Reading the Tea Leaves

India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will lose two key state elections this week, exit polls showed, marking another defeat for the Hindu-nationalist party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi after it fared poorly in the national June vote, Reuters reported.

Projections showed the opposition Indian National Congress party winning the election in the northern state of Haryana.

Meanwhile, Congress and its allies are expected to have an edge over the BJP in the Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir. However, none of the parties are projected to secure a clear majority in the territory, according to Bloomberg.

The two elections were conducted in phases that concluded Saturday. Final results are expected Tuesday.

If Modi’s party does end up losing the states, it would signal a serious shift in voter sentiment against the BJP, observers noted.

The governing party saw its fortunes falter following the June elections when it fell short of its parliamentary majority for the first time since Modi came to power. The results forced the BJP to depend on its coalition partners to form a government.

Meanwhile, the loss of Haryana would be significant because the state has been a BJP stronghold for a decade. At the same time, the party’s poor performance in Jammu and Kashmir is likely to reflect voter discontent over the loss of autonomy.

The Jammu and Kashmir election, the first in a decade, occurred in a region long plagued by violence. The territory has been disputed with Pakistan since 1947 and lost its semi-autonomous status in 2019 under Modi. The government says the move has restored stability and boosted development, a claim critics dispute.

The decrease in support for Modi’s party is now leading some analysts to speculate that the party might lose in upcoming state elections in the industrial hub of Maharashtra and the mineral-rich eastern state of Jharkhand later this year.