Holding It Together

Those who remember the years of chaos and instability that plagued Iraq after the US-led invasion of 2003 might find it astonishing that today, the country is perhaps one of the most stable in the Middle East.

Part of that is due to the high price of oil in recent years and how that has helped smooth over some social divisions. Meanwhile, the Artawi oil field in southern Iraq is expecting a boom, wrote Bahrain-based Iraqi News. And energy giant BP and Iraqi leaders recently sealed a deal to expand production of crude.

Under Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani, the governing Shiite Coordination Framework (SCF) has consolidated power in opposition to Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, explained Reuters, and asserted its dominance over the Sunni Muslim and Kurdish political forces who represent the second- and third-largest communities in the country.

This balancing act is not perfect. The SCF is still deeply divided, noted the French Research Center on Iraq. But it is enough given how the US still has troops deployed in Iraq, offending many Iraqis who want them to leave, Al Arabiya News reported.

The SCF has also avoided trouble by not becoming too involved in the regional crisis following Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Iraqi officials have persuaded local militias to stop their attacks against Israel, for instance, Haaretz reported. They have also curbed oil exports to Syria after the ousting of Syrian President Bashar Assad, waiting to see if the rebel group that managed this and took over in the aftermath are radical jihadists, added OilPrice.com.

Now, however, that stability faces a test when voters elect a new parliament in October 2025, wrote World Politics Review.

To start with, the first comprehensive census in years will likely change the makeup of parliament, Foreign Policy magazine wrote. Previous census numbers undercounted Kurds and other minorities, meaning those groups will likely gain more power under the new count. But these changes could also upset the delicate balance that now holds between Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds.

Also, the new parliament will vote on three contentious laws that current lawmakers have put aside, wrote Shafaq News. Each one could unravel the uneasy truce between Iraqi factions.

One involves a Shiite-backed proposal to change marriage, divorce, inheritance, and child custody laws. Critics have said that it would give Muslim clerics too much power over decisions affecting the family instead of the courts. It could also lower the age of marriage for females to 9 years old. A second backed by Sunnis would grant amnesty to alleged terrorists, including potentially Islamic State members. A third would restore property stolen from Kurds before Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was brought down in 2003.

Meanwhile, Iraq might get dragged into the vacuum left by the diminished power of Iranian proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza – despite its best attempts to stay out of region-wide fights, says the Economist.

Iran sponsors paramilitary forces like al-Nujaba under its direct command, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, another umbrella of militias that Iran pays and supplies, the magazine added, noting that the latter has set off dozens of rockets and drones at Israel and attacked American bases. “Israel’s killing of Hamas and Hezbollah commanders has left a vacuum in Arab leadership of the axis,” it added. “Some Iraqi militiamen might be eager to fill it.”