Coup Politics: In Thailand, There is Just No Pleasing the Military 

On July 1, Thailand’s Constitutional Court suspended Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, while it considered a petition by a few dozen senators to remove her from office. The prime minister had become embroiled in a scandal rocking the country over a leaked phone call with the former leader of Cambodia, as a border conflict between the two countries was heating up.  

The court’s move followed street protests calling for her ouster and also the defection of the second-largest party in her governing coalition, leaving her administration in danger of collapse. 

Now, analysts say that not only is the prime minister on her way out, but that the country is on the verge of a coup – one more in a nation that has seen a dozen within the past century. 

“The military has launched coups so many times that it has developed what many experts as a “coup culture” in which the more coups happen, the more they create an idea in the military, passed down to younger officers, in which coups are acceptable means of handling virtually any major challenges in the country,” wrote the Council on Foreign Relations. 

This time, as in the past two military putsches, it would impact the mighty Shinawatra family. Paetongtarn’s father, Thaksin Shinawatra, a wealthy businessman of the populist Pheu Thai party, was removed from the top job in a coup in 2006, having made enemies of the monarchy, the military, and the business community. Her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, was ousted by the courts in 2014 with a coup following two weeks later. Both putsches followed adverse court rulings, parliamentary gridlock, and protests demanding that the government resign, analysts said.  

The current situation is following a similar script, wrote the Diplomat. 

The roots of the current chaos are the result of the gridlocked politics of the past three years, analysts say. In 2023, the progressive Move Forward party, which sought to crack down on monopolies, reduce the power of the military, and reform the country’s Lèse-majesté laws that criminalize criticizing the monarchy, received the most votes in parliamentary elections but not enough to form a government. To sideline the progressives, the pro-military conservative parties made a deal with their devil – Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai party – to form a coalition. 

As a result of this bargain, Srettha Thavisin became prime minister – before he was ousted last year. Now, it’s likely his successor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, will share the same fate. 

Her governing coalition began to splinter after the departure of the second-largest party in her governing coalition, the Bhumjaithai party. 

At the same time, the country’s long-running border dispute with Cambodia ignited into open warfare after the killing of a Cambodian soldier in May by the Thai army. 

Paetongtarn tried to calm the conflict by calling Hun Sen, the former Cambodian prime minister, who still wields tremendous power. In the call, which he leaked, Paetongtarn criticized a Thai general responsible for the border, while calling Hun Sen “uncle,” a term of respect in the region.  

The country erupted with protesters hitting the streets, calling for her resignation, while lawmakers filed a petition with the Constitutional Court on ethical grounds to remove her. 

The instability and political chaos are coming at a bad time for Thailand. The country is facing 36 percent tariffs from the US even as it grapples with high inflation, slowing growth, and declining tourism – a key sector – after the Chinese, its top tourists, have stayed away because of fears of being kidnapped.  

One problem is that the power brokers in the country, the monarchy, the military, and the business leaders, who have been trying to sideline Thaksin for decades – he is currently on trial for insulting the monarchy – need his populist party, the second largest in the country, to create a government. The alternative, which is even more unthinkable to them, is the progressives. 

That means anyone replacing the current prime minister would need support from either Pheu Thai or the People’s Party to hold a majority in the lower house. 

Meanwhile, only the People’s Party wants new elections because it is convinced it would win, while the other parties in power – such as Pheu Thai or the pro-military and conservative parties, face a backlash at the polls from their supporters for doing deals with parties their supporters also abhor.  

“Hence the worries about another coup,” wrote the Economist. “As things stand, the army will probably have to choose between patching things up with Thaksin’s populists or trying to work with (the People’s Party). It is reluctant to do either. A dozen coups d’état have not yet delivered a political system that makes the generals happy. That does not mean they will not try again.”