Ganging Up

The leaders of Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia agreed to boost cooperation and reinforce stability in the Horn of Africa, an agreement cementing “an axis against Ethiopia” that could exacerbate tensions in the region, Al Jazeera reported over the weekend.

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki hosted Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi in the capital Asmara for a three-way summit last Thursday.

Afterward, in a joint statement, the three presidents agreed to improve ties and discussed ways of “confronting interference in the internal affairs of the countries of the region under any pretext or justification.”

Analysts told the Africa Report that the summit comes as relations between the three countries and Ethiopia have grown increasingly rocky over the past few years. They added that the security agreement between the three could isolate land-locked Ethiopia.

It follows months of tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia after the former signed an agreement with Somaliland to lease a strip of coastline to build a naval base in the breakaway region.

The move infuriated Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory. In response, Somalia has threatened to expel Ethiopian forces that are part of the African Union’s peacekeeping mission to combat Islamist insurgents, Business Insider Africa noted.

The row prompted Egypt to exert more pressure on Ethiopia. The two countries have been at odds for years over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile that Cairo views as a threat to its water supply.

In August, Egypt and Somalia signed a military cooperation deal, which saw the latter receive two caches of weapons from Egypt.

Meanwhile, Eritrea has voiced concerns over Ethiopia’s maritime intentions, even though both countries signed a peace deal in 2018.

Ethiopia previously had access to the sea, but lost it following Eritrea’s independence in 1993.

Observers suggested that the Eritrean leader was also slighted by his country’s exclusion from peace talks following the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region from 2020 to 2022, in which Ethiopian and Eritrean forces fought against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

Although the summit reflects increased hostility toward Ethiopia, security analysts said that direct military confrontation seems unlikely in the near future because Somalia lacks the strength to challenge Ethiopia militarily, while Egypt is grappling with intense economic challenges.