Risks and Rewards

Polls show that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan will likely lose its majority in the lower house of parliament after the country’s election on Oct. 27. Such a loss would potentially end both Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s term in office just a month after he took the job, and the grip on power that the LDP has held in the country since 2012.

The LDP might need to depend on coalition partner Komeito – an offshoot of Japan’s biggest Buddhist lay organization – to provide the extra seats necessary to keep Ishiba in office, meaning the prime minister will need to grant concessions to the party or become the leader of the opposition, Reuters reported.

In particular, Komeito could compel the government to take a more dovish approach to military affairs. In recent years, Japan has built up its military to counter China’s rising power but has retained its strategic dependence on the US at a time when many Americans have expressed an interest in reducing their entanglements abroad, Asia Times explained.

Ironically, Ishiba might have brought this situation upon himself, analysts say. The LDP’s support has been shaky due to political scandals involving unreported campaign financing and kickbacks to party officials, as well as his predecessors’ failure to address public discontent over higher living costs and stagnant incomes, the BBC explained.

As a result, Ishiba dissolved parliament and called a snap election a week after he became prime minister – and a year before he was required to do so under the law – in a bid to catch his opponents off guard, Hosei University economist Craig Mark wrote in the Conversation.

“I have positioned this election as an election for the rebirth of Japan,” said Ishiba at a campaign event in the northern prefecture of Fukushima, according to the Financial Times. “I will trust the people, tell the truth without lies or deception, and talk about the Japan that should be.”

Luckily for him, the opposition is fragmented between five political parties. The biggest, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, has been hammering Ishiba and the LDP on the slush-fund scandals, portraying the LDP’s response to the scandals as inadequate, and arguing that it is time for a change in Japan, Kyoto News reported. The LDP has run the country for most of the postwar era.

Still, researchers at Chatham House believe Ishiba’s gamble might pay off.

Ishiba rose to power in the LDP as a reformer who pledged to clean things up and find solutions to the problems that preoccupy voters. Accordingly, he’s focused on local issues and local economic development, particularly in rural areas that feel excluded from the prosperity evident in Tokyo and other big cities.

If the resulting reduction in LDP seats is as small as possible, “Ishiba will not only gain a strong position within the LDP as the leader who won the election, but also as the prime minister who has the public’s support,” Chatham House wrote, adding that such an outcome would stabilize Japanese politics and its foreign and security policies. “Whether Ishiba can be a successful prime minister or not depends on this general election.”