‘Everyone Is a Hardliner Now’: As the Ceasefire Holds, What Does Iran Do Next? 

Late last week, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke publicly for the first time since the ceasefire between Iran and Israel took hold on Tuesday.  

He was defiant as he claimed victory over Israel and the United States.  

“The Islamic republic slapped America in the face,” said Khamenei, 86, who had been in hiding for weeks. He bragged that Iran could attack US bases in the region at any time, adding that the strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities didn’t achieve “anything important”: “(Israel and the US) could not do anything, they could not achieve their goal, and they exaggerate to cover up the truth.”  

As the world received conflicting accounts of the damage done to Iran’s nuclear facilities – US President Donald Trump says they were destroyed, others argue the program was only set back by only a few months – analysts highlight a bigger question in the aftermath of the fighting and the ceasefire: What comes now?

Some believe the ceasefire is only a temporary respite from the fighting, which began on June 13, when Israel began its attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites, major cities such as Tehran, and other targets such as generals and those who oversaw the country’s nuclear program.  

They say they believe the fighting will resume because the goals of the Israeli strikes – to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program and a secondary aim of regime change – were not achieved.  

Others believe that the ceasefire will hold, and that future talks between the US and Iran could halt the fighting in the long term because the pressure is on Iran to make an agreement to limit its nuclear program. 

However, some analysts say that despite any upcoming negotiations, the question will continue to linger: Will Iran rebuild its program? Many believe so, explaining that the Israeli and US strikes made the Iranian regime look weak and undermined Khamenei’s hold on the country.  

Additionally, observers add, the Israeli strikes killed the old guard, which dominated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), those generals who believed in “strategic patience” and considered doing away with the country’s anti-Israel position. Now, their more “gung-ho” younger replacements have taken over the Corps, even as the IRGC is now dominating the central decision-making body of the country, the Shura. 

Some believe this group could threaten the truce while pushing ahead aggressively with Iran’s nuclear program in an effort to redeem national pride.  

“Any truce in the Middle East is precarious but this one is made especially complicated by a shift in power inside Iran triggered by the war,” wrote the Economist. “A new generation of generals have assumed command and gained ascendance over the clerics for the first time since Iran’s revolution in 1979… they are not cautious and their belligerence will shape Iran’s strategic ambitions long after the fighting stops.” 

Now everyone is a hardliner, it added.  

As a result, Alam Saleh of Australian National University told the BBC the attacks by Israel and the US will push Iran closer to developing nuclear weapons, as it has now had direct and prolonged confrontation with Israel, a nuclear-armed state, with the United States also directly engaging this time.  

Iran has also learned the lessons of Iraq and Libya, which were invaded after giving up their military or nuclear programs, he added. Iran, meanwhile, had a policy of pushing its nuclear program to the point of being very close to weaponization but without crossing the line. It has now learned it must go further.  

“Attacking Iran is not a strange or difficult task,” Saleh said. “The difficult part is achieving the goals of the attack. Israel claims the goal was to stop Iran’s nuclear program, which does not seem to have been achieved.” 

Instead, Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, says the country is even more determined to strengthen its nuclear program.  

“Our path is clear and the framework of our plans is clear,” he said. “These attacks do not have the slightest effect on our will and that of our colleagues – our forces are working with more faith, strength and vigor at all nuclear sites. Their morale has doubled after this attack… We assure the dear people of Iran that we will stand on this path to the end and will not retreat for a moment.”