As Elections Approach and Regional Tensions Rise, Burundi Chooses the Status Quo

Burundi officially kicked off its 2025 election campaign season in early May at Ingoma Stadium in Gitega, the capital. Thousands of candidates dressed in their party colors paraded in a ceremony attended by politicians and political hopefuls. Attendees described it as a milestone for the country. 

“This is a first in Burundi’s democratic history,” Jean De Dieu Mutabazi, president of the Rally for Democracy and Economic and Social Development (RADEBU) party, told Africanews, adding he was optimistic about the election remaining peaceful. “It’s a very symbolic event, showing progress in our democratic culture and reducing political animosity between rivals.” 

If only that were so, say analysts.  

Despite a transition in 2020 from brutal autocrat Pierre Nkurunziza to President Évariste Ndayishimiye, who when he took office said he wanted to promote reform and civil liberties, five years later, the country has reverted back to a state of repression and brutality.  

For example, in spite of the ceremony celebrating the candidates running in federal and local elections on June 5, the leading opposition party, the National Congress for Liberty (CNL), has been suspended, and independent candidates have mostly been excluded from the election. 

“Recent events suggest that the political and security outlook in Burundi still mostly resembles the dim period of 2015-2016,” wrote Teresa Nogueira Pinto, an Africa analyst, in GIS, referring to the repression and political violence under Nkurunziza. “Despite some changes…, the (ruling) National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) has further consolidated its power…(by) … resorting to repression, including violent measures, against its opposition.”  

One example of that, analysts say, is how the president has legitimized the Imbonerakure, the youth wing of the ruling party. The group has become a paramilitary force acting on behalf of the party and has been accused of torturing and assassinating opposition figures and others found disloyal to the government. Recently, it was granted official status by the legislature as the Reserve and Development Support Force and charged with defending the country and promoting patriotism.  

The president has also severely restricted civil liberties and political freedoms, say human rights organizations.  

For example, the government has excluded former CNL leader Agathon Rwasa, who came second in the 2020 presidential race, from the current election. It did so by implementing a new electoral code that makes it difficult for independent candidates to run, a measure designed specifically to block Rwasa’s candidacy, wrote Nigeria’s News Central. 

Meanwhile, Reporters Without Borders recently warned of escalating violence against journalists sanctioned by the government, while members of opposition parties complain they face harassment, intimidation, and violence. 

As a result, analysts say, the elections will bring little change to a country facing deep problems that are becoming more destabilizing, analysts said.  

Burundi’s already fragile economy still hasn’t recovered from the disruptions stemming from the Covid-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine. High inflation and shortages of necessities including fuel have hit hard in a country where the majority of the population lives below the poverty line. 

Now it is being further destabilized by the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) next door: More than 100,000 refugees have crossed the border into Burundi since February, the Associated Press reported. United Nations officials say the situation is dire.  

Meanwhile, the war has escalated tensions with Rwanda, which is supporting the M23 rebels in the DRC with troops. As a result, Rwandan and M23 fighters are sparring with soldiers from Burundi, which supports the Congolese government. Burundi’s soldiers are also fighting the Burundian anti-government group, the Resistance for a State of Law in Burundi (RED-Tabara), based in the DRC. Burundi has long accused Rwanda of supporting the RED-Tabara, which has escalated its attacks in Burundi over the past year.  

In March, Ndayishimiye accused Rwandan leader, Paul Kagame, of planning to attack Burundi.  

Meanwhile, locals near the Burundian borders with the DRC and Rwanda say the halt of cross-border trade because of these tensions has hit the local economy hard, causing a loss of income and shortages of fuel and other commodities. They add that it has become impossible to acknowledge friends and family in the neighboring countries without being targeted by the government. Now, they are sure war is approaching.  

“Since the (war broke out in the DRC), we are afraid,” one resident of Buganda near the border with the eastern DRC, told Afrique XXI. “When the war breaks out, we will be the first victims.”