like in other EU countries, the far-right has grown in Romania in recent years, fueled by widespread anti-establishment sentiment.

Last year’s annulled election only further weakened the public’s shattered trust in politicians and in democracy, analysts added, and it could take years to repair the damage. In the meantime, it’s a volatile situation with an “underlying social discontent that could explode again,” Cristian Andrei, a political analyst in Bucharest, told the Associated Press.

“The underlying issue in Romania is the widespread public dissatisfaction with the political class,” he said. “It’s important to keep reminding the public of what happened: that we were facing a campaign that attempted to hijack Romania’s democracy using unorthodox and illegal means.”

No matter who wins, the country will remain bitterly divided. But that’s nothing new, noted Lasconi, who is running in the presidential race.

“We’ve been divided for over 35 years,” she said. “Now Romania isn’t just split in two – Romania is shattered into many pieces.”