The Scent of Desperation

Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili had a question recently for Bidzina Ivanishvili, a pro-Russian billionaire oligarch and former prime minister who is widely viewed as the most powerful person in the former Soviet republic on the Black Sea.

“Where are you taking Georgia?” she rhetorically asked Ivanishvili in an interview with Politico.

“I’m not into conspiracy theories, but it might be (part of) a (plot),” she added, referring to an about-face by Ivanishvili’s party, Georgia Dream, to commit to setting the country on the path toward joining the European Union, a direction it had previously long opposed.

That alleged plot involves widening Russian influence in the South Caucasus country as voters prepare to elect a new parliament on Oct. 26. Even so, supporting Russia in Georgia is “politically radioactive,” wrote World Politics Review, noting that almost 80 percent of Georgians want to join the EU. That’s the reason for Georgia Dream’s back-tracking.

More true to form, Ivanishvili has suggested that his country might make peace with two breakaway regions – Abkhazia and South Ossetia – in Georgia: Russia invaded the country in 2008 and recognized the regions as independent states in a move that foreshadowed the situation in the east of Ukraine, reported Reuters.

Meanwhile, Ivanishvili appears to be gunning for Zourabichvili, who, born in France to Georgian political dissidents who fled the Soviet Union, supports her country’s bid to become part of the EU.

Lawmakers in the ruling Georgia Dream party have renewed their push to impeach the president, saying she violated the country’s constitution by making unpermitted diplomatic visits to Brussels, France and Germany, Le Monde reported. A similar effort failed last year.

Zourabichvili for her part has been meeting with opposition lawmakers in an attempt to forge a new coalition government that would oust Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and enact a more pro-Western agenda, wrote Le Monde.

She has framed the Oct. 26 election as a crossroads. “We have a quasi-referendum on the choice between Europe or a return to an uncertain Russian past,” she told Agence France-Presse.

Analysts at the Foreign Policy Research Institute agreed, writing that while Georgia, which lies at the crossroads of energy and trade networks between Europe, Russia and China, took a pro-Western turn in the so-called Rose Revolution of 2003, its leaders have been seeking to shore up its ties with the more autocratic East.

Georgia Dream-sponsored laws, like the recent anti-LGBTQ legislation banning Pride events, as well as targeting non-governmental organizations and media outlets, are examples of the trend. Russia has adopted similar laws over the past few years.

Still, Russian leaders have denied they are seeking to exert undue influence in Georgia, reported Commersant, a Georgia-based news outlet. They claimed that if anyone was meddling in Georgian politics, it was Western politicians seeking to bring the country under their influence.

Western leaders, however, haven’t of late been cozying up to Georgia. The United Kingdom, for example, has suspended military discussions with Georgia, citing democratic backsliding, reported Devdiscourse.

Laura Linderman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of the American Foreign Policy Council, said Georgia, as it holds this election, “stands at a pivotal juncture.” That is because Georgia Dream “appears increasingly willing to resort to drastic measures” to maintain its grip on power as it is bleeding voters. For example, the party recently indicated that it would ban the country’s political opposition if it wins a majority in the upcoming elections.

That’s not likely to happen, say analysts, because there is growing discontent among Georgian voters, fueled by the government’s authoritarian measures and its failure to address critical economic and social issues.

Still, if it does, it could set off another revolution in the country, wrote Carnegie Politika.

“Now Georgia Dream is effectively declaring that if the opposition loses the upcoming election, it may lose its legal means of fighting for power in the future,” it wrote, adding, “there is no reason to believe that this is a bluff. In other words, the authorities themselves are putting the opposition in a situation where street battles will be key to its survival.”