Last Man Falling

Ukraine’s plan for victory against Russia is well-known. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently told Ukrainian lawmakers, the beleaguered former Soviet republic’s future rests on four pillars, the BBC reported.

First, the US and Europe must invite Ukraine to become a member of NATO. Second, the US and Europe must lift their prohibitions on long-range strikes into Russia using Western-supplied weaponry. Third, the Ukrainians must make clear that they will never surrender territory willingly. Fourth, the Ukrainians must continue their drive into Russia’s western Kursk region.

Obviously, that plan is easier said than done.

Experts speaking to Times Radio have noted that Zelenskyy might be more open to surrendering more territory to Russia than he is willing to admit publicly if he can secure NATO membership. Under this scenario, Zelenskyy would trade land for peace that American and European troops would guarantee.

These plans depend on the progress of the war, however.

Still, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius recently wrote that Ukrainian forces can’t hold out forever against Russia’s might, an assessment that is widely shared – and likely by the Ukrainian president, too. But Zelenskyy can also take heart at the damage Ukraine has been inflicting: Putin is losing more than 1,000 soldiers a day, Newsweek reported, for a death toll of as many as 200,000 and 400,000 wounded since the war began in February 2022, the Wall Street Journal reported. Meanwhile, Ukraine has seen about 80,000 troops killed with a similar number of wounded, the Journal added.

The situation is so dire that Russia is recruiting convicts by dangling pardons in exchange for enlisting. He is also luring foreign mercenaries – often just college students or unskilled laborers from South Asia or Africa – to fight. Recently, thousands of North Koreans have gone to Russia to take part in the war, a step that has led the US to threaten to lift certain restrictions on the use of its arms by Ukraine against Russia, Reuters reported.

Already, Ukraine has secured Western support for requests once deemed unrealistic, such as Patriot air defense systems and F-16 jets.

Still, as Politico wrote, many NATO leaders are wary of allowing Ukraine to join the alliance. They fear that doing so would put them on a path to war with Russia, a conflict that could escalate into a nuclear exchange. The most hawkish NATO members, like Poland and the Baltic countries – all of whom have direct experience under Russian dominance – are more open to the idea, however.

NATO membership is especially important because ending the war without protecting Ukraine permanently opens the door for Russia to regroup and launch another invasion in the future, warned World Politics Review. Such a “frozen conflict” would allow Russia to claim territory seized illegally while cementing the commercial and military ties that Putin has either expanded or developed with China, Iran, and North Korea despite Western sanctions.

The upcoming American elections play a huge role in the issue. Vice President Kamala Harris is more likely to continue President Joe Biden’s policy of supplying arms and intelligence to Ukraine. Challenger and former President Donald Trump has said he would seek to end the war quickly.

Still, US reaction to the “Victory Plan” was noncommittal, though it did issue a new $425 million package of security assistance for Ukraine the day that Zelenskyy presented the plan to lawmakers, wrote the Washington Post.

In Europe, reactions ranged from support by the French and the United Kingdom to opposition from Hungary, which has the closest relationship with Russia in the European Union. Still, some countries such as Germany – Kyiv’s second largest military backer after the US – are growing weary of supporting Ukraine, especially as far-right parties, who oppose the support, gain traction with voters.

But analysts say that Ukraine will struggle to continue its war in spite of Russia’s losses. Ukraine’s Kursk operation, intended to distract the Russians from eastern Ukraine, is failing in that goal. Instead, the Russians are advancing toward the strategic hub of Pokrovsk and making gains elsewhere, Reuters reported.

Ukraine is also struggling as winter approaches – Russia has destroyed a significant portion of Ukraine’s power grid and that has led to daily blackouts. Meanwhile, the government is having great difficulties recruiting and training enough troops. Morale among troops and the public is low. As the Economist wrote, “There is a growing gap between the total victory many Ukrainians say they want, and their willingness or ability to fight for it.”

The best Ukraine can hope for, say analysts, is to remain standing.

“To win such war (of attrition), Ukraine needs to increase its resilience and exhaust its opponent,” Glib Voloskyi, an analyst from the Ukrainian think tank Come Back Alive Initiatives Center, told the Associated Press. “The side that falls last wins.”