Dissecting a Vote

The European Union this month said it would investigate if, and how, TikTok was used to meddle in the recent Romanian presidential election and how the China-based social media platform manages such risks.

That move followed a ruling by Romania’s top court to annul the results of the first round of the presidential election after an obscure far-right, pro-Russian candidate, Călin Georgescu, won the vote, the Associated Press reported. Romanian officials believe that Russia was behind an influence operation to promote Georgescu’s run for office similar to one carried out in Moldova recently.

Soon after the court’s decision, Romanian authorities declassified intelligence documents on the campaign that confirmed “aggressive hybrid Russian attacks” on the elections involving vote manipulation, campaign irregularities, and questionable funding, detailing links and substantial financial flows between the influencers and Georgescu’s campaign. Police then conducted raids targeting Georgescu’s supporters including one of his biggest backers, Bogdan Peșchir, who allegedly provided the campaign with Eur 1 million.

Meanwhile, police arrested mercenaries headed toward the capital with weapons in their cars, and tax officials began investigating the financial transactions linked to the campaign, also targeting Georgescu himself. The pressure led to some of those TikTok influencers helping the campaign to flee Romania.

Writing in the Guardian, journalist Paula Erizanu explained why Georgescu’s victory illustrated the dangers of Russian influence in the region. Georgescu wasn’t among the top five vote-getters before the first round, polling in the single digits before the election, according to opinion polls. He has not filed campaign finance reports. Yet he won almost a quarter of the Nov. 23 vote after ballots were counted.

“The burning issue is the need to know how and why,” Erizanu argued.

A political crisis spanning from the Romanian capital of Bucharest to the EU capital of Brussels is developing as a result. At the same time, the Romanian situation is stoking the fight over freedom of speech online between Europe’s right wing and its mainstream political groups, Politico wrote.

Meanwhile, Romanians who voted for him are angry that the government appears to be stifling their chosen candidate. On the campaign trail, he pledged to stop sending military and financial support to Ukraine, reduce his country’s participation in NATO, and push back against “the EU’s free-market economic rules and liberal values,” added the Courthouse News Service.

Many Romanians share Georgescu’s views that NATO and EU memberships have failed to benefit them. They believe the country’s aloof liberal leaders are out of touch with these realities, noted the Atlantic Council. The court’s decision to annul the election might have further undermined faith in the country’s status quo, too, added University of Portsmouth cybercrime expert Anda Iulia Solea.

On TikTok, meanwhile, false rumors are swirling that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen personally compelled Romanian officials to cancel the second round of voting while officials conducted their probe of the vote, Euronews wrote. Initially, Romania’s top court had upheld the results of the first round before reversing itself following the release of classified documents showing election irregularities, Al Jazeera noted.

Over the weekend, a Romanian investigative news outlet, Snoop, wrote that the center-right Liberal Party, a junior member of the outgoing coalition government, had paid for a social media campaign on TikTok via hired influencers but that campaign was hijacked to benefit Georgescu instead. Their candidate, Nicolae Ciucă, came in fifth in the first round.

TikTok, meanwhile, denied giving Georgescu special treatment. Russia said it was “indifferent” to the outcome of the elections, denying interference.

Now, what happens next is anyone’s guess, say analysts. What is clear is that there will be a do-over first round of the presidential election in 2025. But whether Georgescu will face off against centrist candidate Elena Lasconi is unclear. Georgescu may face charges related to the vote.

Georgescu says he’s done nothing wrong. He has denounced the court’s verdict as an “officialized coup” and an attack on democracy.

Still, other candidates are now jumping into the fray. For example, Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan recently announced he would run for president when elections are held again in 2025. He has pledged to fight the corruption that’s rampant in Romania, as well as Russian influence, to heal the country’s divisions.

“What happens next in the country, which ousted Communist rule 35 years ago, will be of critical importance to the European Union and Western powers,” wrote Australia’s Lowry Institute. “It is of crucial concern to the European Union and NATO: Romania is hosting construction of the alliance’s largest military base in Europe as the Ukraine conflict rages on with no end in sight yet.”

And for Romanians, it added, the wait goes on.